New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Mainfreight (MFT) is due to report a strong start to FY27 in an Annual Shareholders Meeting (ASM) trading update on Thursday, 30 July 2026.</li><li>Moreover, we expect the update to be supportive of full-year consensus growth expectations (PBT +13% against the prior year), with risk to the upside.</li><li>Trading at ~22x one-year forward PE, MFT is at a meaningful discount to the average multiple of its closest listed peers—DSV (DSV.CO), Kuehne+Nagel (KNIN.S), and Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL.O).</li></ul>

Mainfreight (MFT) is due to report a strong start to FY27 in an Annual Shareholders Meeting (ASM) trading update on Thursday, 30 July 2026.Moreover, we expect the update to be supportive of full-year consensus growth expectations (PBT +13% against the prior year), with risk to the upside.Trading at ~22x one-year forward PE, MFT is at a meaningful discount to the average multiple of its closest listed peers—DSV (DSV.CO), Kuehne+Nagel (KNIN.S), and Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL.O).

Mainfreight ASM to Confirm Strong Start to FY27

<ul><li>Kuehne & Nagel (KNIN.S), a key international peer for Mainfreight (MFT), reported a 2Q26 result overnight, modestly above market expectations.</li><li>The result read-through for MFT is modestly positive with improving air &amp; sea freight conditions (both rates and volumes) particularly on eastbound Transpacific trade lanes.</li><li>Air freight: The stand-out feature in the result benefiting from market share gains and favourable mix (from semiconductors and cloud infrastructure growth).</li></ul>

Kuehne & Nagel (KNIN.S), a key international peer for Mainfreight (MFT), reported a 2Q26 result overnight, modestly above market expectations.The result read-through for MFT is modestly positive with improving air &amp; sea freight conditions (both rates and volumes) particularly on eastbound Transpacific trade lanes.Air freight: The stand-out feature in the result benefiting from market share gains and favourable mix (from semiconductors and cloud infrastructure growth).

Mainfreight (MFT.NZ) - K+N Q2 Read-Through

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

iShares Russell 2000 ETF / Technical Analysis

We continue to believe we are nearing the end of the "mixed market environment," and the beginning of a new, broad-based bull market advance. With that said, we are still waiting for confirmation in the form of breakouts for small-caps (IWM) and Industrials (XLI) in order to turn bullish. Additionally, we would like to see MSCI China (MCHI) break above $74 resistance; this would be a major boon for risk sentiment.Charts highlighted: Russell 2000 (IWM), SOXX, XTN, GLD vs. SPY, TNX, S&amp;P 500, AMD, MRVL, XLNX, STM, MPWR, ON, ENPH, SEDG, FSLR, RUN, SPWR, CSIQ, SOL, ODFL, JBHT, KNX, LSTR, SAIA, SNDR, ARCB, MRTN, PTSI, YELL, and USAK

We continue to believe we are nearing the end of the "mixed market environment," and the beginning of a new, broad-based bull market advance. With that said, we are still waiting for confirmation in the form of breakouts for small-caps (IWM) and Industrials (XLI) in order to turn bullish. Additionally, we would like to see MSCI China (MCHI) break above $74 resistance; this would be a major boon for risk sentiment.Charts highlighted: Russell 2000 (IWM), SOXX, XTN, GLD vs. SPY, TNX, S&amp;P 500, AMD, MRVL, XLNX, STM, MPWR, ON, ENPH, SEDG, FSLR, RUN, SPWR, CSIQ, SOL, ODFL, JBHT, KNX, LSTR, SAIA, SNDR, ARCB, MRTN, PTSI, YELL, and USAK

U.S. Equity Strategy: All Eyes On The Small Cap Russell 2000. Buying Semiconductors, Solar, Truckers

Market Intelligence, ORTEX

ORTEX Market Intel

Market Intelligence

Global Financial Data and Analytics Platform

ORTEX

ORTEX is a global financial data and analytics platform providing real-time securities lending and short interest data, index rebalance data, holdings and insider transactions, trading signals, corporate actions and news,  stock machine learning and factor scores and other analytics. The majority of the data are downloadable and accessible through APIs.

Equity Derivatives

Banco Bilbao Vizcaya Argentari / Equity Derivatives

<ul><li>Options markets flashed a split signal this week.</li><li>European financials drew the most persistent put-buying of the period, while select US names saw call buyers overwhelm hedgers.</li><li>Earnings-linked hedging dominated mid-week flows, with several 52-week PCR records broken in both directions.</li></ul>

Options markets flashed a split signal this week.European financials drew the most persistent put-buying of the period, while select US names saw call buyers overwhelm hedgers.Earnings-linked hedging dominated mid-week flows, with several 52-week PCR records broken in both directions.

Options Weekly: Bears Circle Banks, Bulls Chase Storage and Discretionary

The rotation out of stay-at-home/COVID-19 beneficiary stocks and into reopening/economically sensitive stocks that we highlighted last week has continued, leading us to make several upgrades and one downgrade (see first bullet below). This broadening-out of participation and several other bullish developments highlighted below tells us the bulls have the upper hand. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Discretionary, Transportation, and Manufacturing: CD-05 Auto Parts Retailers, TR-05 Large-Cap Air Freight &amp; Logistics, TR-12 Large-Cap Trucking, and MF-31 Building Products and Fixtures.

The rotation out of stay-at-home/COVID-19 beneficiary stocks and into reopening/economically sensitive stocks that we highlighted last week has continued, leading us to make several upgrades and one downgrade (see first bullet below). This broadening-out of participation and several other bullish developments highlighted below tells us the bulls have the upper hand. In today’s report we highlight attractive Groups and stocks within Discretionary, Transportation, and Manufacturing: CD-05 Auto Parts Retailers, TR-05 Large-Cap Air Freight &amp; Logistics, TR-12 Large-Cap Trucking, and MF-31 Building Products and Fixtures.

U.S. Equity Strategy: Healthy Sector Rotations Continue

United States

Old Dominion Freight Line, Inc. is an inter-regional and multi-regional motor carrier.  The Company primarily transports less-than-truckload shipments of general commodities, such as consumer goods, textiles, and capital goods.  Old Dominion serves regional markets throughout the United States.

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Old Dominion Freight Line (ODFL US)

Mainfreight ASM to Confirm Strong Start to FY27

Mainfreight (MFT) is due to report a strong start to FY27 in an Annual Shareholders Meeting (ASM) trading update on Thursday, 30 July...

Forsyth Barr

Mainfreight (MFT.NZ) - K+N Q2 Read-Through

Kuehne & Nagel (KNIN.S), a key international peer for Mainfreight (MFT), reported a 2Q26 result overnight, modestly above market...

Forsyth Barr

U.S. Equity Strategy: All Eyes On The Small Cap Russell 2000. Buying Semiconductors, Solar, Truckers

The PHLX Semiconductor index (SOXX) and the equal-weighted Transportation Sector (XTN) are the latest cyclical areas to break out to new YTD...

Vermilion Research

Options Weekly: Bears Circle Banks, Bulls Chase Storage and Discretionary

Options markets flashed a split signal this week. European financials drew the most persistent put-buying of the period, while select US names saw...

ORTEX Market Intel

U.S. Equity Strategy: Healthy Sector Rotations Continue

The rotation out of stay-at-home/COVID-19 beneficiary stocks and into reopening/economically sensitive stocks that we highlighted last week has...

Vermilion Research

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