Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>China's share of US imports will halve in 2025 from Mar'18 peak of 21.8%, and ASEAN's share (led by Vietnam) will rise to 14%. India, Korea, Taiwan's shares gain too. </li>
<li>There was a big surge in Asian exports to the US in Jun-Jul'25 to beat tariffs, but tariffs will alter patterns in 4Q2025, cutting export growth and reducing US disinflation. </li>
<li>The rebound in US steel production (+4.6%YoY in Jun-Jul'25) and ISM manufacturing new orders suggests select American industries (metals, automobiles, electronics) will gain but downstream users will suffer steadily more. </li>
</ul>


China's share of US imports will halve in 2025 from Mar'18 peak of 21.8%, and ASEAN's share (led by Vietnam) will rise to 14%. India, Korea, Taiwan's shares gain too. 
There was a big surge in Asian exports to the US in Jun-Jul'25 to beat tariffs, but tariffs will alter patterns in 4Q2025, cutting export growth and reducing US disinflation. 
The rebound in US steel production (+4.6%YoY in Jun-Jul'25) and ISM manufacturing new orders suggests select American industries (metals, automobiles, electronics) will gain but downstream users will suffer steadily more. 


US: You Ain't Seen Nothin' yet on the Impact of the Trump Tariffs

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).</li>
<li>Our near-term bullish outlook will remain in place long as the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) are above their 20-day MAs.</li>
<li>Short-Term SPX support is at 6028-6059 and the 20-day MA, with additional supports at 5804-5854 and 5700-5785. Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&amp;P Mid Caps (IJH) also breaking above key resistances</li>
</ul>


We remain near-term bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and our intermediate-term outlook remains bullish as well (as of our 5/14/25 Compass).
Our near-term bullish outlook will remain in place long as the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM) are above their 20-day MAs.
Short-Term SPX support is at 6028-6059 and the 20-day MA, with additional supports at 5804-5854 and 5700-5785. Russell 2000 (IWM) and S&amp;P Mid Caps (IJH) also breaking above key resistances


Blue Sky Territory; Bullish Outlook Intact; Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 Breaking to All-Time Highs

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>The U.S. has doubled tariffs on imported steel and aluminum to 50%, citing national security and domestic industry protection.</li>
<li>The move is expected to raise domestic prices, reduce imports, and increase costs for metal-intensive industries.</li>
<li>Winners include U.S.-based producers like Nucor, United States Steel, Cleveland Cliffs and Century Aluminum; losers are foreign exporters like Aloca, RioTinto, Nippon Steel, Ford, GM etc.</li>
</ul>


The U.S. has doubled tariffs on imported steel and aluminum to 50%, citing national security and domestic industry protection.
The move is expected to raise domestic prices, reduce imports, and increase costs for metal-intensive industries.
Winners include U.S.-based producers like Nucor, United States Steel, Cleveland Cliffs and Century Aluminum; losers are foreign exporters like Aloca, RioTinto, Nippon Steel, Ford, GM etc.


Tariff Surge 2025: Winners, Losers, and the Real Impact on U.S. Steel and Aluminium

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Nucor Corporation recently disclosed its financial outcomes for the second quarter of 2024, detailing both successes and challenges.</li><li>The company reported earnings of $2.68 per diluted share for the quarter, totaling $6.14 for the half-year.</li><li>This marked a decline compared to the first quarter earnings primarily due to a decrease in average selling prices within its steel mills and steel products segments.</li></ul>

Nucor Corporation recently disclosed its financial outcomes for the second quarter of 2024, detailing both successes and challenges.The company reported earnings of $2.68 per diluted share for the quarter, totaling $6.14 for the half-year.This marked a decline compared to the first quarter earnings primarily due to a decrease in average selling prices within its steel mills and steel products segments.

