AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>OpenAI’s growth model relies on an intricate loop of vendor financing, aggressive forward contracts, and $80B+ in projected external capital.</li>
<li>Long-Dated chip commitments seem less about immediate infra demand and more about bolstering OpenAI’s fundraising optics by showcasing secured access to future capacity.</li>
<li>If credit tightens or execution slips, the weakest links—OEMs and private equity firms backing infra-hungry AI startups—may snap first, with cascading effects on Nvidia, AMD, and TSMC to follow.</li>
</ul>


OpenAI’s growth model relies on an intricate loop of vendor financing, aggressive forward contracts, and $80B+ in projected external capital.
Long-Dated chip commitments seem less about immediate infra demand and more about bolstering OpenAI’s fundraising optics by showcasing secured access to future capacity.
If credit tightens or execution slips, the weakest links—OEMs and private equity firms backing infra-hungry AI startups—may snap first, with cascading effects on Nvidia, AMD, and TSMC to follow.


OpenAI and Its House Built on GPUs, Debt, and Leveraged Demand

<ul>
<li>Token costs no longer drop meaningfully with scale, and inference remains a fixed, expensive burden.</li>
<li>Rather than delivering major performance gains, GPT-5 appears to be a cost-routing shell, underperforming in several benchmarks.</li>
<li>With $115B in projected losses and hardly any visible scale-based leverage, OpenAI's only path forward is monetisation.</li>
</ul>


Token costs no longer drop meaningfully with scale, and inference remains a fixed, expensive burden.
Rather than delivering major performance gains, GPT-5 appears to be a cost-routing shell, underperforming in several benchmarks.
With $115B in projected losses and hardly any visible scale-based leverage, OpenAI's only path forward is monetisation.


OpenAI’s Path to Profitability Is Blocked by a $115B Compute Burden

Independent in-depth research from Finimize, Finimize

Finimize Research

Independent in-depth research from Finimize

Finimize

Finimize is the #1 information platform for modern investors. We empower people to become smarter investors with bitesize insights from world-class analysts. 1 million+ strong community, 250 partners.

<ul>
<li>OpenAI is one of the fastest-growing private companies ever, with an estimated $10 billion annual revenue run rate by mid-2025 – up 82% from the year before. </li>
<li>Subscriptions and API fees have fueled OpenAI’s rocket-like trajectory, but they won’t get it to its ambitious goal of $174 billion in annual revenue by 2030. </li>
<li>Investors slapped a $300 billion price tag on the firm earlier this year, with $500 billion now being touted. What's it worth?</li>
</ul>


OpenAI is one of the fastest-growing private companies ever, with an estimated $10 billion annual revenue run rate by mid-2025 – up 82% from the year before. 
Subscriptions and API fees have fueled OpenAI’s rocket-like trajectory, but they won’t get it to its ambitious goal of $174 billion in annual revenue by 2030. 
Investors slapped a $300 billion price tag on the firm earlier this year, with $500 billion now being touted. What's it worth?


OpenAI, Wide Open: Why (And How) To Invest In The ChatGPT Maker

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

<ul>
<li>"It is so much cheaper to do simulations than real experiments, so much more flexible in testing...we can even do things which cannot be done in any lab… So it’s inevitable this trend will continue for some time." - Richard Hamming, <a href="https://www.amazon.com/Art-Doing-Science-Engineering-Learning/dp/1732265178" target="_blank" rel="noopener">The Art of Doing Science and Engineering</a>.</li>
<li>Richard Hamming said this to the President of Bell Labs in the 1950s. And I think this insight rings more accurate than ever. Simulations of reality are much more flexible and cheaper than observing and interacting with reality.</li>
<li>I will assert that LLMs and “AI” are effectively the logical conclusion of this trend. A large language model is trained on the largest amount of data possible, often the entire crawlable Internet<a href="https://kili-technology.com/large-language-models-llms/9-open-sourced-datasets-for-training-large-language-models" target="_blank" rel="noopener">, all the books ever written, and so much more</a>.</li>
</ul>


