Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We had been near-term bullish on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) since our 4/22/25 Compass, however, we are officially downgrading our near-term outlook to neutral</li>
<li>The SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) are breaking below their 50-day MAs and are also violating their multi-month uptrends, signaling a consolidation period is here</li>
<li>Still, our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish (as of 5/14/25 report), and we'll maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain constructive and the SPX is above 6200</li>
</ul>


We had been near-term bullish on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) since our 4/22/25 Compass, however, we are officially downgrading our near-term outlook to neutral
The SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) are breaking below their 50-day MAs and are also violating their multi-month uptrends, signaling a consolidation period is here
Still, our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish (as of 5/14/25 report), and we'll maintain our bullish intermediate-term view as long as market dynamics remain constructive and the SPX is above 6200


Coasting as We Stalk for Buying Opportunity; Downgrading Discretionary to Underweight

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic, Beat the Street

Sudarshan Bhandari

India Equity Analyst - Fundamental & Thematic

Beat the Street

Beat The Street was founded by Nimish Maheshwari and Sudarshan Bhandari, both of whom are Chartered Accountants by Profession, known for their expert analysis in the fields of Business, Sectoral analysis, and Corporate governance.

With a strong social media presence of 45,000+ Subscribers across various platforms, they are considered trusted voices in the industry. Their insights and analysis have been featured in some of India’s most prominent publications, including the Economic Times, Dalal Street Investment Journal, The Morning Context, and The Ken.

Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Equity Derivatives

<ul>
<li>Novo committed to scale oral Wegovy manufacturing tenfold by 2030, opening potential peptide overflow work for integrated Indian CDMOs such as Divi’s.</li>
<li>Oral semaglutide is far more peptide-intensive per patient than injectable Wegovy, so capacity scale-up raises demand for fragments, building blocks and cost-efficient CDMO supply.</li>
<li>Treat oral Wegovy as optionality only; Lilly tirzepatide remains Divi’s core peptide opportunity, and Divi’s stays our top India Pharma pick.</li>
</ul>


Novo committed to scale oral Wegovy manufacturing tenfold by 2030, opening potential peptide overflow work for integrated Indian CDMOs such as Divi’s.
Oral semaglutide is far more peptide-intensive per patient than injectable Wegovy, so capacity scale-up raises demand for fragments, building blocks and cost-efficient CDMO supply.
Treat oral Wegovy as optionality only; Lilly tirzepatide remains Divi’s core peptide opportunity, and Divi’s stays our top India Pharma pick.


Divi’s Labs: Oral Wegovy Scale-Up, New Optionality

Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Once overlooked, Ozempic (semaglutide) has become a multi-billion-dollar drug, transforming the landscape of weight loss and chronic disease management due to its remarkable efficacy. </li>
<li>With new FDA-approved indications for cardiovascular risk, chronic kidney disease, and obesity, Ozempic is driving massive market growth, set to dominate the GLP-1 receptor agonist sector. 
</li>
<li>While patent protection and high demand fuel growth, the impending expiration in key markets like India and competition from emerging drugs will impact pricing and market dynamics.</li>
</ul>


Once overlooked, Ozempic (semaglutide) has become a multi-billion-dollar drug, transforming the landscape of weight loss and chronic disease management due to its remarkable efficacy. 
With new FDA-approved indications for cardiovascular risk, chronic kidney disease, and obesity, Ozempic is driving massive market growth, set to dominate the GLP-1 receptor agonist sector. 

While patent protection and high demand fuel growth, the impending expiration in key markets like India and competition from emerging drugs will impact pricing and market dynamics.


Thematic Report: Ozempic- Weight Loss Drug Revolution

Research from Water Tower Research, Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research

Research from Water Tower Research

Water Tower Research is a leading equity research firm that provides research on micro, small and mid cap companies.

Water Tower Research was founded by Wall Street veterans after witnessing a fundamental shift in the investment research industry with the result being a declining knowledge base among investors, a lack of awareness and a shrinking pool of fundamental research being conducted on companies across the small-cap and micro-cap spectrum. The same issues are now increasingly occurring in the mid-cap space. This sea change within the investment community is impacting not only the companies themselves but also current shareholders and potential investors. With significantly less active sell-side sponsorship by Wall Street, a substantial information gap has developed between companies and various constituents in the financial community. The net result is fewer channels for insight and information to flow between companies and investors.

