Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares MSCI ACWI ETF / Technical Analysis

The broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE) have pulled back to test key intermediate-term supports, and we expect to see buyers step in near current levels. Market dynamics remain largely healthy and our outlook remains neutral yet constructive overall. We see this pullback as a buying opportunity, however breakdowns would be problematic and would suggest additional downside or consolidation is likely.

The broad global indexes (MSCI ACWI, ACWI ex-US, and EAFE) have pulled back to test key intermediate-term supports, and we expect to see buyers step in near current levels. Market dynamics remain largely healthy and our outlook remains neutral yet constructive overall. We see this pullback as a buying opportunity, however breakdowns would be problematic and would suggest additional downside or consolidation is likely.

MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Key Supports; Buy Ideas in Financials, Materials, Industrials

GigaDevice Semiconductor  / Technical Analysis

Market dynamics remain largely positive which continues to support our constructive outlook, and we view recent weakness as a buying opportunity. Below we highlight notable recent developments and actionable stocks within the Technology, Financials, and Materials Sectors.

Market dynamics remain largely positive which continues to support our constructive outlook, and we view recent weakness as a buying opportunity. Below we highlight notable recent developments and actionable stocks within the Technology, Financials, and Materials Sectors.

China Technology Sector Improving -- Add Exposure

Potash Corp Of Saskatchewan / Technical Analysis

Breakouts in global fertilizer/potash stocks -- buy<ul><li>Breakouts from multi-year base and bottom patterns are the norm in North American names, including: AGU, CF, IPI, and POT. All four are buys.</li><li>Abroad, in Europe and EM, pullback opportunities are visible in OCI NV (OCI-NL), Incitec Pivot Ltd (IPL-AU), Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM), and Yara Int’l (YAR-NO), Here, too, all four are buys.</li><li>For ETF investors, the Global X Fertilizers/Potash ETF (SOIL) is this theme’s closest pure-play. The names highlighted above account for a 35.8% weighting.</li></ul>

Breakouts in global fertilizer/potash stocks -- buyBreakouts from multi-year base and bottom patterns are the norm in North American names, including: AGU, CF, IPI, and POT. All four are buys.Abroad, in Europe and EM, pullback opportunities are visible in OCI NV (OCI-NL), Incitec Pivot Ltd (IPL-AU), Sociedad Quimica y Minera de Chile (SQM), and Yara Int’l (YAR-NO), Here, too, all four are buys.For ETF investors, the Global X Fertilizers/Potash ETF (SOIL) is this theme’s closest pure-play. The names highlighted above account for a 35.8% weighting.

Global Fertilizer/Potash Stocks Are Breaking Out. Buy.

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nufarm-ltd-australia" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1128:1" rel="noopener">Nufarm (NUF AU)</a>, an agricultural chemical company , is down ~40% since it announced a 39.5% decline in 1H25 profit. The share price is at the lowest level since Covid. </li>
<li>Concurrent with this results, Nufarm announced a review of its seed technology ops. Reportedly Advanta, BP - amongst others- are vying for the est. A$900mn business.   </li>
<li>Elsewhere, it is being reported that key shareholders recommend the Nufarm board explore a full takeover. </li>
</ul>



Nufarm (NUF AU), an agricultural chemical company , is down ~40% since it announced a 39.5% decline in 1H25 profit. The share price is at the lowest level since Covid. 
Concurrent with this results, Nufarm announced a review of its seed technology ops. Reportedly Advanta, BP - amongst others- are vying for the est. A$900mn business.   
Elsewhere, it is being reported that key shareholders recommend the Nufarm board explore a full takeover. 


Nufarm (NUF AU): Seed Sale Or Full Takeover - Something May Have To Give

External reports (aggregated public sources), Value Investors Club

Value Investors Club (VIC)

External reports (aggregated public sources)

Value Investors Club

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>OCI undergoing solvent liquidation process, sparking interest in updating story and economics</li><li>Focus on latest updates on OCI and PF capital structure, equity thesis, credit thesis</li><li>Multiple disposal transactions in past 10 months, including sale of businesses and retaining European nitrogen business</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

OCI undergoing solvent liquidation process, sparking interest in updating story and economicsFocus on latest updates on OCI and PF capital structure, equity thesis, credit thesisMultiple disposal transactions in past 10 months, including sale of businesses and retaining European nitrogen businessThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only. This article was originally published 3 months ago on Value Investors Club.

Oci Nv (US67116NAA72 Corp) - Friday, Sep 13, 2024

Netherlands

OCI N.V. is a fertilizer producer with projects and investments in Europe, the Americas, the Middle East, and North Africa. The Company is also an engineering & construction contractor.

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OCI NV (OCI NA)

MSCI ACWI, ACWI Ex-US, EAFE Testing Key Supports; Buy Ideas in Financials, Materials, Industrials

The MSCI ACWI (ACWI-US), ACWI ex-US (ACWX-US), and EAFE (EFA-US) are testing important intermediate-term support levels of $99, $54, and $76.50...

Vermilion Research

China Technology Sector Improving -- Add Exposure

Market dynamics remain largely positive which continues to support our constructive outlook, and we view recent weakness as a buying opportunity....

Vermilion Research

Global Fertilizer/Potash Stocks Are Breaking Out. Buy.

Breakouts in global fertilizer/potash stocks -- buy Breakouts from multi-year base and bottom patterns are the norm in North American names,...

Vermilion Research

Nufarm (NUF AU): Seed Sale Or Full Takeover - Something May Have To Give

Nufarm is not without issue. However on balance, the recent selldown has overshot to the downside. I'd be dipping my toe in around here.

David Blennerhassett

Oci Nv (US67116NAA72 Corp) - Friday, Sep 13, 2024

OCI undergoing solvent liquidation process, sparking interest in updating story and economics. Focus on latest updates on OCI and PF capital...

Value Investors Club (VIC)

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