IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP)</a> shares fell 8.8% after it confirmed the Nikkei report that the Japanese government has advised MBK to halt its acquisition on national security grounds.</li>
<li>However, after market close, the <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/business/business-deals/japan-backed-nssk-to-seek-takeover-of-makino-milling-machine" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nikkei reported</a> that Nippon Sangyo Suishin Kiko (NSSK), a Japanese investment company, plans to make a higher competing tender offer.</li>
<li>While the NSSK offer will be preconditional on regulatory approvals, it will not require FEFTA approval. I estimate the NSSK potential offer to be between JPY12,500 and JPY13,000.</li>
</ul>



Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP) shares fell 8.8% after it confirmed the Nikkei report that the Japanese government has advised MBK to halt its acquisition on national security grounds.
However, after market close, the Nikkei reported that Nippon Sangyo Suishin Kiko (NSSK), a Japanese investment company, plans to make a higher competing tender offer.
While the NSSK offer will be preconditional on regulatory approvals, it will not require FEFTA approval. I estimate the NSSK potential offer to be between JPY12,500 and JPY13,000.


Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): A Rollercoaster Ride as NSSK Rumoured to Launch a Competing Bid

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://asia.nikkei.com/business/companies/japan-moves-to-block-makino-machine-tool-takeover-on-security-concerns" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Nikkei reported</a> that the Japanese government has advised MBK to halt its acquisition ‌of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP)</a> on national security grounds.</li>
<li>This event sets a precedent and will increase the risk premium for foreign takeovers of Japanese companies in core business sectors. FEFTA approval can no longer be considered low-risk.</li>
<li>Due to a significant re-rating of peers/index and Makino’s upgraded forecasts since the offer announcement, the share price fall on a deal break is likely to be modest (&lt;10%). </li>
</ul>


The Nikkei reported that the Japanese government has advised MBK to halt its acquisition ‌of Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP) on national security grounds.
This event sets a precedent and will increase the risk premium for foreign takeovers of Japanese companies in core business sectors. FEFTA approval can no longer be considered low-risk.
Due to a significant re-rating of peers/index and Makino’s upgraded forecasts since the offer announcement, the share price fall on a deal break is likely to be modest (&lt;10%). 


Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Precedent Set as FEFTA Approval Is Rumoured to Be Not Forthcoming

<ul>
<li>Due to the delay in securing FEFTA approval, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/makino-milling-machine-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5200:1" rel="noopener">Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP)</a> has announced that the start of the MBK tender offer has been delayed to late June. </li>
<li>Makino is classified as a Type 3 company (core business), suggesting that MBK is negotiating undertakings to secure FEFTA approval.</li>
<li>Despite mitigating factors, the case for a bump is increasingly persuasive given peers' material reratings, Makino’s solid financial performance and lack of irrevocables.  </li>
</ul>


Due to the delay in securing FEFTA approval, Makino Milling Machine Co (6135 JP) has announced that the start of the MBK tender offer has been delayed to late June. 
Makino is classified as a Type 3 company (core business), suggesting that MBK is negotiating undertakings to secure FEFTA approval.
Despite mitigating factors, the case for a bump is increasingly persuasive given peers' material reratings, Makino’s solid financial performance and lack of irrevocables.  


Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Tender Delayed as the Case for a Bump Is Becoming Persuasive

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>Assuming the Nikkei 225 March 2026 rebal goes as expected in our <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/quiddity-index-nikkei-225-mar26-rebal-2-adds-3rd-poss-2-dels-1-cap-another-close" target="_blank" rel="noopener">final expectations insight</a>, there are likely to be two automatic ADDs and one sector catch-up ADD.</li>
<li>Higher value traded in the last 6-12mos in the semis and semi-precious metals sectors has meant stocks leapt up the rankings.</li>
<li>Interestingly, the third choice is likely to be a Capital Goods stock. If the Toyota Fudosan TOB fails, there is a dark horse case for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyota-industries-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:4500:1" rel="noopener">Toyota Industries (6201 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


Assuming the Nikkei 225 March 2026 rebal goes as expected in our final expectations insight, there are likely to be two automatic ADDs and one sector catch-up ADD.
Higher value traded in the last 6-12mos in the semis and semi-precious metals sectors has meant stocks leapt up the rankings.
Interestingly, the third choice is likely to be a Capital Goods stock. If the Toyota Fudosan TOB fails, there is a dark horse case for Toyota Industries (6201 JP).


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal Early Preview - 2 Auto ADDs, 1 Extra Likely, 1 Cap

Pan Pacific International Holdings / Index Rebalance

Pan Pacific International Holdings (7532 JP)

<ul>
<li>The Nikkei 225 data observation period closed a week ago. The Nikkei announced a cap on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/advantest-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18107:1" rel="noopener">Advantest Corp (6857 JP)</a>, as expected.</li>
<li>Quiddity expectations are unchanged. We see 1 clean ADD, 1 likely ADD (a third possible but unlikely). Against that, two DELetes.</li>
<li>As of now, there is $4bn a side to trade. Beware! The ADV counts are deceptive.</li>
</ul>


The Nikkei 225 data observation period closed a week ago. The Nikkei announced a cap on Advantest Corp (6857 JP), as expected.
Quiddity expectations are unchanged. We see 1 clean ADD, 1 likely ADD (a third possible but unlikely). Against that, two DELetes.
As of now, there is $4bn a side to trade. Beware! The ADV counts are deceptive.


[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 Rebal - 2 ADDs (3rd Poss?), 2 DELs, 1 CAP

Japan

OKUMA Corporation manufactures machine tools and other industrial machinery. The Company produces computerized numerically controlled (CNC) machine tools including lathes, machining centers (MCs), grinders, and drilling machines.

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Okuma Corp (6103 JP)

Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): A Rollercoaster Ride as NSSK Rumoured to Launch a Competing Bid

While the NSSK offer will be preconditional on regulatory approvals, it will not require FEFTA approval. I estimate the NSSK potential offer to be...

Arun George

Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Precedent Set as FEFTA Approval Is Rumoured to Be Not Forthcoming

FEFTA-related deal break is rare. Due to a significant re-rating of peers/index and upgraded forecasts since the offer announcement, the share...

Arun George

Makino Milling Machine (6135 JP): Tender Delayed as the Case for a Bump Is Becoming Persuasive

FEFTA approval should be forthcoming. Despite mitigating factors, the case for a bump is increasingly persuasive given peers' material reratings,...

Arun George

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Sep26 Rebal Early Preview - 2 Auto ADDs, 1 Extra Likely, 1 Cap

A preview of teh Sep 2026 Nikkei 225 rebal assuming changes are as expected for the Mar26 rebal suggests 3 ADDs and 3 DELETEs and $4bn of Advantest...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] Nikkei 225 Mar26 Rebal - 2 ADDs (3rd Poss?), 2 DELs, 1 CAP

The March 2026 Nikkei 225 rebal is "Ready to Go" as the data period ended a week ago (and I've been slow writing this). The only update since Jan...

Travis Lundy

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