Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>300750 SZ/1211 HK: CATL launched 2nd generation Shenxing LFP battery, surprassing BYD in fast charging (///)</li>
<li>ATAT US : Hotel RevPAR Decline Narrows Marginally  (+ /+)</li>
<li>NIO US: ONVO L90 Appears in MIIT's New Vehicle List(+)</li>
</ul>


300750 SZ/1211 HK: CATL launched 2nd generation Shenxing LFP battery, surprassing BYD in fast charging (///)
ATAT US : Hotel RevPAR Decline Narrows Marginally  (+ /+)
NIO US: ONVO L90 Appears in MIIT's New Vehicle List(+)


[Blue Lotus Daily]:300750 SZ/1211 HK/ATAT US/NIO US

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>In this report, we summarize the Mar 2025 price discounts at dealers for major automakers.</li><li>Note that Mar discounts for each automaker are calculated based on the weighted average of Feb 2025 retail sales volume for each model, as Mar 2025 retail sales volume data have not been released yet.</li><li>The industrywide average discounts narrowed by 0.1ppts MoM in Mar 2025, based on our calculations, thanks to the narrowing discounts from some German brands (VW, Audi). </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

In this report, we summarize the Mar 2025 price discounts at dealers for major automakers.Note that Mar discounts for each automaker are calculated based on the weighted average of Feb 2025 retail sales volume for each model, as Mar 2025 retail sales volume data have not been released yet.The industrywide average discounts narrowed by 0.1ppts MoM in Mar 2025, based on our calculations, thanks to the narrowing discounts from some German brands (VW, Audi). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto - 1Q25 Sales Volume, Discounts May Lead to Larger Earnings Divergence

<ul>
<li>China's economic data continued to be mixed. The on-again-off-again patter is here to stay. PBOC's stated policy to follow the US means Trumponomics's next read is critical to China, too;</li>
<li>Whether it is positive or negative to our sector depends on whether the view is half full or half empty. Stimulus will increasingly become irrelevant;</li>
<li>China EV posted strong numbers which cannot be explained by trade-in subsidy alone. Earning flash of Xiaomi, LI and Zeekr. </li>
</ul>


China's economic data continued to be mixed. The on-again-off-again patter is here to stay. PBOC's stated policy to follow the US means Trumponomics's next read is critical to China, too;
Whether it is positive or negative to our sector depends on whether the view is half full or half empty. Stimulus will increasingly become irrelevant;
China EV posted strong numbers which cannot be explained by trade-in subsidy alone. Earning flash of Xiaomi, LI and Zeekr. 


[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 12/52] Choice of the Less Evil Between Trumponomics' Outcomes

<ul>
<li>A translated article shows why Chinese are refrained from buying new homes but not so on buying existing homes. The Chinese <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/1pMRYOjIIzxxU1G_J90dNvf_zUKNuU_LYOhnWrtM5O5I/edit?tab=t.0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">link</a> is here. <a href="https://docs.google.com/document/d/13W_8_9qyOHx2RIOYF2rGKEyHmPDO9eO5-nE8Pa5IADk/edit?tab=t.0" target="_blank" rel="noopener">English</a> here by Qwen;</li>
<li>XPeng, Xiaomi, Zeekr and BYD recovered above the line post CNY in EV delivery, LI, Tesla, LEAP and Luxeed in line, AITO, Deepal and NIO are below the line;</li>
<li>CATL's JV with Didi is a serious threat to NIO.</li>
</ul>


A translated article shows why Chinese are refrained from buying new homes but not so on buying existing homes. The Chinese link is here. English here by Qwen;
XPeng, Xiaomi, Zeekr and BYD recovered above the line post CNY in EV delivery, LI, Tesla, LEAP and Luxeed in line, AITO, Deepal and NIO are below the line;
CATL's JV with Didi is a serious threat to NIO.


[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 8/52] Existing Home Recovers First Post CNY

<ul>
<li>Abnormally high growth during CNY of the express delivery parcel data showed social gift giving likely bumped up 20ppt YoY growth this CNY;</li>
<li>BYD plans to extend ADS to its low priced cars. 2025 will be a year L3 ADS extending to mainstream EV's now this prediction is even conservative;</li>
<li>Chinese EV makers are launching free price wars. But zero financing may be prompted by the banks, not by EV makers, mitigating margin impact.</li>
</ul>


Abnormally high growth during CNY of the express delivery parcel data showed social gift giving likely bumped up 20ppt YoY growth this CNY;
BYD plans to extend ADS to its low priced cars. 2025 will be a year L3 ADS extending to mainstream EV's now this prediction is even conservative;
Chinese EV makers are launching free price wars. But zero financing may be prompted by the banks, not by EV makers, mitigating margin impact.


[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 6/52] Express Delivery Showed Social Gift Took off During CNY

China

NIO Inc. manufactures and sells automobiles. The Company offers electric vehicles and parts, as well as provides battery charging services. NIO serves customers worldwide.

Price Gauge
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NIO (NIO US)

[Blue Lotus Daily]:300750 SZ/1211 HK/ATAT US/NIO US

CATL surpasses BYD in fast charging with 2nd generation Shenxing LFP battery. Hotel RevPAR decline narrows slightly. ONVO L90 from NIO appears in...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Auto - 1Q25 Sales Volume, Discounts May Lead to Larger Earnings Divergence

Note that Mar discounts for each automaker are calculated based on the weighted average of Feb 2025 retail sales volume for each model

CMB International

[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 12/52] Choice of the Less Evil Between Trumponomics' Outcomes

China's economic data remains mixed, with PBOC closely following US policy. Stimulus may become irrelevant as China's EV sector sees strong growth...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 8/52] Existing Home Recovers First Post CNY

Chinese prefer buying existing homes over new ones, XPeng, Xiaomi, Zeekr, and BYD lead in EV delivery post CNY, CATL's JV with Didi poses a threat...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Blue Lotus Daily]:300750 SZ/1211 HK/ATAT US/NIO US

​CATL surpasses BYD in fast charging with 2nd generation Shenxing LFP battery. Hotel RevPAR decline narrows slightly. ONVO L90 from NIO appears in...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Auto - 1Q25 Sales Volume, Discounts May Lead to Larger Earnings Divergence

Note that Mar discounts for each automaker are calculated based on the weighted average of Feb 2025 retail sales volume for each model

CMB International

[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 12/52] Choice of the Less Evil Between Trumponomics' Outcomes

​China's economic data remains mixed, with PBOC closely following US policy. Stimulus may become irrelevant as China's EV sector sees strong growth...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 8/52] Existing Home Recovers First Post CNY

​Chinese prefer buying existing homes over new ones, XPeng, Xiaomi, Zeekr, and BYD lead in EV delivery post CNY, CATL's JV with Didi poses a threat...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 6/52] Express Delivery Showed Social Gift Took off During CNY

​CNY gift giving boosts express delivery growth, BYD to add ADS to low priced cars, Chinese EV makers engage in price wars with potential financing...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

CATL surpasses BYD in fast charging with 2nd generation Shenxing LFP battery. Hotel RevPAR decline narrows slightly. ONVO L90 from NIO appears in...

China's economic data remains mixed, with PBOC closely following US policy. Stimulus may become irrelevant as China's EV sector sees strong growth...

Chinese prefer buying existing homes over new ones, XPeng, Xiaomi, Zeekr, and BYD lead in EV delivery post CNY, CATL's JV with Didi poses a threat...

CNY gift giving boosts express delivery growth, BYD to add ADS to low priced cars, Chinese EV makers engage in price wars with potential financing...