Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Nearing the end of the review period, we see 5 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 2 new listings added to LargeCap and 7 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap.</li>
<li>We see 7 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap, 3 new listings added to MidCap, and 12 stocks moving from MidCap to SmallCap.</li>
<li>Stock migrating upward have, on average, outperformed stocks that are downward migrations. Stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap have performed the best.</li>
</ul>


Nearing the end of the review period, we see 5 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 2 new listings added to LargeCap and 7 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap.
We see 7 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap, 3 new listings added to MidCap, and 12 stocks moving from MidCap to SmallCap.
Stock migrating upward have, on average, outperformed stocks that are downward migrations. Stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap have performed the best.


India: AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nirmal Bang

Nirmal Bang

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

A Relationship Beyond Broking

Nirmal Bang, one of the leading stock broking companies in India, caters to retail and institutional clients by offering them a range of financial products and services, including equities, derivatives, commodities, currency derivatives, mutual funds, IPOs, insurance, depository services and PMS.

Nirmal Bang is drawn from a diversity of professional backgrounds, and blend of experience, skill and dedication is shared with its clients. Nirmal Bang emphasizes adequate, thorough research local and world-wide developments, balancing these with the astute discovery of intrinsic values, synergies and growth. The aim is simply to help the investors to maximize their returns.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Summary of change in recommendation of our coverage universe: We have cut targets prices for our covered companies by 10-30% on account of reduced earnings expectations as well as lower target multiples.</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>Near term earnings outlook weak and positive triggers missing: We expect earnings to remain weak for the cement sector for the next two quarters on account of elevated costs and weak realizations amid a seasonally weak demand period.</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>Reversal in coal and crude prices can offer some solace: We believe that high competitive intensity will subside once the inflationary pressures recede and hence reversal of higher coal and crude prices is important.</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Summary of change in recommendation of our coverage universe: We have cut targets prices for our covered companies by 10-30% on account of reduced earnings expectations as well as lower target multiples.Near term earnings outlook weak and positive triggers missing: We expect earnings to remain weak for the cement sector for the next two quarters on account of elevated costs and weak realizations amid a seasonally weak demand period.Reversal in coal and crude prices can offer some solace: We believe that high competitive intensity will subside once the inflationary pressures recede and hence reversal of higher coal and crude prices is important.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cement Sector - Headwinds Galore; Turning 'neutral' on the Sector

APAC IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Clarence Chu

APAC IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Paradeep Phosphates / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Paradeep Phosphates raised around US$194m in its India IPO. The IPO consisted of a mix of primary and secondary shares.</li>
<li>Subscription for PP's IPO had been tepid and previous deals with similar subscription rates had produced mixed performances upon debut.</li>
<li>Were the firm to trade towards its closer peers’ average, there is a 5% upside potential and -18.6% downside potential on the FY23E and FY24E EV/EBITDA front, respectively. </li>
</ul>


Paradeep Phosphates raised around US$194m in its India IPO. The IPO consisted of a mix of primary and secondary shares.
Subscription for PP's IPO had been tepid and previous deals with similar subscription rates had produced mixed performances upon debut.
Were the firm to trade towards its closer peers’ average, there is a 5% upside potential and -18.6% downside potential on the FY23E and FY24E EV/EBITDA front, respectively. 


Paradeep Phosphates IPO Trading - Tepid Demand and Anchor Quality Isn't the Greatest

Equity Bottom-Up

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>4QFY22 performance: Nuvoco has reported extremely good set of numbers given the challenging environment with EBITDA of Rs4.25bn against our expectation of Rs3.8bn.</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>Capex update: Nuvoco plans to augment its cement volume by ~2.4mn mt from both north and east regions.</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>Outlook: Given the increased competition in the eastern region post recent capex by various companies, it will be challenging for Nuvoco to sustain this performance.</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

4QFY22 performance: Nuvoco has reported extremely good set of numbers given the challenging environment with EBITDA of Rs4.25bn against our expectation of Rs3.8bn.Capex update: Nuvoco plans to augment its cement volume by ~2.4mn mt from both north and east regions.Outlook: Given the increased competition in the eastern region post recent capex by various companies, it will be challenging for Nuvoco to sustain this performance.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Nuvoco Vistas Corporation Ltd - Good Results Amid Challenging Environment

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

<div><div><div><ul><li>JK Cement: We maintain our REDUCE rating on JK Cement (JKCE), with a lower TP of INR 2,485 (11.5x Mar-23E consolidated EBITDA).</li></ul><div><div><ul><li>The Ramco Cements: We maintain ADD on The Ramco Cements (TRCL), with a revised target price of INR 745/share (13x Mar-24E EBITDA).</li><li>Nuvoco Vistas: We maintain BUY on Nuvoco Vistas, with an unchanged TP of INR 620/share (11x its consolidated Mar-24E EBITDA).</li></ul><div><div><div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

JK Cement: We maintain our REDUCE rating on JK Cement (JKCE), with a lower TP of INR 2,485 (11.5x Mar-23E consolidated EBITDA).The Ramco Cements: We maintain ADD on The Ramco Cements (TRCL), with a revised target price of INR 745/share (13x Mar-24E EBITDA).Nuvoco Vistas: We maintain BUY on Nuvoco Vistas, with an unchanged TP of INR 620/share (11x its consolidated Mar-24E EBITDA).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: JK Cement, The Ramco Cements, Nuvoco Vistas, Heidelberg Cement, Karur Vysya Bank

India

Nuvoco Vistas Corporation Limited provides construction materials. The Company offers cement, ready mix concrete, and aggregates. Nuvoco Vistas serves customers in India.

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Nuvoco Vistas (NUVOCO IN)

India: AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview

With 9 trading days to go in the review period, we see 5 stocks moving from Mid to Large and 7 stocks moving the other way. 2 new listings will be...

Brian Freitas

Cement Sector - Headwinds Galore; Turning 'neutral' on the Sector

We are turning ‘neutral’ on the cement sector as we believe that there are multiple headwinds, which will inhibit earnings growth and in turn lead...

Nirmal Bang

Paradeep Phosphates IPO Trading - Tepid Demand and Anchor Quality Isn't the Greatest

Paradeep Phosphates raised around US$194m in its India IPO. Subscription for PP's IPO had been tepid and previous deals with similar subscription...

Clarence Chu

Nuvoco Vistas Corporation Ltd - Good Results Amid Challenging Environment

Nuvoco Vistas Corporation Ltd (Nuvoco) has reported good set of results for 4QFY22, with EBITDA coming in at Rs4.25bn (up 87% QoQ) against our...

Nirmal Bang

HSIE Results Daily: JK Cement, The Ramco Cements, Nuvoco Vistas, Heidelberg Cement, Karur Vysya Bank

JK Cement: We maintain our REDUCE rating on JK Cement (JKCE), with a lower TP of INR 2,485 (11.5x Mar-23E consolidated EBITDA).

HDFC Securities

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