Nucor Corporation: What Is The Impact Of The Current Political & Trade Environments? - Major Drivers

External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club (VIC)

External reports (aggregated public sources)

Value Investors Club

<ul><li>Nucor, a steel manufacturer, could benefit from an all-GOP government through increased infrastructure spending</li><li>Nucor presents a low-risk, high-reward trade opportunity in the current political context</li><li>The tragic shooting at a Trump rally in Pennsylvania has raised GOP victory odds, making Nucor an attractive investment option for those looking to profit from current events.</li></ul><p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.</em></p>

Nucor, a steel manufacturer, could benefit from an all-GOP government through increased infrastructure spendingNucor presents a low-risk, high-reward trade opportunity in the current political contextThe tragic shooting at a Trump rally in Pennsylvania has raised GOP victory odds, making Nucor an attractive investment option for those looking to profit from current events.This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

United States

Nucor Corporation manufactures steel products.  The Company's products include carbon and alloy steel, steel joists, steel deck, cold finished steel, steel grinding balls, steel bearing products, and metal buildingsystems. Nucor also brokers ferrous and nonferrous metals, pig iron and HBI/DRI; supplies ferro-alloys; and processes ferrous and nonferrous scrap.

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Nucor Corp (NUE US)

US: You Ain't Seen Nothin' yet on the Impact of the Trump Tariffs

China share of US imports to halve in 2025 vs 7 years ago, with ASEAN (mainly Vietnam) gaining. Tariff impact only begins now: exports to slow...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Blue Sky Territory; Bullish Outlook Intact; Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 Breaking to All-Time Highs

Blue Sky Territory; Bullish Outlook Intact; $QQQ and $SPX Breaking to All-Time Highs; Russell 2000 $IWM and Mid Caps $IJH also breaking above...

Vermilion Research

Tariff Surge 2025: Winners, Losers, and the Real Impact on U.S. Steel and Aluminium

The U.S. Midwest aluminum premium spiked by 54% on Monday and 164% YTD to $0.58/lb on June 2, driven by new tariffs and typical early-month...

Rahul Jain

Nucor Corporation: What Is The Impact Of The Current Political & Trade Environments? - Major Drivers

Nucor Corporation recently disclosed its financial outcomes for the second quarter of 2024, detailing both successes and challenges. The company...

Baptista Research

Nucor Corp (NUE) - Sunday, Jul 14, 2024

The tragic shooting at a Trump rally in Pennsylvania has raised GOP victory odds, making Nucor an attractive investment option for those looking to...

Value Investors Club (VIC)

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52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

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US: You Ain't Seen Nothin' yet on the Impact of the Trump Tariffs

​China share of US imports to halve in 2025 vs 7 years ago, with ASEAN (mainly Vietnam) gaining. Tariff impact only begins now: exports to slow...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Blue Sky Territory; Bullish Outlook Intact; Nasdaq 100 and S&P 500 Breaking to All-Time Highs

Blue Sky Territory; Bullish Outlook Intact; $QQQ and $SPX Breaking to All-Time Highs; Russell 2000 $IWM and Mid Caps $IJH also breaking above...

Vermilion Research

Tariff Surge 2025: Winners, Losers, and the Real Impact on U.S. Steel and Aluminium

The U.S. Midwest aluminum premium spiked by 54% on Monday and 164% YTD to $0.58/lb on June 2, driven by new tariffs and typical early-month...

Rahul Jain

Nucor Corporation: What Is The Impact Of The Current Political & Trade Environments? - Major Drivers

Nucor Corporation recently disclosed its financial outcomes for the second quarter of 2024, detailing both successes and challenges. The company...

Baptista Research

Nucor Corp (NUE) - Sunday, Jul 14, 2024

The tragic shooting at a Trump rally in Pennsylvania has raised GOP victory odds, making Nucor an attractive investment option for those looking to...

Value Investors Club (VIC)

China share of US imports to halve in 2025 vs 7 years ago, with ASEAN (mainly Vietnam) gaining. Tariff impact only begins now: exports to slow...