Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>This is my quarterly piece, where I round up all of my favorite ideas (more explicitly) and explain some semiconductor jargon. This is a meta piece of content.</li><li>First and foremost, I’ll start with performance. SMH returned 14% this quarter, among the best quarters in history for the semiconductor universe (again).</li><li>This quarter's leader was AOSL, who is rumored to have won a socket at Nvidia.</li></ul>

This is my quarterly piece, where I round up all of my favorite ideas (more explicitly) and explain some semiconductor jargon. This is a meta piece of content.First and foremost, I’ll start with performance. SMH returned 14% this quarter, among the best quarters in history for the semiconductor universe (again).This quarter's leader was AOSL, who is rumored to have won a socket at Nvidia.

Fabricated Knowledge Q2 2024 Quarterly Review

<ul><li>I will start with a AMD section. Shares are down ~6-7% on last week’s result. Let’s talk about the result and why it was so disappointing.</li><li>AMD exactly matched EPS, was slightly light on revenue, and guided essentially in line with Q2 guidance.</li><li>This also was one of the slightest EPS and revenue beats in recent years. The last time this happened, the PC segment was imploding. This time it’s embedded revenue.</li></ul>

I will start with a AMD section. Shares are down ~6-7% on last week’s result. Let’s talk about the result and why it was so disappointing.AMD exactly matched EPS, was slightly light on revenue, and guided essentially in line with Q2 guidance.This also was one of the slightest EPS and revenue beats in recent years. The last time this happened, the PC segment was imploding. This time it’s embedded revenue.

AMD's MI300 Disappointment, Hyperscalers Capex, and FPGAs

<ul><li>This earnings post will be a bit less detailed than usual. I just finished a move mid-earnings, and it was insanely distracting. So, I’ll start with the spark notes before I go into depth.</li><li>Industrial (TXN) is possibly bottoming, Automotive is probably bottoming (TXN), but SiC (STM) is doing much worse, and mobile (TER) hasn’t changed quite much. Consumer (NOD) got a substantial call out.</li><li>Telecom (MXL, INTC) is about to bottom imminently. I continue to like MaxLinear and other companies that are exposed to telecom. HBM (TER, SK) continues to be strong. In Semicap, Logic is strong, HBM is strong, and China is declining less than expected.</li></ul>

This earnings post will be a bit less detailed than usual. I just finished a move mid-earnings, and it was insanely distracting. So, I’ll start with the spark notes before I go into depth.Industrial (TXN) is possibly bottoming, Automotive is probably bottoming (TXN), but SiC (STM) is doing much worse, and mobile (TER) hasn’t changed quite much. Consumer (NOD) got a substantial call out.Telecom (MXL, INTC) is about to bottom imminently. I continue to like MaxLinear and other companies that are exposed to telecom. HBM (TER, SK) continues to be strong. In Semicap, Logic is strong, HBM is strong, and China is declining less than expected.

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

<ul><li>CIS market revenue was US$21.3bn in 2022, stagnated with 0.2% YoY decline, according to Yole.</li><li>The sales from mobile segment (US$13.5bn) remained flat. Auto CIS sales grew 13.7% YoY to US$2.2bn, surpassing Security CIS, which experienced significant decline (42.8% YoY) in the past year.</li><li>Domestic CIS players took a strong hit by 1) the weak mobile/security demand, 2) slower-thanexpected inventory digestion and 3) intensified competition among overseas and domestic peers. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

CIS market revenue was US$21.3bn in 2022, stagnated with 0.2% YoY decline, according to Yole.The sales from mobile segment (US$13.5bn) remained flat. Auto CIS sales grew 13.7% YoY to US$2.2bn, surpassing Security CIS, which experienced significant decline (42.8% YoY) in the past year.Domestic CIS players took a strong hit by 1) the weak mobile/security demand, 2) slower-thanexpected inventory digestion and 3) intensified competition among overseas and domestic peers. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Semi – China CIS sector – Solid auto CIS growth offset by weak mobile CIS demand

Global Commodities, Mint Finance

Srinidhi Raghavendra

Global Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

<ul>
<li>Inflation Reduction Act is by far the largest legislation to positively influence climate change and emissions control.</li>
<li>IRA is packed with subsidies, and loans totaling up to USD 369 billion over the next ten years on renewables, EVs, hydrogen hubs, carbon capture &amp; storage, among others.</li>
<li>By 2035, IRA will drive reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by up to 48% relative to 2005 emissions levels.</li>
</ul>


Inflation Reduction Act is by far the largest legislation to positively influence climate change and emissions control.
IRA is packed with subsidies, and loans totaling up to USD 369 billion over the next ten years on renewables, EVs, hydrogen hubs, carbon capture &amp; storage, among others.
By 2035, IRA will drive reduction of greenhouse gas emissions by up to 48% relative to 2005 emissions levels.


Many Aren’t Aware of the Inflation Reduction Act; and That’s Good News for Investors

United States

ON Semiconductor Corporation supplies analog, standard logic, and discrete semiconductors for data and power management. The Company's products include integrated circuits, and analog ICs. ON also offers discrete semiconductors in a variety of surface mount and standard packages.

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On Semiconductor (ON US)

Fabricated Knowledge Q2 2024 Quarterly Review

Here's everything that happened this quarter, and some thoughts and ideas. This is my quarterly piece, where I round up all of my favorite ideas...

Fabricated Knowledge

AMD's MI300 Disappointment, Hyperscalers Capex, and FPGAs

This is my earnings overview for the Hyperscalers, AMD, and thoughts specifically on FPGAs. I will start with a AMD section. Shares are down ~6-7%...

Fabricated Knowledge

Earnings Week of April 26th

TXN, NOD, TER, INTC, MXL, ASM, STM, ON, KLA, LRCX, VRT, Aixtron, MXL. This earnings post will be a bit less detailed than usual....

Fabricated Knowledge

Semi – China CIS sector – Solid auto CIS growth offset by weak mobile CIS demand

The sales from mobile segment (US$13.5bn) remained flat. Auto CIS sales grew 13.7% YoY to US$2.2bn, surpassing Security CIS, which experienced...

CMB International

Many Aren’t Aware of the Inflation Reduction Act; and That’s Good News for Investors

Two in three Americans know little about IRA. The Inflation Reduction Act (“IRA”) took years in the making and will have material implications...

Mint Finance

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