AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Nvidia's operating cash fell to $15.4B from $27.4B last quarter, even as net income climbed to $26.4B.</li>
<li>Receivables jumped to $5.7B with Days Sales Outstanding at 54 days, while accrued liabilities flipped to a $4B drag.</li>
<li>The balance sheet shows a company pushing more product out than cash is coming in; the predicament arising from Nvidia's revenue booking model.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia's operating cash fell to $15.4B from $27.4B last quarter, even as net income climbed to $26.4B.
Receivables jumped to $5.7B with Days Sales Outstanding at 54 days, while accrued liabilities flipped to a $4B drag.
The balance sheet shows a company pushing more product out than cash is coming in; the predicament arising from Nvidia's revenue booking model.


Working Capital Strain: Why Nvidia’s Cash Flow Isn’t Keeping Up with Its Profits

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors, The Circuit

The Circuit

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors

A Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors. With Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin

<ul>
<li>Nvidia's performance in the industry show was okay, with the stock being slightly off and mixed reactions from analysts.</li>
<li>The company is continuing to grow at a significant rate, but there are concerns about AI market trends and China relations.</li>
<li>Questions surround Nvidia's potential deal with China, with uncertainties about revenue sharing and government involvement.</li>
</ul>
<p><em>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.</em></p>


Nvidia's performance in the industry show was okay, with the stock being slightly off and mixed reactions from analysts.
The company is continuing to grow at a significant rate, but there are concerns about AI market trends and China relations.
Questions surround Nvidia's potential deal with China, with uncertainties about revenue sharing and government involvement.

This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

EP 132: NVIDIA Earnings + Ben's Thesis Time and Those Lumpy ASICs.

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Jensen claims his Taiwan expansion is just about needing more chairs, yet an NVIDIA blog post describes the Santa Clara HQ taking to the skies &amp; landing in Taiwan. </li>
<li>He was critical of US restrictions on China chip exports while in Taipei, yet had nothing to say on the topic while in the White House or the Middle East</li>
<li>NVIDIA's market share in China is down from 95% in 2022 to 50% now, yet the country continues to challenge global AI leadership. That puts NVIDIA in an awkward spot.</li>
</ul>


Jensen claims his Taiwan expansion is just about needing more chairs, yet an NVIDIA blog post describes the Santa Clara HQ taking to the skies &amp; landing in Taiwan. 
He was critical of US restrictions on China chip exports while in Taipei, yet had nothing to say on the topic while in the White House or the Middle East
NVIDIA's market share in China is down from 95% in 2022 to 50% now, yet the country continues to challenge global AI leadership. That puts NVIDIA in an awkward spot.


NVIDIA's China Dilema Is Worse Than You Think...

Technology / Semiconductor / Internet Research

Nicolas Baratte

<ul>
<li>April 2025, the US Gvt extended restrictions on Nvidia’s China-specific H20 chip. Restriction also apply to H20’s memory bandwidth. This means SK Hynix HBM and TSMC CoWoS.   </li>
<li>Nvidia new China-specific chip derive from this: a downgraded chip, half a Blackwell, without HBM-CoWoS packaging. Time to design, manufacture, could lead to ~15% downside risk to FY26 Consensus?   </li>
<li>FY26 revenues could land at US$175bn or  -12% below Consensus at 199bn. $175bn implies 35% growth YoY, Consensus expects 52%. The stock trades at “low” 30x FY26 and 24x FY27.</li>
</ul>


April 2025, the US Gvt extended restrictions on Nvidia’s China-specific H20 chip. Restriction also apply to H20’s memory bandwidth. This means SK Hynix HBM and TSMC CoWoS.   
Nvidia new China-specific chip derive from this: a downgraded chip, half a Blackwell, without HBM-CoWoS packaging. Time to design, manufacture, could lead to ~15% downside risk to FY26 Consensus?   
FY26 revenues could land at US$175bn or  -12% below Consensus at 199bn. $175bn implies 35% growth YoY, Consensus expects 52%. The stock trades at “low” 30x FY26 and 24x FY27.


