Market & Forensics Analyst, Beat the Street

Nimish Maheshwari

Market & Forensics Analyst

Beat the Street

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Their analysis on Bankrupt & Insolvent companies has been instrumental in saving investors from significant losses. They have a keen eye for identifying red flags and has identified exclusive redflags earlier in Vedanta, Nykaa, Dhani Services, Adani and many more.

Read Business Not Stock Prices

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In Oct-24, Ambuja Cements (ACEM IN) acquired 46.8% stake in Orient Cement (ORCMNT IN) at Rs. 396 per share.</li>
<li>Now Orient cement is trading at 20% discount to open offer price.</li>
<li>This process can take approx. 2 months and can generate ~10-15% risk adjusted return by Jan-25.</li>
</ul>


In Oct-24, Ambuja Cements (ACEM IN) acquired 46.8% stake in Orient Cement (ORCMNT IN) at Rs. 396 per share.
Now Orient cement is trading at 20% discount to open offer price.
This process can take approx. 2 months and can generate ~10-15% risk adjusted return by Jan-25.


Event Driven: Arbitrage Opportunity in Orient Cement Open Offer by Ambuja

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), Axis Direct

Axis Direct

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Axis Direct is the flagship brand under Axis Securities Limited, a subsidiary of Axis Bank in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Ambuja Cements’ Acquisition of Stake in Orient Cement Limited: On October 22, 2024, Ambuja Cements, part of the Adani Group, announced its acquisition of a 46.8% stake in Orient Cement Limited (OCL) for Rs 8,100 Cr at Rs 395 per share.</li><li>As part of this transaction, Ambuja will make an open offer to OCL’s public shareholders for an additional 26% stake.</li><li>On November 6, 2024, Ambuja Cements extended an open offer to acquire 5.34 Cr shares at Rs 395.40/share, amounting to Rs 2,112 Cr, for eligible shareholders of Orient Cement Limited by the SEBI (Substantial Acquisition of Shares and Takeovers) Regulations, 2011.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Ambuja Cements’ Acquisition of Stake in Orient Cement Limited: On October 22, 2024, Ambuja Cements, part of the Adani Group, announced its acquisition of a 46.8% stake in Orient Cement Limited (OCL) for Rs 8,100 Cr at Rs 395 per share.As part of this transaction, Ambuja will make an open offer to OCL’s public shareholders for an additional 26% stake.On November 6, 2024, Ambuja Cements extended an open offer to acquire 5.34 Cr shares at Rs 395.40/share, amounting to Rs 2,112 Cr, for eligible shareholders of Orient Cement Limited by the SEBI (Substantial Acquisition of Shares and Takeovers) Regulations, 2011.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Orient Cement Limited - Lackluster Operating Performance

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), HDFC Securities

HDFC Securities

HDFC securities is the best online trading platform for stocks, IPOs, mutual fund in India. 

Content available is external broker reports authored by a third party outside the Smartkarma network and has been aggregated by an online aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed by Smartkarma in this format for user's convenience and general informational purposes only. Content does not constitute investment or financial advice and Smartkarma makes no representation or warranty regarding its accuracy or contents. Original third party author retains all copyright and other proprietary rights in the content. Access or use of third party links not controlled by Smartkarma are at the user's own risk.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Demand fails to pick up in Q2FY25: The slowdown in construction activities during Q1FY25 (general elections, heat waves) continued in Q2FY25 due to demand sluggishness (elections impact and heavy rains all around)</li><li>At the industry level, we estimate demand contracted by 2% YoY in Q2FY25, as against ~4% YoY growth in Q1FY25</li><li>We estimate the aggregate volumes of our coverage universe will decline 1% YoY in Q2, implying a 14% QoQ volume decline</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Demand fails to pick up in Q2FY25: The slowdown in construction activities during Q1FY25 (general elections, heat waves) continued in Q2FY25 due to demand sluggishness (elections impact and heavy rains all around)At the industry level, we estimate demand contracted by 2% YoY in Q2FY25, as against ~4% YoY growth in Q1FY25We estimate the aggregate volumes of our coverage universe will decline 1% YoY in Q2, implying a 14% QoQ volume declineContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Cement (Q2FY25 Results Preview): Demand Contracts and Pricing Slip Further in Q2

<ul><li>ONGC: We maintain our REDUCE rating on ONGC, with a target price of INR 286, given: (1) limited upside potential for ONGC’s crude price realisation in the current environment with a levy of windfall tax, (2) gas price realisation too unlikely to change significantly, as APM gas price is frozen until March 2025 and 95% of ONGC’s gas sales fall under APM and (3) slower ramp-up in oil &amp; gas production</li><li>In Q1FY25, reported EBITDA stood at INR 186bn (-4% YoY, +7% QoQ), coming in above our estimate owing to lower-than-expected statutory levies</li><li>PAT at INR 89bn (-11% YoY, -9% QoQ) was below our estimate, mainly driven by higher-than-expected depreciation and depletion costs</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