Equity Research Firm

<ul><li>Pharma benefited from some defensive sector rotation, led by the big obesity duo, LLY and NVO, ahead of this week’s major diabetes conference (ADA 2025).</li><li>Vaccine concerns reached new heights as RFK Jr. suddenly (but not surprising) dismantled the CDC’s ACIP (vaccine expert panel) and replaced it with vaccine skeptics to reshape vaccine policy and guidance.</li><li>Most- Favored-Nation (MFN) appeared to be in a stand-off as the 30- day deadline (June 11) for drug price targets passed without any action. </li></ul>

Pharma benefited from some defensive sector rotation, led by the big obesity duo, LLY and NVO, ahead of this week’s major diabetes conference (ADA 2025).Vaccine concerns reached new heights as RFK Jr. suddenly (but not surprising) dismantled the CDC’s ACIP (vaccine expert panel) and replaced it with vaccine skeptics to reshape vaccine policy and guidance.Most- Favored-Nation (MFN) appeared to be in a stand-off as the 30- day deadline (June 11) for drug price targets passed without any action. 

Biopharma Week in Review - Vaccine Advisory Board Overhaul Sudden but Not Surprising

<ul><li>Large pharma’s bounce from the mostly ineffective Most- Favored-Nation (MFN) executive order was short-lived, as new CMS draft guidance for Medicare price negotiations threatened certain drug combos.</li><li>President Trump’s MFN executive order lacked a clear plan to lower drug prices, with any immediate moves likely facing legal challenges.</li><li>Listen to the WTR Biotech Flashcast for our MFN take.</li></ul>

Large pharma’s bounce from the mostly ineffective Most- Favored-Nation (MFN) executive order was short-lived, as new CMS draft guidance for Medicare price negotiations threatened certain drug combos.President Trump’s MFN executive order lacked a clear plan to lower drug prices, with any immediate moves likely facing legal challenges.Listen to the WTR Biotech Flashcast for our MFN take.

Biopharma Week in Review MFN Fears Overdone but Medicare Negotiation Changes Reapplied Pressure

Denmark

Novo Nordisk A/S develops, produces, and markets pharmaceutical products. The Company focuses on diabetes care and offers insulin delivery systems and other diabetes products. Novo Nordisk also works in areas such as haemostatis management, growth disorders, and hormone replacement therapy. The Company offers educational and training materials. Novo Nordisk markets worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Novo Nordisk (NVO US)

Coasting as We Stalk for Buying Opportunity; Downgrading Discretionary to Underweight

Coasting as We Stalk for Buying Opportunity; Downgrading Near-Term Outlook to Neutral, But Still Bullish Intermediate-Term $SPX $QQQ; Downgrading...

Vermilion Research

Divi’s Labs: Oral Wegovy Scale-Up, New Optionality

On Capital Market day, when Novo announced 10x oral Wegovy scale-up. This is peptide CDMO optionality for Divis Lab, the core GLP-1 bet.

Sudarshan Bhandari

Thematic Report: Ozempic- Weight Loss Drug Revolution

Ozempic's remarkable efficacy in weight loss and chronic disease management has transformed it into a multi-billion-dollar drug, set to dominate...

Nimish Maheshwari

Biopharma Week in Review - Vaccine Advisory Board Overhaul Sudden but Not Surprising

Pharma benefited from some defensive sector rotation, led by the big obesity duo, LLY and NVO, ahead of this week’s major diabetes conference (ADA...

Water Tower Research

Biopharma Week in Review MFN Fears Overdone but Medicare Negotiation Changes Reapplied Pressure

President Trump’s MFN executive order lacked a clear plan to lower drug prices, with any immediate moves likely facing legal challenges.

Water Tower Research

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Coasting as We Stalk for Buying Opportunity; Downgrading Discretionary to Underweight

Coasting as We Stalk for Buying Opportunity; Downgrading Near-Term Outlook to Neutral, But Still Bullish Intermediate-Term $SPX $QQQ; Downgrading...

Vermilion Research

Divi’s Labs: Oral Wegovy Scale-Up, New Optionality

On Capital Market day, when Novo announced 10x oral Wegovy scale-up. This is peptide CDMO optionality for Divis Lab, the core GLP-1 bet.

Sudarshan Bhandari

Thematic Report: Ozempic- Weight Loss Drug Revolution

​Ozempic's remarkable efficacy in weight loss and chronic disease management has transformed it into a multi-billion-dollar drug, set to dominate...

Nimish Maheshwari

Biopharma Week in Review - Vaccine Advisory Board Overhaul Sudden but Not Surprising

Pharma benefited from some defensive sector rotation, led by the big obesity duo, LLY and NVO, ahead of this week’s major diabetes conference (ADA...

Water Tower Research

Biopharma Week in Review MFN Fears Overdone but Medicare Negotiation Changes Reapplied Pressure

President Trump’s MFN executive order lacked a clear plan to lower drug prices, with any immediate moves likely facing legal challenges.

Water Tower Research

Ozempic's remarkable efficacy in weight loss and chronic disease management has transformed it into a multi-billion-dollar drug, set to dominate...