Writing about Companies with an Unfair Advantage, Unfair Advantage

Unfair Advantage

Writing about Companies with an Unfair Advantage

I write about companies that have an unfair advantage. I might invest in them as well.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>When I wrote my piece on Novo Nordisk yesterday, I was not expecting their Annual Report to be released the same day along with a 2026 guidance that sent the shares sharply down 14% in a single day.</li><li>There were two things that stood out to me on their annual report.</li><li>Novo Nordisk now guides a sales decline in 2026 of -5% to -13% and an operating profit decline of -5% to -13% at constant exchange rates. Strengthening of dollar could add additional headwinds here.</li></ul>

When I wrote my piece on Novo Nordisk yesterday, I was not expecting their Annual Report to be released the same day along with a 2026 guidance that sent the shares sharply down 14% in a single day.There were two things that stood out to me on their annual report.Novo Nordisk now guides a sales decline in 2026 of -5% to -13% and an operating profit decline of -5% to -13% at constant exchange rates. Strengthening of dollar could add additional headwinds here.

Re-Recontextualising Novo Nordisk - Not so Cheap Anymore

<ul><li>Since my previous write up on Novo Nordisk, the business has had a few good news and the stock is up 18%.</li><li>Yet it remains ~3x cheaper than it’s competitor Eli Lilly.</li><li>There are 2 developments that puts Novo at an advantaged position compared to Eli Lill</li></ul>

Since my previous write up on Novo Nordisk, the business has had a few good news and the stock is up 18%.Yet it remains ~3x cheaper than it’s competitor Eli Lilly.There are 2 developments that puts Novo at an advantaged position compared to Eli Lill

Recontextualizing Novo Nordisk in the Current Obesity Race

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

<ul><li>Novo Nordisk stock has surged recently, driven by a combination of regulatory wins, strong early demand for new products, and growing investor confidence in its future obesity franchise.</li><li>The most notable catalyst was the U.K.’s Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) approving a new, higher 7.2 mg weekly dose of semaglutide (Wegovy) for adults with obesity—a major increase from the prior 2.4 mg cap.</li><li>This follows on the heels of a strong U.S. launch for the oral version of Wegovy, with retail prescriptions totaling 3,071 in just its first week.</li></ul>

Novo Nordisk stock has surged recently, driven by a combination of regulatory wins, strong early demand for new products, and growing investor confidence in its future obesity franchise.The most notable catalyst was the U.K.’s Medicines and Healthcare Products Regulatory Agency (MHRA) approving a new, higher 7.2 mg weekly dose of semaglutide (Wegovy) for adults with obesity—a major increase from the prior 2.4 mg cap.This follows on the heels of a strong U.S. launch for the oral version of Wegovy, with retail prescriptions totaling 3,071 in just its first week.

Novo Nordisk’s New Weapon In Obesity War: Higher Doses & No Needles!

Healthcare Equity Analyst - Emerging & Dev Markets, daaimon

Avien Pillay

Healthcare Equity Analyst - Emerging & Dev Markets

daaimon

daaimon is an independent research company focusing on healthcare and consumer sectors across developed and emerging markets. We produce insightful research which challenges conventional thinking. In particular, we look for new ideas by testing consensus forecasts and markets expectations.

<ul>
<li>We believe the FDA approval of the Wegovy pill improves affordability and convenience and significantly increases the size of the potential market.</li>
<li>After a massive spending drive from 2021 to 2024, management embarked on right-sizing the company with the announcement of 9000 retrenchments and $1.25 bn cost savings.</li>
<li>Competition is expected to increase over the next few years. At a FPE of less than 15 times and an EV/EBITDA of 10.5, we believe the risks are adequately discounted.</li>
</ul>


We believe the FDA approval of the Wegovy pill improves affordability and convenience and significantly increases the size of the potential market.
After a massive spending drive from 2021 to 2024, management embarked on right-sizing the company with the announcement of 9000 retrenchments and $1.25 bn cost savings.
Competition is expected to increase over the next few years. At a FPE of less than 15 times and an EV/EBITDA of 10.5, we believe the risks are adequately discounted.


Novo Nordisk (NVO US) – Time for an Upgrade!

<ul><li>Novo Nordisk has reached a defining moment in the evolution of the obesity drug market with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s approval of a once-daily oral version of Wegovy.</li><li>Announced on December 23, 2025, the decision marks the first FDA-approved oral GLP-1 therapy specifically indicated for chronic weight management, extending Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide franchise beyond injections.</li><li>The approval arrives at a time when growth in injectable Wegovy has begun to moderate in the U.S., payer scrutiny remains elevated, and competition from :contentReference[oaicite:0]{index=0} is intensifying ahead of its own oral GLP-1 candidate, orforglipron.</li></ul>

Novo Nordisk has reached a defining moment in the evolution of the obesity drug market with the U.S. Food and Drug Administration’s approval of a once-daily oral version of Wegovy.Announced on December 23, 2025, the decision marks the first FDA-approved oral GLP-1 therapy specifically indicated for chronic weight management, extending Novo Nordisk’s semaglutide franchise beyond injections.The approval arrives at a time when growth in injectable Wegovy has begun to moderate in the U.S., payer scrutiny remains elevated, and competition from :contentReference[oaicite:0]{index=0} is intensifying ahead of its own oral GLP-1 candidate, orforglipron.

Novo Nordisk’s Wegovy Pill Is Approved—Is This the End for Injections?

Denmark

Novo Nordisk A/S develops, produces, and markets pharmaceutical products. The Company focuses on diabetes care and offers insulin delivery systems and other diabetes products. Novo Nordisk also works in areas such as haemostatis management, growth disorders, and hormone replacement therapy. The Company offers educational and training materials. Novo Nordisk markets worldwide.

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Novo Nordisk (NVO US)

Re-Recontextualising Novo Nordisk - Not so Cheap Anymore

When I wrote my piece on Novo Nordisk yesterday, I was not expecting their Annual Report to be released the same day along with a 2026 guidance...

Unfair Advantage

Recontextualizing Novo Nordisk in the Current Obesity Race

Since my previous write up on Novo Nordisk, the business has had a few good news and the stock is up 18%. Yet it remains ~3x cheaper than it’s...

Unfair Advantage

Novo Nordisk’s New Weapon In Obesity War: Higher Doses & No Needles!

Novo Nordisk stock has surged recently, driven by a combination of regulatory wins, strong early demand for new products, and growing investor...

Baptista Research