Nvidia’s Jensen Complaining About Export Restrictions to China: How Much Is at Stake? Quite a Lot.

<ul>
<li>Nvidia beat revenue expectations by 1.5% with $46.7 billion in revenue; data centre growth underwhelmed, with compute slipping sequentially.</li>
<li>Blackwell is ramping at full speed, while Rubin’s six chips have already taped out at TSMC, keeping Nvidia’s annual launch cadence intact.</li>
<li>Inventory jumped to $15B, and China licenses remain uncertain, leaving little margin for error.</li>
</ul>


Nvidia beat revenue expectations by 1.5% with $46.7 billion in revenue; data centre growth underwhelmed, with compute slipping sequentially.
Blackwell is ramping at full speed, while Rubin’s six chips have already taped out at TSMC, keeping Nvidia’s annual launch cadence intact.
Inventory jumped to $15B, and China licenses remain uncertain, leaving little margin for error.


Networking Powers Nvidia's Quarter, but Core Growth Under Scrutiny

United States

NVIDIA Corporation designs, develops, and markets three dimensional (3D) graphics processors and related software.  The Company's products provide interactive 3D graphics to the mainstream personal computer market.

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NVIDIA Corp (NVDA US)

Working Capital Strain: Why Nvidia’s Cash Flow Isn’t Keeping Up with Its Profits

Nvidia's cash reserves dropped significantly despite increased net income; the company's revenue booking model that pushes out more product than...

Mint Finance

EP 132: NVIDIA Earnings + Ben's Thesis Time and Those Lumpy ASICs.

Overall, the Nvidia stock was down despite meeting analyst expectations, as concerns about China and lack of clarity on revenue impact caused...

The Circuit

NVIDIA's China Dilema Is Worse Than You Think...

NVIDIA's market share in China is down from 95% in 2022 to 50% now, yet the country continues to challenge global AI leadership. That puts NVIDIA...

William Keating

Nvidia’s Jensen Complaining About Export Restrictions to China: How Much Is at Stake? Quite a Lot.

Nvidia new China-specific chip GPU will take time, leading to potential downside risk for FY26 revenues. But the stock is trading at low multiples

Nicolas Baratte

Networking Powers Nvidia's Quarter, but Core Growth Under Scrutiny

Nvidia exceeded revenue expectations but faces challenges with data centre growth vis-à-vis falling compute, along with uncertainty in China...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Working Capital Strain: Why Nvidia’s Cash Flow Isn’t Keeping Up with Its Profits

​Nvidia's cash reserves dropped significantly despite increased net income; the company's revenue booking model that pushes out more product than...

Mint Finance

EP 132: NVIDIA Earnings + Ben's Thesis Time and Those Lumpy ASICs.

Overall, the Nvidia stock was down despite meeting analyst expectations, as concerns about China and lack of clarity on revenue impact caused...

The Circuit

NVIDIA's China Dilema Is Worse Than You Think...

NVIDIA's market share in China is down from 95% in 2022 to 50% now, yet the country continues to challenge global AI leadership. That puts NVIDIA...

William Keating

Nvidia’s Jensen Complaining About Export Restrictions to China: How Much Is at Stake? Quite a Lot.

​Nvidia new China-specific chip GPU will take time, leading to potential downside risk for FY26 revenues. But the stock is trading at low multiples

Nicolas Baratte

Networking Powers Nvidia's Quarter, but Core Growth Under Scrutiny

​Nvidia exceeded revenue expectations but faces challenges with data centre growth vis-à-vis falling compute, along with uncertainty in China...

Mint Finance

Nvidia's cash reserves dropped significantly despite increased net income; the company's revenue booking model that pushes out more product than...

Nvidia new China-specific chip GPU will take time, leading to potential downside risk for FY26 revenues. But the stock is trading at low multiples

Nvidia exceeded revenue expectations but faces challenges with data centre growth vis-à-vis falling compute, along with uncertainty in China...