Blue Lotus China New Economy Research, Blue Lotus Research Institute

Eric Wen

Blue Lotus China New Economy Research

China growth and global non-US Internet equities

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus Research is a Hong Kong Type 4 Licensed investment advisory firm focusing on Chinese growth equities and global non-US Internet equities

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Employment picture worsened in December. We believe Chinese government will erect hiring-related corporate subsidy in 2025;</li>
<li>Early attempts at street drink overseas have failed. But new attempts from Luckin might well work, over time;</li>
<li>Tesla's new Model Y received a raving reception from Chinese consumers. But we doubt it can last.</li>
</ul>


Employment picture worsened in December. We believe Chinese government will erect hiring-related corporate subsidy in 2025;
Early attempts at street drink overseas have failed. But new attempts from Luckin might well work, over time;
Tesla's new Model Y received a raving reception from Chinese consumers. But we doubt it can last.


[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 4/52] Luckin Coffee's Overseas Expansion Is Worth Waiting For

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>We are of the view that 4Q24 earnings of Geely, BYD and Li Auto could continue to be more resilient than most peers.</li><li>Net losses of Xpeng could narrow QoQ in 4Q24, while that of NIO may continue to widen QoQ, in our view.</li><li>Leapmotor turned profitable for the first time on a quarterly basis in 4Q24, stronger than most investors’ expectation. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We are of the view that 4Q24 earnings of Geely, BYD and Li Auto could continue to be more resilient than most peers.Net losses of Xpeng could narrow QoQ in 4Q24, while that of NIO may continue to widen QoQ, in our view.Leapmotor turned profitable for the first time on a quarterly basis in 4Q24, stronger than most investors’ expectation. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto - 4Q24 Earnings Preview: Growing Divergence

<ul>
<li>Despite wide market skepticism,  macro data pointed to shaky but persist recovery. If Trump Tariff 2.0 is delayed, a macro policy overdose is possible; </li>
<li>What does China's EV sector look like in 2025? Our take is robust growth coupled with continuous exits and consolidations;</li>
<li>Is reckless price war the inevitable China story line? Luckin, BYD and Xiaomi showed they want something different this week.</li>
</ul>


Despite wide market skepticism,  macro data pointed to shaky but persist recovery. If Trump Tariff 2.0 is delayed, a macro policy overdose is possible; 
What does China's EV sector look like in 2025? Our take is robust growth coupled with continuous exits and consolidations;
Is reckless price war the inevitable China story line? Luckin, BYD and Xiaomi showed they want something different this week.


[Blue Lotus China Growth Equity Weekly (3/52)] Recovery Persist, Focus on Profitablity New

<ul>
<li>China's 2025 trade-in subsidies now include smartphones and ICE vehicles, but with a price caveat that excludes Apple, positive for Xiaomi and JD.com;</li>
<li>China limits export of LFP battery technology, but lowers import tax again;</li>
<li>ICE-Turned EV makers continue to enjoy product superiority. The watchouts for 2025 are BYD and Geely. Tesla's sales may peter out from C2H25.</li>
</ul>


China's 2025 trade-in subsidies now include smartphones and ICE vehicles, but with a price caveat that excludes Apple, positive for Xiaomi and JD.com;
China limits export of LFP battery technology, but lowers import tax again;
ICE-Turned EV makers continue to enjoy product superiority. The watchouts for 2025 are BYD and Geely. Tesla's sales may peter out from C2H25.


Blue Lotus China Growth Equity Weekly (2/2025): Tesla Heading into a Different Chinese EV Market

<ul><li>We summarize the Dec 2024 leading indicators as below, including the number of leads, customer flows and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng, BYD and Aion.</li><li>Note that such data are based on a sample size of 96 stores (15-18 stores for each brand) in 15 cities in China.</li><li>The following data reflect same-store metrics, and the metrics on a company level could be better than these figures, as most players are still expanding their sales network.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

We summarize the Dec 2024 leading indicators as below, including the number of leads, customer flows and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li Auto, Xpeng, BYD and Aion.Note that such data are based on a sample size of 96 stores (15-18 stores for each brand) in 15 cities in China.The following data reflect same-store metrics, and the metrics on a company level could be better than these figures, as most players are still expanding their sales network.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Auto - Jan 2025 NEV Sales to Fall MoM Despite Solid Dec Leading Indicators

China

NIO Inc. manufactures and sells automobiles. The Company offers electric vehicles and parts, as well as provides battery charging services. NIO serves customers worldwide.

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NIO (NIO US)

[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 4/52] Luckin Coffee's Overseas Expansion Is Worth Waiting For

Employment deteriorated in December. We believe government will need to introduce hiring-related corporate subsidies in the March Two Session. ...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Auto - 4Q24 Earnings Preview: Growing Divergence

We are of the view that 4Q24 earnings of Geely, BYD and Li Auto could continue to be more resilient than most peers. Net losses of Xpeng could...

CMB International

[Blue Lotus China Growth Equity Weekly (3/52)] Recovery Persist, Focus on Profitablity New

This week's macro data pointed to gradual recovery. We also found new focus on profitability by leading companies, which is a good sign.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus China Growth Equity Weekly (2/2025): Tesla Heading into a Different Chinese EV Market

2025 trade-in subsidies favor Xiaomi and JD.com. China's new measure at limiting LFP battery exports added on export bans. Geely is new player at...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Auto - Jan 2025 NEV Sales to Fall MoM Despite Solid Dec Leading Indicators

We summarize the Dec 2024 leading indicators as below, including the number of leads, customer flows and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li...

CMB International

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

[Blue Lotus China New Consumer Weekly, 4/52] Luckin Coffee's Overseas Expansion Is Worth Waiting For

​Employment deteriorated in December. We believe government will need to introduce hiring-related corporate subsidies in the March Two Session. ...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Auto - 4Q24 Earnings Preview: Growing Divergence

We are of the view that 4Q24 earnings of Geely, BYD and Li Auto could continue to be more resilient than most peers. Net losses of Xpeng could...

CMB International

[Blue Lotus China Growth Equity Weekly (3/52)] Recovery Persist, Focus on Profitablity New

This week's macro data pointed to gradual recovery. We also found new focus on profitability by leading companies, which is a good sign.

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Blue Lotus China Growth Equity Weekly (2/2025): Tesla Heading into a Different Chinese EV Market

2025 trade-in subsidies favor Xiaomi and JD.com. China's new measure at limiting LFP battery exports added on export bans. Geely is new player at...

Blue Lotus Research Institute

Auto - Jan 2025 NEV Sales to Fall MoM Despite Solid Dec Leading Indicators

We summarize the Dec 2024 leading indicators as below, including the number of leads, customer flows and new orders generated, for Tesla, NIO, Li...

CMB International

Employment deteriorated in December. We believe government will need to introduce hiring-related corporate subsidies in the March Two Session. ...