External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

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Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Healthy volumes; mixed pricing trend across regions: We estimate our coverage universe of 15 companies to deliver 8% YoY volume growth (three-year CAGR: 8%) in Q2FY23</li><li>We estimate average utilisation of ~71% vs 78/70% QoQ/YoY. In our view, cement prices fell ~3% QoQ on pan-India basis in Q2</li><li>Prices fell 5-6% QoQ each in north and central regions, 3-4% each in east and west regions and ~1-2% in south</li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Healthy volumes; mixed pricing trend across regions: We estimate our coverage universe of 15 companies to deliver 8% YoY volume growth (three-year CAGR: 8%) in Q2FY23We estimate average utilisation of ~71% vs 78/70% QoQ/YoY. In our view, cement prices fell ~3% QoQ on pan-India basis in Q2Prices fell 5-6% QoQ each in north and central regions, 3-4% each in east and west regions and ~1-2% in southContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cement (Q2FY23 Results Preview): Healthy offtake; costs to peak out in Q2

<div><div><div><ul><li>High volume growth on a low base YoY: We estimate that 15 companies under coverage would report ~7% QoQ aggregate seasonal sales volume decline.</li><li>Mixed realisation gains QoQ: While energy cost continues to rise QoQ, the industry could not fully pass on the inflation across all regions.</li><li>Cost inflation elevated: We estimate that overall fuel costs would soar 7/42% QoQ/YoY amid rising imported coal and pet coke prices.</li></ul><ul style="list-style-type: none;"><li> </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p></div></div></div>

High volume growth on a low base YoY: We estimate that 15 companies under coverage would report ~7% QoQ aggregate seasonal sales volume decline.Mixed realisation gains QoQ: While energy cost continues to rise QoQ, the industry could not fully pass on the inflation across all regions.Cost inflation elevated: We estimate that overall fuel costs would soar 7/42% QoQ/YoY amid rising imported coal and pet coke prices. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cement - Cost Inflation Continues, Margin Contracts

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Nirmal Bang

Nirmal Bang

A Relationship Beyond Broking

Nirmal Bang, one of the leading stock broking companies in India, caters to retail and institutional clients by offering them a range of financial products and services, including equities, derivatives, commodities, currency derivatives, mutual funds, IPOs, insurance, depository services and PMS.

Nirmal Bang is drawn from a diversity of professional backgrounds, and blend of experience, skill and dedication is shared with its clients. Nirmal Bang emphasizes adequate, thorough research local and world-wide developments, balancing these with the astute discovery of intrinsic values, synergies and growth. The aim is simply to help the investors to maximize their returns.

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Weak seasonal demand and decline in prices against the backdrop of high input costs would mean muted realizations</li><li>The trend in cement pricing has been discouraging so far.</li><li>The news regarding CCI’s investigation on cement companies might be a factor for subdued pricing.</li></ul></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Weak seasonal demand and decline in prices against the backdrop of high input costs would mean muted realizationsThe trend in cement pricing has been discouraging so far.The news regarding CCI’s investigation on cement companies might be a factor for subdued pricing.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cement Sector - Elevated Energy Costs to Weigh on Margins

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Nearing the end of the review period, we see 5 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 2 new listings added to LargeCap and 7 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap.</li>
<li>We see 7 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap, 3 new listings added to MidCap, and 12 stocks moving from MidCap to SmallCap.</li>
<li>Stock migrating upward have, on average, outperformed stocks that are downward migrations. Stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap have performed the best.</li>
</ul>


Nearing the end of the review period, we see 5 stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap, 2 new listings added to LargeCap and 7 stocks moving from LargeCap to MidCap.
We see 7 stocks moving from SmallCap to MidCap, 3 new listings added to MidCap, and 12 stocks moving from MidCap to SmallCap.
Stock migrating upward have, on average, outperformed stocks that are downward migrations. Stocks moving from MidCap to LargeCap have performed the best.


India: AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview

<div><div><div><div><ul><li>Summary of change in recommendation of our coverage universe: We have cut targets prices for our covered companies by 10-30% on account of reduced earnings expectations as well as lower target multiples.</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>Near term earnings outlook weak and positive triggers missing: We expect earnings to remain weak for the cement sector for the next two quarters on account of elevated costs and weak realizations amid a seasonally weak demand period.</li></ul><div><div><div><div><ul><li>Reversal in coal and crude prices can offer some solace: We believe that high competitive intensity will subside once the inflationary pressures recede and hence reversal of higher coal and crude prices is important.</li></ul></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div></div><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Summary of change in recommendation of our coverage universe: We have cut targets prices for our covered companies by 10-30% on account of reduced earnings expectations as well as lower target multiples.Near term earnings outlook weak and positive triggers missing: We expect earnings to remain weak for the cement sector for the next two quarters on account of elevated costs and weak realizations amid a seasonally weak demand period.Reversal in coal and crude prices can offer some solace: We believe that high competitive intensity will subside once the inflationary pressures recede and hence reversal of higher coal and crude prices is important.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cement Sector - Headwinds Galore; Turning 'neutral' on the Sector

India

Nuvoco Vistas Corporation Limited provides construction materials. The Company offers cement, ready mix concrete, and aggregates. Nuvoco Vistas serves customers in India.

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Nuvoco Vistas (NUVOCO IN)

Cement (Q2FY23 Results Preview): Healthy offtake; costs to peak out in Q2

Healthy volumes; mixed pricing trend across regions: We estimate our coverage universe of 15 companies to deliver 8% YoY volume growth (three-year...

HDFC Securities

Cement - Cost Inflation Continues, Margin Contracts

High volume growth on a low base YoY: We estimate that 15 companies under coverage would report ~7% QoQ aggregate seasonal sales volume decline.

HDFC Securities

Cement Sector - Elevated Energy Costs to Weigh on Margins

1QFY23 earnings for the cement sector will be muted as we expect margin pressure to continue in the near term due to higher operating costs,...

Nirmal Bang

India: AMFI Stock Reclassification Preview

With 9 trading days to go in the review period, we see 5 stocks moving from Mid to Large and 7 stocks moving the other way. 2 new listings will be...

Brian Freitas

Cement Sector - Headwinds Galore; Turning 'neutral' on the Sector

We are turning ‘neutral’ on the cement sector as we believe that there are multiple headwinds, which will inhibit earnings growth and in turn lead...

Nirmal Bang

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