Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist, Steno Research

Andreas Steno

Head of Research and Global Chief Strategist

Macro and Geopolitical Research House

Steno Research

Steno Research is a new macro and geopolitical research house. We are based out of Copenhagen, Denmark, but have an international team and a strong network of sources and partners around the world. The team is lead by Andreas Steno, previous global head of strategy at Nordea Bank, and Mikkel Rosenvold, former chief consultant in the Danish Ministry of Finance.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul><li>The combination of the IRA and CSA makes up the largest investment in rural US electrification since 1936, and the most notable effect has been in construction spending within the manufacturing sector.</li><li>Favorable terms, hereunder significant tax credits, have drawn investments like moths to a flame.</li><li>Manufacturing construction is currently up some 70% YoY – Tailwinds for our cyclically tilted portfolio.</li></ul>

The combination of the IRA and CSA makes up the largest investment in rural US electrification since 1936, and the most notable effect has been in construction spending within the manufacturing sector.Favorable terms, hereunder significant tax credits, have drawn investments like moths to a flame.Manufacturing construction is currently up some 70% YoY – Tailwinds for our cyclically tilted portfolio.

Manufacturing Nugget: The Inflation Refueling Act?

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The changes at the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225</a> September rebalance were announced on 4 September. The rebalance of the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hong-kong-hang-seng-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22899:1" rel="noopener">HSI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-china-enterprises-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22900:1" rel="noopener">HSCEI</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-tech-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31367:1" rel="noopener">HSTECH</a> and HSCI was implemented on the same day.</li>
<li>The changes to the MVIS indices were announced on 8 September and will be implemented at the close on 15 September. The S&amp;P/ASX family will also rebalance on 15 September.</li>
<li>After a month and a half of big inflows to onshore China ETFs, there were small outflows from a lot of ETFs during the week.</li>
</ul>


The changes at the Nikkei 225 September rebalance were announced on 4 September. The rebalance of the HSI, HSCEI, HSTECH and HSCI was implemented on the same day.
The changes to the MVIS indices were announced on 8 September and will be implemented at the close on 15 September. The S&amp;P/ASX family will also rebalance on 15 September.
After a month and a half of big inflows to onshore China ETFs, there were small outflows from a lot of ETFs during the week.


Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, KOSDAQ150, Yuanta ETFs, MVA, MVW, SMH

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Index Rebalance

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>The upcoming rebalance of the MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index will be implemented on 15 September. There are no constituent changes, but there are float and capping changes.</li>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-semiconductor" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32807:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US)</a> ETF tracks the index and has an AUM of US$9.7bn.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 5.9% resulting in a one-way trade of US$595m. The stocks are extremely liquid, the impact on the stock in terms of ADV to trade is small.</li>
</ul>


The upcoming rebalance of the MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index will be implemented on 15 September. There are no constituent changes, but there are float and capping changes.
The VanEck Vectors Semiconductor (SMH US) ETF tracks the index and has an AUM of US$9.7bn.
Estimated one-way turnover is 5.9% resulting in a one-way trade of US$595m. The stocks are extremely liquid, the impact on the stock in terms of ADV to trade is small.


MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Upweight for TSMC

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Due to the sharp appreciation of Hana Micron's share price this year, its valuation discount to companies such as HPSP has narrowed substantially. </li>
<li>Samsung Electronics is one of the major customers of Hana Micron. Samsung recently reported that it has successfully secured the right to supply advanced memory chips to NVIDIA.</li>
<li>We do not believe Hana Micron's valuations are attractive right now. Rather than chasing after its shares, we would rather wait for its shares to retreat (20-30%) a bit.</li>
</ul>


Due to the sharp appreciation of Hana Micron's share price this year, its valuation discount to companies such as HPSP has narrowed substantially. 
Samsung Electronics is one of the major customers of Hana Micron. Samsung recently reported that it has successfully secured the right to supply advanced memory chips to NVIDIA.
We do not believe Hana Micron's valuations are attractive right now. Rather than chasing after its shares, we would rather wait for its shares to retreat (20-30%) a bit.


Hana Micron: Semiconductor Chips Packaging Company With Solid Fundamentals and FOMO Trading

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>US graphics chip designer <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nvidia-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5891:1" rel="noopener">NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)</a> has, to date, sourced HBM3 chips exclusively from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sk-hynix-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16955:1" rel="noopener">SK Hynix (000660 KS)</a>.</li>
<li>Shares in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/samsung-electronics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:191:1" rel="noopener">Samsung Electronics (005930 KS)</a> promptly popped ~6% last Friday on news it had been added as a supplier to NVIDIA.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hana-micron-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1464:1" rel="noopener">Hana Micron Inc (067310 KS)</a>, which boasts Samsung as its largest customer, similarly jumped, and is up 45% in the past week. Too much too quickly?</li>
</ul>


US graphics chip designer NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US) has, to date, sourced HBM3 chips exclusively from SK Hynix (000660 KS).
Shares in Samsung Electronics (005930 KS) promptly popped ~6% last Friday on news it had been added as a supplier to NVIDIA.

Hana Micron Inc (067310 KS), which boasts Samsung as its largest customer, similarly jumped, and is up 45% in the past week. Too much too quickly?


Hana Micron's Boost From Samsung/Nvidia Agreement

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Manufacturing Nugget: The Inflation Refueling Act?

The combination of the IRA and CSA makes up the largest investment in rural US electrification since 1936, and the most notable effect has been in...

Steno Research

Index Rebalance & ETF Flow Recap: NKY, ASX, CSI300, KOSDAQ150, Yuanta ETFs, MVA, MVW, SMH

This recap highlights Insights covering Asian index rebalances (announcements/ forecasts/ IPO Fast Entry/ M&A driven changes). We also highlight...

Brian Freitas

MVIS US Listed Semiconductor 25 Index Rebalance: Upweight for TSMC

No constituent changes, but there are float/capping changes. Estimated one-way turnover is 5.9% resulting in a one-way trade of US$595m. Stocks are...

Brian Freitas

Hana Micron: Semiconductor Chips Packaging Company With Solid Fundamentals and FOMO Trading

We do not believe Hana Micron's valuations are attractive right now. Rather than chasing after its shares, we would rather wait for its shares to...

Douglas Kim

Hana Micron's Boost From Samsung/Nvidia Agreement

Hana appears expensive. On the surface. Yet forecast figures are impressive as Hana rides on Samsung's coatails. At a 6x and 4.7x FY24E and FY25E...

David Blennerhassett

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