"It is so much cheaper to do simulations than real experiments, so much more flexible in testing...we can even do things which cannot be done in any lab… So it’s inevitable this trend will continue for some time." - Richard Hamming, The Art of Doing Science and Engineering.
Richard Hamming said this to the President of Bell Labs in the 1950s. And I think this insight rings more accurate than ever. Simulations of reality are much more flexible and cheaper than observing and interacting with reality.
I will assert that LLMs and “AI” are effectively the logical conclusion of this trend. A large language model is trained on the largest amount of data possible, often the entire crawlable Internet, all the books ever written, and so much more.


<ul><li>OpenAI was founded in 2015 by investors, including Elon Musk, Reid Hoffman, Peter Thiel, AWS, and YC Research.</li><li>The goal was to pursue Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) safely for the benefit of humanity.</li><li>There was an initial pledge of $1 billion, but the money that came in was $100 million from Elon Musk and $30 million from Open Philanthropy.</li></ul>

OpenAI was founded in 2015 by investors, including Elon Musk, Reid Hoffman, Peter Thiel, AWS, and YC Research.The goal was to pursue Artificial General Intelligence (AGI) safely for the benefit of humanity.There was an initial pledge of $1 billion, but the money that came in was $100 million from Elon Musk and $30 million from Open Philanthropy.

United States

OpenAI, L.P. operates as a software company. The Company specializes in AI research and deployment that aims to ensure that artificial general intelligence benefits all of humanity. OpenAI serves customers worldwide.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

OpenAI (2193707D US)

OpenAI and Its House Built on GPUs, Debt, and Leveraged Demand

OpenAI's growth model hinges on vendor financing, forward contracts, and projected external capital, with potential risks for OEMs and private...

Mint Finance

OpenAI’s Path to Profitability Is Blocked by a $115B Compute Burden

As GPT-5 gets an underwhelming reception, token costs for OpenAI remain high even at scale. The company is looking at $115B in projected losses...

Mint Finance

OpenAI, Wide Open: Why (And How) To Invest In The ChatGPT Maker

A $500 billion price tag for a company that lost $5 billion last year might sound bonkers, but the AI gold rush is all about grabbing land now,...

Finimize Research

Jensen's World: Compressing Reality

Nvidia is pursuing a strategy of broadening its software distribution on one of the largest installed bases in the world.

Fabricated Knowledge

OpenAI Boardroom Battle: Safety First

When Move Fast and Break Things Fail. The AI Safety Schism within OpenAI. OpenAI was founded in 2015 by investors, including Elon Musk, Reid...

Fabricated Knowledge

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

OpenAI and Its House Built on GPUs, Debt, and Leveraged Demand

​OpenAI's growth model hinges on vendor financing, forward contracts, and projected external capital, with potential risks for OEMs and private...

Mint Finance

OpenAI’s Path to Profitability Is Blocked by a $115B Compute Burden

​As GPT-5 gets an underwhelming reception, token costs for OpenAI remain high even at scale. The company is looking at $115B in projected losses...

Mint Finance

OpenAI, Wide Open: Why (And How) To Invest In The ChatGPT Maker

A $500 billion price tag for a company that lost $5 billion last year might sound bonkers, but the AI gold rush is all about grabbing land now,...

Finimize Research

Jensen's World: Compressing Reality

Nvidia is pursuing a strategy of broadening its software distribution on one of the largest installed bases in the world.

Fabricated Knowledge

OpenAI Boardroom Battle: Safety First

When Move Fast and Break Things Fail. The AI Safety Schism within OpenAI. OpenAI was founded in 2015 by investors, including Elon Musk, Reid...

Fabricated Knowledge

OpenAI's growth model hinges on vendor financing, forward contracts, and projected external capital, with potential risks for OEMs and private...

As GPT-5 gets an underwhelming reception, token costs for OpenAI remain high even at scale. The company is looking at $115B in projected losses...