IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

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Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Since the US$1.1 billion secondary placement announcement, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aisin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11809:1" rel="noopener">Aisin (7259 JP)</a>’s shares are up 2.5% from the undisturbed price of JPY5,243 per share (27 June).</li>
<li>Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Aisin’s shares have deviated from the pattern of previous large placements.</li>
<li>The offering will likely be priced on 8 July. Investors who have participated in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.</li>
</ul>


Since the US$1.1 billion secondary placement announcement, Aisin (7259 JP)’s shares are up 2.5% from the undisturbed price of JPY5,243 per share (27 June).
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Aisin’s shares have deviated from the pattern of previous large placements.
The offering will likely be priced on 8 July. Investors who have participated in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/honda-motor-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:154:1" rel="noopener">Honda Motor (7267 JP)</a> has announced a secondary offering of up to 298.9 million shares (including overallotment). At the close, the offer, including overallotment, is worth JPY535 billion (US$3.3 million).</li>
<li>The offering is another sign that the unwinding of cross-shareholdings is catching pace as part of Japan's corporate governance reforms.</li>
<li>Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 17 and 22 July (likely 17 July).</li>
</ul>



Honda Motor (7267 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 298.9 million shares (including overallotment). At the close, the offer, including overallotment, is worth JPY535 billion (US$3.3 million).
The offering is another sign that the unwinding of cross-shareholdings is catching pace as part of Japan's corporate governance reforms.
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 17 and 22 July (likely 17 July).


Honda (7267 JP): A US$3.3 Billion Secondary Offering

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/aisin-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11809:1" rel="noopener">Aisin (7259 JP)</a> has announced a secondary offering of up to 38.9 million shares (including overallotment) and a buyback worth a maximum of JPY100 billion or 17 million shares.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso Corp (6902 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>, and Toyota Motor (7203 JP) are the selling shareholders. The offering aims to reconfigure the company's shareholder mix and reduce cross-shareholdings.</li>
<li>Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 8 and 10 July (likely 8 July).</li>
</ul>



Aisin (7259 JP) has announced a secondary offering of up to 38.9 million shares (including overallotment) and a buyback worth a maximum of JPY100 billion or 17 million shares.

Denso Corp (6902 JP), Toyota Industries (6201 JP), and Toyota Motor (7203 JP) are the selling shareholders. The offering aims to reconfigure the company's shareholder mix and reduce cross-shareholdings.
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 8 and 10 July (likely 8 July).


Aisin (7259 JP): A US$1.1 Billion Secondary Offering

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The Sep 2024 Nikkei 225 Review base date is six weeks away. One can no extrapolate results quite accurately. It still gives us one ADD, one DELETE, and capping fun.</li>
<li>Recently, Yanai-san sold more Fast Retailing (9983 JP). More active holders own more stock (which may mean less interest to buy later), and only 1% to go to avoid capping.</li>
<li>There should be one DELETE, one ADD. There is a low-probability Dark Horse ADD but I expect Kokusai Electric (6525) to be added in March 2025. </li>
</ul>


The Sep 2024 Nikkei 225 Review base date is six weeks away. One can no extrapolate results quite accurately. It still gives us one ADD, one DELETE, and capping fun.
Recently, Yanai-san sold more Fast Retailing (9983 JP). More active holders own more stock (which may mean less interest to buy later), and only 1% to go to avoid capping.
There should be one DELETE, one ADD. There is a low-probability Dark Horse ADD but I expect Kokusai Electric (6525) to be added in March 2025. 


Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Still 1 ADD, 1 DELETE, 1 Dark Horse, But #2-Ranked ADD Is Close

<ul>
<li>Since the US$535 million secondary placement announcement, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/modec-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2840:1" rel="noopener">Modec Inc (6269 JP)</a>’s shares are down 15% from the undisturbed price of JPY3,320 per share (14 May).</li>
<li>Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Modec’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements.</li>
<li>The offering will likely be priced on 22 May. Investors who have participated in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.</li>
</ul>


Since the US$535 million secondary placement announcement, Modec Inc (6269 JP)’s shares are down 15% from the undisturbed price of JPY3,320 per share (14 May).
Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive to understand the potential trading pattern. So far, Modec’s shares have followed the pattern of previous large placements.
The offering will likely be priced on 22 May. Investors who have participated in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.


Japan

Nomura Research Institute, Ltd. provides information technology, research, consulting, and analyzing for business strategy decision-making.  The Company also provides application software for system operation services.

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Nomura Research Institute (4307 JP)

Aisin (7259 JP): The Current Playbook

The offering will likely be priced on 8 July. Investors who have participated in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.

Arun George

Honda (7267 JP): A US$3.3 Billion Secondary Offering

Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 17 and...

Arun George

Aisin (7259 JP): A US$1.1 Billion Secondary Offering

Looking at recent large Japanese placements is instructive for understanding the potential offer price. The pricing date will fall between 8 and 10...

Arun George

Sep24 Nikkei 225 Rebal - Still 1 ADD, 1 DELETE, 1 Dark Horse, But #2-Ranked ADD Is Close

The Nikkei 225 rebal for September is still likely to be a small affair. One ADD. One DELETE. The big capping trade for Fast Retailing is 1% away...

Travis Lundy

MODEC (6296 JP): The Current Playbook

The offering will likely be priced on 22 May. Investors who have participated in previous large Japanese placements tend to secure positive returns.

Arun George

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