Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors, Fabricated Knowledge

Douglas O'Laughlin

Equity Long-Short, Semiconductors

Fabricated Knowledge

Learn more about the world's most important manufactured product. Meaningful insight, timely analysis, and an occasional investment idea.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>If you pay attention, the Internet has been a bit different lately. Many of the attributes and ways we once interacted with the internet is changing.</li><li>I probably noticed it the most when one of my favorite websites, subredditstats.com showed me this image the other day.</li><li>Reddit’s free API is closing. But so is X (formerly Twitter), and other properties all around the internet are slowly adding limits and closing their doors.</li></ul>

If you pay attention, the Internet has been a bit different lately. Many of the attributes and ways we once interacted with the internet is changing.I probably noticed it the most when one of my favorite websites, subredditstats.com showed me this image the other day.Reddit’s free API is closing. But so is X (formerly Twitter), and other properties all around the internet are slowly adding limits and closing their doors.

<ul>
<li>What inning is AI in?</li>
<li>If <a href="https://www.fabricatedknowledge.com/p/lessons-from-history-the-rise-and" target="_blank" rel="noopener">history is a guide</a>, it’s hard to predict the twists and turns of a new market growing from nothing.</li>
<li>Here’s my humble attempt at estimating AI penetration and my thoughts on the run-rate business of AI models and industry structure.</li>
</ul>


What inning is AI in?
If history is a guide, it’s hard to predict the twists and turns of a new market growing from nothing.
Here’s my humble attempt at estimating AI penetration and my thoughts on the run-rate business of AI models and industry structure.


AI Industry Structure and Business Model: What Inning is It?

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist, Ingenuity

William Keating

Semiconductor & Technology Specialist

Ingenuity

Our focus is exclusively on in-depth research & consulting in the broader semiconductor industry. We focus on the key players, namely Intel, Micron, Qualcomm, Apple, Samsung, NVIDIA, AMD, TSMC & Global Foundries - as well as some of the lesser known, but nonetheless critical, companies such as ASML (for EUV), Mellanox, Cavium, Xilinx etc. We specialise in their products, roadmaps, process technologies, competitive advantages & threats etc. We also help our clients understand the implications of new and emerging technologies, e.g. 3D X-Point, 3D NAND, Carbon Nanotubes, Autonomous Driving, Graphene, Silicon Photonics, Wafer-Level Optics, Artificial Intelligence, FPGA, GPU, ASIC etc. 

Semiconductor Analysis & Research

<ul>
<li>Cloud 2025 CapEx consensus increased 70% from January 2024 to the present day $365 billion</li>
<li>Google page views declined 8% since the launch of ChatGPT</li>
<li>Apart from the Mag7, Coatue is heavily focusing investment on companies involved in AI-required power delivery, AI software and AI semiconductors </li>
</ul>


Cloud 2025 CapEx consensus increased 70% from January 2024 to the present day $365 billion
Google page views declined 8% since the launch of ChatGPT
Apart from the Mag7, Coatue is heavily focusing investment on companies involved in AI-required power delivery, AI software and AI semiconductors 


Coatue Doubles Down On An AI Supercycle @ EMW 2025

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors, The Circuit

The Circuit

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors

A Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors. With Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin

<ul><li>Nvidia surpassed expectations in China despite challenges, indicating growth in other areas of their business</li><li>Shift from training to inference era highlighted, with focus on customers buying Nvidia systems for inference</li><li>Competition in the inference market could pose challenges for Nvidia, especially as costs grow and alternatives emerge like Google's tpu</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Nvidia surpassed expectations in China despite challenges, indicating growth in other areas of their businessShift from training to inference era highlighted, with focus on customers buying Nvidia systems for inferenceCompetition in the inference market could pose challenges for Nvidia, especially as costs grow and alternatives emerge like Google's tpuThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Episode 120: NVIDIA Earnings, The Future of AI inference, China AI and more

HarmoniQ Insights

William Mann

Independent Insight Provider

At HarmoniQ Insights, we empower investors to enhance their investment strategies by integrating cutting-edge quantitative research processes and technologies. Our solutions provide access to leading quantitative data providers and services, tailored to align with each client’s unique goals. By bridging the gap between traditional investment approaches and advanced data-driven methods, we help clients gain a competitive edge through innovation in both process and technology.

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A fascinating lunch discussion with LLM engineer sparked an investigation into how AI models process information through vector spaces - revealing parallel but mechanistically different biases compared to human analysts </li>
<li>Built comprehensive framework mapping traditional financial biases against their LLM counterparts - showing how things like confirmation bias manifest differently (emotional investment vs statistical pattern reinforcement)</li>
<li>Result: Effective quant research requires understanding both human AND machine biases - can't just apply traditional risk controls to LLMs. Need tailored mitigations for how biases uniquely manifest in #AI.  </li>
</ul>


A fascinating lunch discussion with LLM engineer sparked an investigation into how AI models process information through vector spaces - revealing parallel but mechanistically different biases compared to human analysts 
Built comprehensive framework mapping traditional financial biases against their LLM counterparts - showing how things like confirmation bias manifest differently (emotional investment vs statistical pattern reinforcement)
Result: Effective quant research requires understanding both human AND machine biases - can't just apply traditional risk controls to LLMs. Need tailored mitigations for how biases uniquely manifest in #AI.  


Understanding LLM Biases in Quantitative Research: From Lunch Conversation to Framework

United States

OpenAI, L.P. operates as a software company. The Company specializes in AI research and deployment that aims to ensure that artificial general intelligence benefits all of humanity. OpenAI serves customers worldwide.

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OpenAI (2193707D US)

The Internet as You Know It Is Dying

Humans are not alone on the internet anymore. That will change the Internet as you know it. If you pay attention, the Internet has been a bit...

Fabricated Knowledge

AI Industry Structure and Business Model: What Inning is It?

What inning is AI in? If history is a guide, it’s hard to predict the twists and turns of a new market growing from nothing...

Fabricated Knowledge

Coatue Doubles Down On An AI Supercycle @ EMW 2025

Apart from the Mag7, Coatue is heavily focusing investment on companies involved in AI-required power delivery, AI software and AI semiconductors

William Keating

Episode 120: NVIDIA Earnings, The Future of AI inference, China AI and more

Overall, Nvidia is experiencing strong performance in the AI market, particularly in the area of inference, but faces competition and challenges in...

The Circuit

Understanding LLM Biases in Quantitative Research: From Lunch Conversation to Framework

We are going to provide a full-blown update on LLMs through Q1 2025. In the meantime, we are still finding issues with 🤖 “Hallucinating on Drugs” –...

William Mann

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