ONGC: We maintain our REDUCE rating on ONGC, with a target price of INR 286, given: (1) limited upside potential for ONGC’s crude price realisation in the current environment with a levy of windfall tax, (2) gas price realisation too unlikely to change significantly, as APM gas price is frozen until March 2025 and 95% of ONGC’s gas sales fall under APM and (3) slower ramp-up in oil &amp; gas productionIn Q1FY25, reported EBITDA stood at INR 186bn (-4% YoY, +7% QoQ), coming in above our estimate owing to lower-than-expected statutory leviesPAT at INR 89bn (-11% YoY, -9% QoQ) was below our estimate, mainly driven by higher-than-expected depreciation and depletion costsContent is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

HSIE Results Daily: ONGC, TVS Motor, NCC, Bajaj Electricals, Symphony

<ul><li>The company’s capacity expansion at its Chitapur plant in Karnataka (3 mtpa Clinker and 3 mtpa Grinding unit) is awaiting environmental clearance, with work expected to start by Q3FY25.</li><li>The plant is anticipated to be commissioned in the next 15- 18 months.</li><li>Additionally, the expansion at the Devapur plant is delayed due to pending forest clearance from the relevant authorities.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The company’s capacity expansion at its Chitapur plant in Karnataka (3 mtpa Clinker and 3 mtpa Grinding unit) is awaiting environmental clearance, with work expected to start by Q3FY25.The plant is anticipated to be commissioned in the next 15- 18 months.Additionally, the expansion at the Devapur plant is delayed due to pending forest clearance from the relevant authorities.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Orient Cement Limited - Capacity Expansion Delayed; Downgrade To SELL

India

Orient Cement Limited manufactures and distributes cement.

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Orient Cement (ORCMNT IN)

Event Driven: Arbitrage Opportunity in Orient Cement Open Offer by Ambuja

Ambuja Cements acquired stake in Orient Cement at Rs. 396 per share, now trading at 20% discount, potential for 10-15% return by Jan-25.

Nimish Maheshwari

Orient Cement Limited - Lackluster Operating Performance

On October 22, 2024, Ambuja Cements, part of the Adani Group, announced its acquisition of a 46.8% stake in Orient Cement Limited (OCL) for Rs...

Axis Direct

Cement (Q2FY25 Results Preview): Demand Contracts and Pricing Slip Further in Q2

Demand fails to pick up in Q2FY25: The slowdown in construction activities during Q1FY25 (general elections, heat waves) continued in Q2FY25 due to...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: ONGC, TVS Motor, NCC, Bajaj Electricals, Symphony

We maintain our REDUCE rating on ONGC, with a target price of INR 286, given: (1) limited upside potential for ONGC’s crude price realisation in...

HDFC Securities

Orient Cement Limited - Capacity Expansion Delayed; Downgrade To SELL

The company’s capacity expansion at its Chitapur plant in Karnataka (3 mtpa Clinker and 3 mtpa Grinding unit) is awaiting environmental clearance,...

Axis Direct

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Event Driven: Arbitrage Opportunity in Orient Cement Open Offer by Ambuja

​Ambuja Cements acquired stake in Orient Cement at Rs. 396 per share, now trading at 20% discount, potential for 10-15% return by Jan-25.

Nimish Maheshwari

Orient Cement Limited - Lackluster Operating Performance

On October 22, 2024, Ambuja Cements, part of the Adani Group, announced its acquisition of a 46.8% stake in Orient Cement Limited (OCL) for Rs...

Axis Direct

Cement (Q2FY25 Results Preview): Demand Contracts and Pricing Slip Further in Q2

Demand fails to pick up in Q2FY25: The slowdown in construction activities during Q1FY25 (general elections, heat waves) continued in Q2FY25 due to...

HDFC Securities

HSIE Results Daily: ONGC, TVS Motor, NCC, Bajaj Electricals, Symphony

We maintain our REDUCE rating on ONGC, with a target price of INR 286, given: (1) limited upside potential for ONGC’s crude price realisation in...

HDFC Securities

Orient Cement Limited - Capacity Expansion Delayed; Downgrade To SELL

The company’s capacity expansion at its Chitapur plant in Karnataka (3 mtpa Clinker and 3 mtpa Grinding unit) is awaiting environmental clearance,...

Axis Direct

Ambuja Cements acquired stake in Orient Cement at Rs. 396 per share, now trading at 20% discount, potential for 10-15% return by Jan-25.