Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Once driven by domestic infrastructure and shipbuilding, Japan’s steel industry is now navigating aging demand and declining consumption by pivoting to exports and specialty steel.</li>
<li>Japanese steelmakers are embracing high-grade flat steel exports, electric arc furnace (EAF) transitions, and decarbonization-linked innovation — while deepening select offshore bets like AM/NS India and JSW Steel.</li>
<li>JFE offers deep value via JSW exposure; Kobe adds margin stability through EAF and engineering, while Nippon faces capex strain and U.S. Steel integration risk.</li>
</ul>


Once driven by domestic infrastructure and shipbuilding, Japan’s steel industry is now navigating aging demand and declining consumption by pivoting to exports and specialty steel.
Japanese steelmakers are embracing high-grade flat steel exports, electric arc furnace (EAF) transitions, and decarbonization-linked innovation — while deepening select offshore bets like AM/NS India and JSW Steel.
JFE offers deep value via JSW exposure; Kobe adds margin stability through EAF and engineering, while Nippon faces capex strain and U.S. Steel integration risk.


Japan Steel: From Domestic Giant to Export-Driven Value Play

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Coronado Global Resources Inc / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Declining coking coal prices, operational issues, a credit rating downgrade, and Sev.en Global's failed Offer, have resulted in met coal play <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coronado-global-resources-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27473:1" rel="noopener">Coronado (CRN AU)</a></strong>'s shares trading around an all-time low. </li>
<li>Shares popped 14.8% today, and are now up ~48% from its all-time low a month ago.</li>
<li>What gives? Coronado has already confirmed the potential sale of a minority interest in certain assets. But there is speculation a full Offer may be in the wings.</li>
</ul>


Declining coking coal prices, operational issues, a credit rating downgrade, and Sev.en Global's failed Offer, have resulted in met coal play Coronado (CRN AU)'s shares trading around an all-time low. 
Shares popped 14.8% today, and are now up ~48% from its all-time low a month ago.
What gives? Coronado has already confirmed the potential sale of a minority interest in certain assets. But there is speculation a full Offer may be in the wings.


Coronado Global (CRN AU): Partial/Full Sale? Something's Up (As Is The Share Price)

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Commodity trends remain bifurcated: gold, copper, and uranium are surging, while iron ore, and coal struggle under oversupply and weak demand.</li>
<li>Top picks: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24628:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shandong-gold-mining-co-ltd-4527fb98-bb5d-4d74-91fe-66f9c0224eb3" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27455:1" rel="noopener">Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jsw-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18561:1" rel="noopener">JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lloyds-metals-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15467:1" rel="noopener">Lloyds Metals &amp; Energy (LYDM IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/paladin-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10117:1" rel="noopener">Paladin Energy (PDN AU)</a> </li>
<li>Top shorts: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hindalco-industries-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18490:1" rel="noopener">Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-steel-corporation" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:961:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/coal-india-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:9117:1" rel="noopener">Coal India Ltd (COAL IN)</a><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/tata-steel-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20934:1" rel="noopener">Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN)</a> </li>
</ul>


Commodity trends remain bifurcated: gold, copper, and uranium are surging, while iron ore, and coal struggle under oversupply and weak demand.
Top picks: Zijin Mining Group (601899 CH)Shandong Gold Mining (1787 HK)JSW Steel Ltd (JSTL IN), Lloyds Metals &amp; Energy (LYDM IN) , Paladin Energy (PDN AU) 
Top shorts: Hindalco Industries (HNDL IN) , Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)Coal India Ltd (COAL IN)Tata Steel Ltd (TATA IN) 


Global Metals & Mining Playbook – July 2025

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jun 20th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD17,331m.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Advantest, Disco, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Lasertec, Skylark, Isuzu Motors, Softbank, Joyful Honda, Nippon Steel, Mitsubishi Ufj Financial.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in margin trading positions of JPX stocks as of Jun 20th. The aggregated net margin trading position is USD17,331m.
We tabulate league tables for top/bottom net long/short of margin trading by value, net margin buy as multiple of ADT.
We highlight net margin buy/sell changes in Advantest, Disco, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Lasertec, Skylark, Isuzu Motors, Softbank, Joyful Honda, Nippon Steel, Mitsubishi Ufj Financial.


JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 20th): Advantest, Disco, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Lasertec

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>JFE Holdings rebounded from COVID-era losses to deliver peak earnings in FY22, followed by a gradual normalization through FY25, with stable steel volumes but declining margins amid weak domestic demand.</li>
<li>The group is investing ¥970B (~$6.5B) through FY2030 across decarbonization, product upgrades (e.g., electrical steel, galvanizing), and overseas downstream expansion to sustain competitiveness.</li>
<li>Adjusting for its ₹910B (~¥1.7T) JSW stake, ~30% of EV, JFE trades at just 2.7x EV/EBITDA—deeply discounted vs peers like Nippon Steel and POSCO.</li>
</ul>


JFE Holdings rebounded from COVID-era losses to deliver peak earnings in FY22, followed by a gradual normalization through FY25, with stable steel volumes but declining margins amid weak domestic demand.
The group is investing ¥970B (~$6.5B) through FY2030 across decarbonization, product upgrades (e.g., electrical steel, galvanizing), and overseas downstream expansion to sustain competitiveness.
Adjusting for its ₹910B (~¥1.7T) JSW stake, ~30% of EV, JFE trades at just 2.7x EV/EBITDA—deeply discounted vs peers like Nippon Steel and POSCO.


JFE Holdings (5411 JP) – Stable Core, Strategic JSW Stake, and Deep-Value Opportunity

Japan

Nippon Steel Corp is an integrated steel maker. The Company produces various types of steel products used for industrial machinery & equipment and exports them worldwide.  Nippon Steel provides plant construction and urban development and also develops new businesses such as chemicals, ceramics, electronic equipment and information & communication systems.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Nippon Steel Corporation (5401 JP)

Japan Steel: From Domestic Giant to Export-Driven Value Play

Japan's steel industry shifts focus to exports and specialty steel amid declining domestic demand, embracing innovation and offshore investments...

Rahul Jain

Global Metals & Mining Playbook – July 2025

Commodity trends show gold, copper, and uranium surging, while iron ore and coal struggle. Top picks include Zijin Mining Group, Shandong Gold...

Rahul Jain

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 20th): Advantest, Disco, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Lasertec

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Advantest (6857 JP), Disco (6146 JP), Mitsubishi Heavy Industries...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

JFE Holdings (5411 JP) – Stable Core, Strategic JSW Stake, and Deep-Value Opportunity

JFE Holdings sees peak earnings in FY22, plans investments in decarbonization and product upgrades to sustain competitiveness, trading at a...

Rahul Jain

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Japan Steel: From Domestic Giant to Export-Driven Value Play

​Japan's steel industry shifts focus to exports and specialty steel amid declining domestic demand, embracing innovation and offshore investments...

Rahul Jain

Coronado Global (CRN AU): Partial/Full Sale? Something's Up (As Is The Share Price)

At 0.1x P/B, trading around a lifetime low share price, and talk of a possible sale of assets, even if partial, you're hard pressed to be bearish...

David Blennerhassett

Global Metals & Mining Playbook – July 2025

​Commodity trends show gold, copper, and uranium surging, while iron ore and coal struggle. Top picks include Zijin Mining Group, Shandong Gold...

Rahul Jain

JPX Margin Trading Weekly (Jun 20th): Advantest, Disco, Mitsubishi Heavy Industries, Lasertec

We analyzed JPX margin trading positions report for the past week and highlighted Advantest (6857 JP), Disco (6146 JP), Mitsubishi Heavy Industries...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

JFE Holdings (5411 JP) – Stable Core, Strategic JSW Stake, and Deep-Value Opportunity

​JFE Holdings sees peak earnings in FY22, plans investments in decarbonization and product upgrades to sustain competitiveness, trading at a...

Rahul Jain

Japan's steel industry shifts focus to exports and specialty steel amid declining domestic demand, embracing innovation and offshore investments...

Commodity trends show gold, copper, and uranium surging, while iron ore and coal struggle. Top picks include Zijin Mining Group, Shandong Gold...

JFE Holdings sees peak earnings in FY22, plans investments in decarbonization and product upgrades to sustain competitiveness, trading at a...