Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Investics Research will initiate coverage of the materials sector in April 2024, starting with iron ore and then gold, coal, and steel in subsequent months (in that order).</li>
<li>The areas of coverage on asset classes will encompass the underlying commodity and the associated equities. </li>
<li>Areas of differentiation would include in-depth coverage of all equities (small/mid and large cap) and actionable tactical ideas on the commodity.</li>
</ul>


Investics Research will initiate coverage of the materials sector in April 2024, starting with iron ore and then gold, coal, and steel in subsequent months (in that order).
The areas of coverage on asset classes will encompass the underlying commodity and the associated equities. 
Areas of differentiation would include in-depth coverage of all equities (small/mid and large cap) and actionable tactical ideas on the commodity.


Introduction: Initiation of Coverage in the Materials Sector

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

<ul>
<li>Strong recovery: Q2 FY26 volumes up 23% YoY; margins steady at 38%, confirming operational strength.</li>
<li>Growth visibility: Expansion, slurry pipeline, and pellet plants drive FY26–27 capacity growth.</li>
<li>Deep-Value play: Trades at 10× P/E, 5× EV/EBITDA—half peer valuations, 5% dividend yield.</li>
</ul>


Strong recovery: Q2 FY26 volumes up 23% YoY; margins steady at 38%, confirming operational strength.
Growth visibility: Expansion, slurry pipeline, and pellet plants drive FY26–27 capacity growth.
Deep-Value play: Trades at 10× P/E, 5× EV/EBITDA—half peer valuations, 5% dividend yield.


NMDC Limited — Deep-Value Core of India’s Iron Ore Chain

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Iron ore prices rose after China tightened controls on key BHP grades, though a temporary easing for Jimblebar deliveries softened near-term supply concerns.</li>
<li>Momentum signals suggest the 65%/IODEX spread selloff may be overstretched, creating scope for a near-term technical rebound as downside pressure fades.</li>
<li>The DCE-SGX spread is losing momentum and trend support, suggesting continued downside risk unless prices reclaim key moving averages near term.</li>
</ul>


Iron ore prices rose after China tightened controls on key BHP grades, though a temporary easing for Jimblebar deliveries softened near-term supply concerns.
Momentum signals suggest the 65%/IODEX spread selloff may be overstretched, creating scope for a near-term technical rebound as downside pressure fades.
The DCE-SGX spread is losing momentum and trend support, suggesting continued downside risk unless prices reclaim key moving averages near term.


Iron Ore’s Outlook Turns Constructive as Supply Signals and Mill Activity Improve

<ul>
<li>Post-Holiday liquidity provided the spark, but the decisive catalyst is rising blast furnace ramp-ups, pointing to improving steel demand fundamentals across China.</li>
<li>BHP lifted iron ore output despite CMRG restrictions, with management confident a workable solution will emerge. </li>
<li>Managed money participants turning net short in iron ore reflects growing downside conviction, as investors question whether demand can absorb still-ample supply.</li>
</ul>


Post-Holiday liquidity provided the spark, but the decisive catalyst is rising blast furnace ramp-ups, pointing to improving steel demand fundamentals across China.
BHP lifted iron ore output despite CMRG restrictions, with management confident a workable solution will emerge. 
Managed money participants turning net short in iron ore reflects growing downside conviction, as investors question whether demand can absorb still-ample supply.


Iron Ore Tug-Of-War: China Liquidity Return Vs. Managed Money Short Buildup

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>On 31-Dec-25, the Indian government notified a three year safeguard duty on flat steel imports, starting at 12% in Year 1 to counter predatory pricing from China and Vietnam.</li>
<li>This structural shift addresses a long-standing grievance of domestic mills, effectively creating a 10% price premium over imports and reversing the margin erosion caused by excess global capacity.</li>
<li>With domestic HRC prices expected to climb 10%, the duty provides a significant EBITDA kicker for Indian Steel Companies, signaling a multi-year recovery phase for the sector.</li>
</ul>


On 31-Dec-25, the Indian government notified a three year safeguard duty on flat steel imports, starting at 12% in Year 1 to counter predatory pricing from China and Vietnam.
This structural shift addresses a long-standing grievance of domestic mills, effectively creating a 10% price premium over imports and reversing the margin erosion caused by excess global capacity.
With domestic HRC prices expected to climb 10%, the duty provides a significant EBITDA kicker for Indian Steel Companies, signaling a multi-year recovery phase for the sector.


Indian Steel: Safeguard Duty Unleashed— A 12% Firewall for the Domestic Bull Run

India

NMDC Limited is India's largest iron ore producer and exporter, engaged in the exploration and production of various minerals including iron ore, copper, rock phosphate, limestone, magnesite, and diamonds. The company operates highly mechanized mines primarily in Chhattisgarh and Karnataka, and also runs India's only mechanized diamond mine in Panna, Madhya Pradesh. Headquartered in Hyderabad, Telangana, NMDC was founded in 1958.

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NMDC (NMDC IN)

Introduction: Initiation of Coverage in the Materials Sector

We provide readers with an introduction to our initiation on commodities. We also provide a rationale as to how our coverage will be comprehensive...

Sameer Taneja

NMDC Limited — Deep-Value Core of India’s Iron Ore Chain

Strong operational performance and growth prospects drive a deep-value investment opportunity with steady margins and significant capacity...

Rahul Jain

Iron Ore’s Outlook Turns Constructive as Supply Signals and Mill Activity Improve

Port inventories edge higher, while blast furnace restarts and BHP’s grade restrictions could gradually tighten market balance in coming weeks.

Mint Finance

Iron Ore Tug-Of-War: China Liquidity Return Vs. Managed Money Short Buildup

Iron ore futures slipped by 1.4% last week, then rebounded after blast furnaces ramp up and post-holiday liquidity push. Still, the narrative is...

Mint Finance

Indian Steel: Safeguard Duty Unleashed— A 12% Firewall for the Domestic Bull Run

Indian government imposes 3-year safeguard duty on flat steel imports to counter predatory pricing, creating price premium for domestic mills and...

Nimish Maheshwari

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Introduction: Initiation of Coverage in the Materials Sector

We provide readers with an introduction to our initiation on commodities. We also provide a rationale as to how our coverage will be comprehensive...

Sameer Taneja

NMDC Limited — Deep-Value Core of India’s Iron Ore Chain

​Strong operational performance and growth prospects drive a deep-value investment opportunity with steady margins and significant capacity...

Rahul Jain

Iron Ore’s Outlook Turns Constructive as Supply Signals and Mill Activity Improve

Port inventories edge higher, while blast furnace restarts and BHP’s grade restrictions could gradually tighten market balance in coming weeks.

Mint Finance

Iron Ore Tug-Of-War: China Liquidity Return Vs. Managed Money Short Buildup

Iron ore futures slipped by 1.4% last week, then rebounded after blast furnaces ramp up and post-holiday liquidity push. Still, the narrative is...

Mint Finance

Indian Steel: Safeguard Duty Unleashed— A 12% Firewall for the Domestic Bull Run

​Indian government imposes 3-year safeguard duty on flat steel imports to counter predatory pricing, creating price premium for domestic mills and...

Nimish Maheshwari

Strong operational performance and growth prospects drive a deep-value investment opportunity with steady margins and significant capacity...

Indian government imposes 3-year safeguard duty on flat steel imports to counter predatory pricing, creating price premium for domestic mills and...