Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Despite $IWM already hitting our price target at 200-day MA/YTD downtrend, and the $SPX getting to within 1% of our target at 200-day MA, we see this 1.5-month rally continuing.</li>
<li>We expect further upside as long as the 1.5-month uptrend channels remain intact on the SPX and IWM, and we believe that breakouts above their 200-day MAs could be coming</li>
<li>Breakouts above their 200-day MAs that would likely signal the end to this bear market.</li>
</ul>


Despite $IWM already hitting our price target at 200-day MA/YTD downtrend, and the $SPX getting to within 1% of our target at 200-day MA, we see this 1.5-month rally continuing.
We expect further upside as long as the 1.5-month uptrend channels remain intact on the SPX and IWM, and we believe that breakouts above their 200-day MAs could be coming
Breakouts above their 200-day MAs that would likely signal the end to this bear market.


Small- And Mid-Cap Indexes Poised to Break Out?; Further Upside Expected; Buys Within Cyclicals

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul><li>Nucor managed to deliver an all-around beat as a result of strong performance in raw material operations, tabular, buildings, deck, joist, structural, sheet, plate, and bar.</li><li>The flexible and sustainable business model of Nucor proves its ability to grow and create values for its shareholders.</li><li>Nucor Corporation has recently announced that it has joined an agreement to acquire Summit Utility Structures LLC and Sovereign Steel Manufacturing LLC.</li></ul>

Nucor managed to deliver an all-around beat as a result of strong performance in raw material operations, tabular, buildings, deck, joist, structural, sheet, plate, and bar.The flexible and sustainable business model of Nucor proves its ability to grow and create values for its shareholders.Nucor Corporation has recently announced that it has joined an agreement to acquire Summit Utility Structures LLC and Sovereign Steel Manufacturing LLC.

Nucor Corp: Recent Acquisitions & Other Drivers

Fundamental Short Selling Research

Eric Fernandez, CFA

TwoRiversAnalytics

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>This model seeks companies that are potentially “overearning”, defined as companies with unusually high margins relative to their own history or relative to the industry. </li>
<li>The reasons for the margin increases are sometimes unsustainable or fraudulent. The  critical judgement involves to what extent unsustainable margins are embedded in a company’s forecasts and/or the stock’s valuation. </li>
<li>These shorts tend to have moderate to higher betas, higher valuations due to recent strong results and good short responses to subsequently disappointing earnings. </li>
</ul>


This model seeks companies that are potentially “overearning”, defined as companies with unusually high margins relative to their own history or relative to the industry. 
The reasons for the margin increases are sometimes unsustainable or fraudulent. The  critical judgement involves to what extent unsustainable margins are embedded in a company’s forecasts and/or the stock’s valuation. 
These shorts tend to have moderate to higher betas, higher valuations due to recent strong results and good short responses to subsequently disappointing earnings. 


Overearning Short Candidates: Photronics, LSB Industries, Otter Tail, Kulicke & Soffa

Credit

<ul><li>Nucor Corp is a renowned steel company and one of metals and mining giants across the globe.</li><li>The company started off with 2022 on a positive note despite the war-related headwinds impacting the supply chain.</li><li>The Russian invasion of Ukraine significantly impacted commodity markets and the supply chains of almost every industry resulting in pronounced volatility.</li></ul>

Nucor Corp is a renowned steel company and one of metals and mining giants across the globe.The company started off with 2022 on a positive note despite the war-related headwinds impacting the supply chain.The Russian invasion of Ukraine significantly impacted commodity markets and the supply chains of almost every industry resulting in pronounced volatility.

Nucor Corporation: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

<ul><li>This is our first report on steelmaker, Nucor Corp.</li><li>The company started off with 2022 on a positive note despite the war-related headwinds impacting the supply chain.</li><li>The Russian invasion of Ukraine significantly impacted commodity markets and the supply chains of almost every industry resulting in pronounced volatility.</li></ul>

This is our first report on steelmaker, Nucor Corp.The company started off with 2022 on a positive note despite the war-related headwinds impacting the supply chain.The Russian invasion of Ukraine significantly impacted commodity markets and the supply chains of almost every industry resulting in pronounced volatility.

Nucor Corporation: Initiation of Coverage – Acquisition-Led Growth & Steel Macro

United States

Nucor Corporation manufactures steel products.  The Company's products include carbon and alloy steel, steel joists, steel deck, cold finished steel, steel grinding balls, steel bearing products, and metal buildingsystems. Nucor also brokers ferrous and nonferrous metals, pig iron and HBI/DRI; supplies ferro-alloys; and processes ferrous and nonferrous scrap.

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Nucor Corp (NUE US)

Small- And Mid-Cap Indexes Poised to Break Out?; Further Upside Expected; Buys Within Cyclicals

Despite $IWM already hitting our price target at its 200-day MA/YTD downtrend, & the $SPX getting to within 1% of our target at its 200-day MA, we...

Vermilion Research

Nucor Corp: Recent Acquisitions & Other Drivers

Nucor managed to deliver an all-around beat as a result of strong performance in raw material operations, tabular, buildings, deck, joist,...

Baptista Research

Overearning Short Candidates: Photronics, LSB Industries, Otter Tail, Kulicke & Soffa

Margin over-earners are fertile hunting ground for shorts if the reasons for the margin increase are unsustainable or fraudulent. This week:...

Eric Fernandez, CFA

Nucor Corporation: Detailed Credit Analysis & Financial Strength Evaluation Report

Nucor Corp is a renowned steel company and one of metals and mining giants across the globe. The company started off with 2022 on a positive note...

Baptista Research

Nucor Corporation: Initiation of Coverage – Acquisition-Led Growth & Steel Macro

This is our first report on steelmaker, Nucor Corp. The company started off with 2022 on a positive note despite the war-related headwinds...

Baptista Research

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