India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

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Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

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Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>NLCIL has outlined a transformative Rs. 1.17 lakh crore capex plan and guided to a 42% PAT growth from FY26E to FY28E.
</li>
<li>This dual-pronged strategy balances India’s persistent base-load thermal power need with an aggressive pivot towards 10 GW of renewable energy by FY30.
</li>
<li>The substantial planned capacity additions and robust financial guidance suggest NLCIL is poised for material earnings expansion, necessitating a fresh look at long-term valuation multiples.</li>
</ul>


NLCIL has outlined a transformative Rs. 1.17 lakh crore capex plan and guided to a 42% PAT growth from FY26E to FY28E.

This dual-pronged strategy balances India’s persistent base-load thermal power need with an aggressive pivot towards 10 GW of renewable energy by FY30.

The substantial planned capacity additions and robust financial guidance suggest NLCIL is poised for material earnings expansion, necessitating a fresh look at long-term valuation multiples.


The Beat Ideas: NLC India-A 1.17 Lakh Crores Capex, Renewable Focus

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<ul><li>Thermal &amp; Lignite Power Plants Status: Ghatampur Unit I is fully operational and is profitable now.</li><li>Ghatampur Unit II (660 MW) completed its operational trial run recently and awaits COD shortly (earlier guidance Sep’25; delay due to monsoon).</li><li>660 MW Unit III COD targeted for Jan/Feb’26 (from Dec’25). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Thermal &amp; Lignite Power Plants Status: Ghatampur Unit I is fully operational and is profitable now.Ghatampur Unit II (660 MW) completed its operational trial run recently and awaits COD shortly (earlier guidance Sep’25; delay due to monsoon).660 MW Unit III COD targeted for Jan/Feb’26 (from Dec’25). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NLC India Limited - Q2FY26 Investors’ Meet: Expansion Projects Broadly on Track

<ul><li>Power Generation Gradually Picking Up: The company’s gross generation in Q2FY26 stood at 6,767 MW, up 2% YoY and QoQ. As per CEA data, the company’s Thermal Power Generation stood at 6,179 MU in Q2FY26, up 2% YoY and QoQ.</li><li>Notably, strong improvement was seen in the PLF of TPS-II expansion after completion of modifications (PLF in Q2FY26 stood at 43% vs 20% in Q1FY26 and 26% in Q2FY25).</li><li>EBITDA Ahead of Estimates; PAT Miss: NLCIL’s EBITDA increased by 30%/50% YoY/QoQ to Rs 1,400 Cr, 8% beat on consensus estimates.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Power Generation Gradually Picking Up: The company’s gross generation in Q2FY26 stood at 6,767 MW, up 2% YoY and QoQ. As per CEA data, the company’s Thermal Power Generation stood at 6,179 MU in Q2FY26, up 2% YoY and QoQ.Notably, strong improvement was seen in the PLF of TPS-II expansion after completion of modifications (PLF in Q2FY26 stood at 43% vs 20% in Q1FY26 and 26% in Q2FY25).EBITDA Ahead of Estimates; PAT Miss: NLCIL’s EBITDA increased by 30%/50% YoY/QoQ to Rs 1,400 Cr, 8% beat on consensus estimates.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

NLC India Limited  - Improved Power Generation; PAT Down Due to Lower Other Income

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The Shift to Expansion (The Setup): While global crosscurrents and volatile commodity prices continue to create headline noise, our quantitative macro dashboard confirms a definitive shift into an 'Expansion' regime.</li><li>Strengthening domestic economic activity and stabilizing liquidity are providing a solid, measurable foundation for cyclical risk-taking.</li><li>Broad Market Exhaustion: Despite the stronger underlying economic backdrop, the headline stock market remains choppy and inefficient. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The Shift to Expansion (The Setup): While global crosscurrents and volatile commodity prices continue to create headline noise, our quantitative macro dashboard confirms a definitive shift into an 'Expansion' regime.Strengthening domestic economic activity and stabilizing liquidity are providing a solid, measurable foundation for cyclical risk-taking.Broad Market Exhaustion: Despite the stronger underlying economic backdrop, the headline stock market remains choppy and inefficient. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

<ul><li>Global Risk Deflation: The prospect of geopolitical de-escalation has acted as a powerful macro catalyst.</li><li>The sharp contraction in crude oil's risk premium has flushed fear out of the system, freeing up liquidity to rotate aggressively back into risky assets.</li><li>Stock Picker’s Market: The headline stock market indices are trading sideways without a clear direction. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Global Risk Deflation: The prospect of geopolitical de-escalation has acted as a powerful macro catalyst.The sharp contraction in crude oil's risk premium has flushed fear out of the system, freeing up liquidity to rotate aggressively back into risky assets.Stock Picker’s Market: The headline stock market indices are trading sideways without a clear direction. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

India

NLC India Limited is a Navratna Central Public Sector Enterprise engaged in lignite and coal mining, thermal power generation, and renewable energy development, including solar and wind power. The company supplies electricity to state utilities and distribution companies. It was founded in 1956 and is headquartered in Neyveli, Tamil Nadu, India.

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NLC India (NLC IN)

The Beat Ideas: NLC India-A 1.17 Lakh Crores Capex, Renewable Focus

NLCIL plans Rs. 1.17 lakh crore capex, aims for 42% PAT growth by FY28E, balancing thermal power with 10 GW renewable energy by FY30 for...

Sudarshan Bhandari

NLC India Limited - Q2FY26 Investors’ Meet: Expansion Projects Broadly on Track

Ghatampur Unit II (660 MW) completed its operational trial run recently and awaits COD shortly (earlier guidance Sep’25; delay due to monsoon).

Axis Direct

NLC India Limited - Improved Power Generation; PAT Down Due to Lower Other Income

Notably, strong improvement was seen in the PLF of TPS-II expansion after completion of modifications (PLF in Q2FY26 stood at 43% vs 20% in Q1FY26...

Axis Direct

Monthly Quant Report August 2026

Strengthening domestic economic activity and stabilizing liquidity are providing a solid, measurable foundation for cyclical risk-taking.

Axis Direct

Monthly Quant Report June 2026

The sharp contraction in crude oil's risk premium has flushed fear out of the system, freeing up liquidity to rotate aggressively back into risky...

Axis Direct

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

The Beat Ideas: NLC India-A 1.17 Lakh Crores Capex, Renewable Focus

​NLCIL plans Rs. 1.17 lakh crore capex, aims for 42% PAT growth by FY28E, balancing thermal power with 10 GW renewable energy by FY30 for...

Sudarshan Bhandari

NLC India Limited - Q2FY26 Investors’ Meet: Expansion Projects Broadly on Track

Ghatampur Unit II (660 MW) completed its operational trial run recently and awaits COD shortly (earlier guidance Sep’25; delay due to monsoon).

Axis Direct

NLC India Limited - Improved Power Generation; PAT Down Due to Lower Other Income

Notably, strong improvement was seen in the PLF of TPS-II expansion after completion of modifications (PLF in Q2FY26 stood at 43% vs 20% in Q1FY26...

Axis Direct

Monthly Quant Report August 2026

Strengthening domestic economic activity and stabilizing liquidity are providing a solid, measurable foundation for cyclical risk-taking.

Axis Direct

Monthly Quant Report June 2026

The sharp contraction in crude oil's risk premium has flushed fear out of the system, freeing up liquidity to rotate aggressively back into risky...

Axis Direct

NLCIL plans Rs. 1.17 lakh crore capex, aims for 42% PAT growth by FY28E, balancing thermal power with 10 GW renewable energy by FY30 for...