Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Microsoft has significantly course corrected on their compute capacity build out, demurred on their right of first refusal for OpenAI compute demand and adopted a risk off "fungible" compute strategy</li>
<li>Mr. Nadella thinks AGI as more hype than substance, "jagged" intelligence will remain problematic for a longer, and the true measure of AI success will be measured by GDP growth</li>
<li>Microsoft stopped reporting AI-driven ARR when the number hit $13 billion six months ago, but why? Broadly deploying AI into productivity tools is a marathon not a sprint.</li>
</ul>


Microsoft has significantly course corrected on their compute capacity build out, demurred on their right of first refusal for OpenAI compute demand and adopted a risk off "fungible" compute strategy
Mr. Nadella thinks AGI as more hype than substance, "jagged" intelligence will remain problematic for a longer, and the true measure of AI success will be measured by GDP growth
Microsoft stopped reporting AI-driven ARR when the number hit $13 billion six months ago, but why? Broadly deploying AI into productivity tools is a marathon not a sprint.


Microsoft. Acting Like There's An AI Bubble Without Saying There's An AI Bubble

Writing about Companies with an Unfair Advantage, Unfair Advantage

Unfair Advantage

Writing about Companies with an Unfair Advantage

I write about companies that have an unfair advantage. I might invest in them as well.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Much has been written these days on the bloating AI capex spends across the tech majors.</li><li>A JP Morgan report said we need to create a stratospheric revenue number of $650B to justify a 10% IRR, given current AI capex levels.</li><li>Yet everyone agrees AI is a fundamental shift that is redefining business models across industries.</li></ul>

Much has been written these days on the bloating AI capex spends across the tech majors.A JP Morgan report said we need to create a stratospheric revenue number of $650B to justify a 10% IRR, given current AI capex levels.Yet everyone agrees AI is a fundamental shift that is redefining business models across industries.

<ul>
<li>Fresh on the heels of his podcast meltdown, Mr. Altman has had to scramble to walk back his CFO's assertion that a potential federal bailout was on her agenda.</li>
<li>One of Mr. Altman's revenue generating ideas is to lease AI compute directly to others. Of course, that's compute capacity he can't afford to purchase in the first place. </li>
<li>Mr. Altman wants OpenAI to be all things to all people all at once. That's a strategy that rarely ends well. Let's see..</li>
</ul>


Fresh on the heels of his podcast meltdown, Mr. Altman has had to scramble to walk back his CFO's assertion that a potential federal bailout was on her agenda.
One of Mr. Altman's revenue generating ideas is to lease AI compute directly to others. Of course, that's compute capacity he can't afford to purchase in the first place. 
Mr. Altman wants OpenAI to be all things to all people all at once. That's a strategy that rarely ends well. Let's see..


OpenAI. Is The Narrative Slowly Disintegrating ?

Tracking developments across tech supply chains, Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

Tracking developments across tech supply chains

<ul><li>By Q4 2025, Taiwan's wafer foundry industry will see advancements, driven by Foxconn's partnership with OpenAI.</li><li>Anthropic is targeting profitability by 2028, while OpenAI could incur losses of up to $74 billion in the same timeframe.</li><li>Toyota plans significant US expansion in the automotive sector, while Samsung Display starts mass production of OLEDoS displays.</li></ul>

By Q4 2025, Taiwan's wafer foundry industry will see advancements, driven by Foxconn's partnership with OpenAI.Anthropic is targeting profitability by 2028, while OpenAI could incur losses of up to $74 billion in the same timeframe.Toyota plans significant US expansion in the automotive sector, while Samsung Display starts mass production of OLEDoS displays.

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (14-Nov-2025): Taiwan wafer foundry outlook for Q4 2025.

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Advanced Micro Devices / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>AMD achieved unprecedented revenue of $9.2 billion in Q3 2025, a 36% YoY growth driven despite margin contraction in the data centre segment.</li>
<li>Despite record data centre revenue of $4.3 billion, the uplift was carried by fifth-gen EPYC server CPUs rather than Instinct GPUs.</li>
<li>Multi-Year GPU commitments (from OpenAI to Oracle) strengthen the AI narrative without near-term numbers; Q4 guidance implies just 4% sequential growth, underscoring a digestion phase before the MI400 ramp.</li>
</ul>


AMD achieved unprecedented revenue of $9.2 billion in Q3 2025, a 36% YoY growth driven despite margin contraction in the data centre segment.
Despite record data centre revenue of $4.3 billion, the uplift was carried by fifth-gen EPYC server CPUs rather than Instinct GPUs.
Multi-Year GPU commitments (from OpenAI to Oracle) strengthen the AI narrative without near-term numbers; Q4 guidance implies just 4% sequential growth, underscoring a digestion phase before the MI400 ramp.


AMD in Q3 2025: Conviction in Bold Moves but a Rocky Road to Success

United States

OpenAI, L.P. operates as a software company. The Company specializes in AI research and deployment that aims to ensure that artificial general intelligence benefits all of humanity. OpenAI serves customers worldwide.

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OpenAI (2193707D US)

Microsoft. Acting Like There's An AI Bubble Without Saying There's An AI Bubble

It could just be me, but I think Mr. Nadella is trying to tell us something about the state of AI. We should probably listen. Let’s see.

William Keating

Investor's guide to AI Capex

Much has been written these days on the bloating AI capex spends across the tech majors. A JP Morgan report said we need to create a stratospheric...

Unfair Advantage

OpenAI. Is The Narrative Slowly Disintegrating ?

Mr. Altman wants OpenAI to be all things to all people all at once. That's a strategy that rarely ends well. Let's see..

William Keating

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (14-Nov-2025): Taiwan wafer foundry outlook for Q4 2025.

By Q4 2025, Taiwan's wafer foundry industry will advance with Foxconn and OpenAI's collaboration, while Anthropic targets profitability by 2028...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

AMD in Q3 2025: Conviction in Bold Moves but a Rocky Road to Success

AMD's Q3 2025 revenue hits $9.2 billion with 36% YoY growth, driven by EPYC CPUs over Instinct GPUs; Q4 guidance suggests 4% sequential growth as...

Mint Finance

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Microsoft. Acting Like There's An AI Bubble Without Saying There's An AI Bubble

It could just be me, but I think Mr. Nadella is trying to tell us something about the state of AI. We should probably listen. Let’s see.

William Keating

Investor's guide to AI Capex

Much has been written these days on the bloating AI capex spends across the tech majors. A JP Morgan report said we need to create a stratospheric...

Unfair Advantage

OpenAI. Is The Narrative Slowly Disintegrating ?

Mr. Altman wants OpenAI to be all things to all people all at once. That's a strategy that rarely ends well. Let's see..

William Keating

Tech Supply Chain Tracker (14-Nov-2025): Taiwan wafer foundry outlook for Q4 2025.

By Q4 2025, Taiwan's wafer foundry industry will advance with Foxconn and OpenAI's collaboration, while Anthropic targets profitability by 2028...

Tech Supply Chain Tracker

AMD in Q3 2025: Conviction in Bold Moves but a Rocky Road to Success

​AMD's Q3 2025 revenue hits $9.2 billion with 36% YoY growth, driven by EPYC CPUs over Instinct GPUs; Q4 guidance suggests 4% sequential growth as...

Mint Finance

AMD's Q3 2025 revenue hits $9.2 billion with 36% YoY growth, driven by EPYC CPUs over Instinct GPUs; Q4 guidance suggests 4% sequential growth as...