Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Gold fever continues Down Under as <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausgold-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19133:1" rel="noopener">Ausgold Ltd (AUC AU)</a></strong> enters into a Scheme with <strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oceanagold-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25379:1" rel="noopener">OceanaGold Corp (OGC CN)</a></strong><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oceanagold-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25379:1" rel="noopener"></a>.</li>
<li>OceanaGold is offering 0.03365 new shares for each Ausgold share, or an indicative Offer price of A$1.36/share, a 28% premium. A capped cash option is afforded, also at A$1.36/share.</li>
<li>Post merger, Ausgold shareholders would hold ~7.9% (if 100% scrip consideration). A key shareholder and directors (collectively holding 9.1%) are supportive. December completion expected.  Clean deal. Interlopers possible.</li>
</ul>


Gold fever continues Down Under as Ausgold Ltd (AUC AU) enters into a Scheme with OceanaGold Corp (OGC CN).
OceanaGold is offering 0.03365 new shares for each Ausgold share, or an indicative Offer price of A$1.36/share, a 28% premium. A capped cash option is afforded, also at A$1.36/share.
Post merger, Ausgold shareholders would hold ~7.9% (if 100% scrip consideration). A key shareholder and directors (collectively holding 9.1%) are supportive. December completion expected.  Clean deal. Interlopers possible.


OceanaGold (OGC CN) Claims Ausgold (AUC AU). Clean Deal

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ausgold-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19133:1" rel="noopener">Ausgold Ltd (AUC AU)</a> has entered into a scheme with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oceanagold-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:25379:1" rel="noopener">OceanaGold Corp (OGC CN)</a> at 0.03365 OGC shares per AUC share, a 27.7% premium to the last close.</li>
<li>Regulatory approvals (ACCC and FIRB) are low-risk. The exchange ratio is fair, and the implied offer represents a 10-year high. </li>
<li>Despite emerging retail opposition, the scheme vote is low-risk. Although the offer is reasonable, it is not a knockout bid, so another bidder could emerge. </li>
</ul>



Ausgold Ltd (AUC AU) has entered into a scheme with OceanaGold Corp (OGC CN) at 0.03365 OGC shares per AUC share, a 27.7% premium to the last close.
Regulatory approvals (ACCC and FIRB) are low-risk. The exchange ratio is fair, and the implied offer represents a 10-year high. 
Despite emerging retail opposition, the scheme vote is low-risk. Although the offer is reasonable, it is not a knockout bid, so another bidder could emerge. 


Ausgold (AUC AU): OceanaGold’s Scheme Offer While Fair, Could Attract a Competing Bid

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vault-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46317:1" rel="noopener">Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genesis-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4650:1" rel="noopener">Genesis Minerals (GMD AU)</a> entered into a scheme at 0.7629 GMD shares per VAU share + A$0.475 cash per share.</li>
<li>Genesis has long been rumoured to be a suitor for Vault because a combination of the two would create the dominant player in Western Australia’s most valuable gold-mining regions.</li>
<li>The key condition is Vault shareholder approval. The scheme vote is low risk due to a fair merger exchange ratio and the offer arising from a competitive bidding process.</li>
</ul>



Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU) and Genesis Minerals (GMD AU) entered into a scheme at 0.7629 GMD shares per VAU share + A$0.475 cash per share.
Genesis has long been rumoured to be a suitor for Vault because a combination of the two would create the dominant player in Western Australia’s most valuable gold-mining regions.
The key condition is Vault shareholder approval. The scheme vote is low risk due to a fair merger exchange ratio and the offer arising from a competitive bidding process.


Vault Minerals (VAU AU): Regis Walks as Genesis Emerges as the Winner

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Zijin Gold International / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 9 additions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> in June. Plus, one listing switch and a whole bunch of float and capping changes.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 6.2% and that leads to a round-trip trade of US$3.4bn. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold International (2259 HK)</a> has been added following an increase in free float, and the passive buying could provide short-term support for the stock.</li>
</ul>


There are 9 additions for the VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) in June. Plus, one listing switch and a whole bunch of float and capping changes.
Estimated one-way turnover is 6.2% and that leads to a round-trip trade of US$3.4bn. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade from passive trackers.

Zijin Gold International (2259 HK) has been added following an increase in free float, and the passive buying could provide short-term support for the stock.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) June Rebalance: 9 Adds and US$3.4bn Trade

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>There will be nine ADDs for the June 2026 rebal event. We predicted five correctly (we thought 6 ADDs) and the other four were very close to the border.</li>
<li>We expect one-way flow of US$1.4bn and a turnover of 5% in June 2026. We see each ADD having US$100mm+ to trade.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/regis-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20106:1" rel="noopener">Regis Resources (RRL AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vault-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46317:1" rel="noopener">Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU)</a> will be index members during their expected merger in late August/early September.</li>
</ul>


There will be nine ADDs for the June 2026 rebal event. We predicted five correctly (we thought 6 ADDs) and the other four were very close to the border.
We expect one-way flow of US$1.4bn and a turnover of 5% in June 2026. We see each ADD having US$100mm+ to trade.

Regis Resources (RRL AU) and Vault Minerals Ltd (VAU AU) will be index members during their expected merger in late August/early September.


[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Jun26 Rebal Results: Nine ADDs; US$1.4bn One-Way

Australia

OceanaGold Corporation is a gold mining and exploration company. The Company currently owns interests in projects in New Zealand and the Philippines.

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OceanaGold Corp (OGC CN)

OceanaGold (OGC CN) Claims Ausgold (AUC AU). Clean Deal

A straightforward gold merger. Trading tightish at a gross/annualised spread of 4.2%/11.7%, assuming late December completion. If you can take down...

David Blennerhassett

Ausgold (AUC AU): OceanaGold’s Scheme Offer While Fair, Could Attract a Competing Bid

Despite emerging retail opposition, the scheme vote is low-risk. Although the offer is reasonable, it is not a knockout bid, so another bidder...

Arun George

Vault Minerals (VAU AU): Regis Walks as Genesis Emerges as the Winner

The scheme vote is low risk due to a fair merger exchange ratio and the offer arising from a competitive bidding process. This is a done deal.

Arun George

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) June Rebalance: 9 Adds and US$3.4bn Trade

9 adds, float and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 6.2% and to a round-trip trade of US$3.4bn. There are many stocks with...

Brian Freitas

[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Jun26 Rebal Results: Nine ADDs; US$1.4bn One-Way

MV Global Gold saw a lot more adds than we expected (we saw 6 but we're getting 9). Some of the names have significant flows to buy on an ADV basis.

Travis Lundy

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