Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In Oct2023, activist Palliser Capital launched a <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20231017540912/en/Palliser-Capital-Responds-to-Media-Article-Regarding-Investment-in-Keisei-Electric-Railway" target="_blank" rel="noopener">campaign</a> on well-known "stub trade" <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> (1.6% stake). The proposal? Monetise OLC, invest for growth, be shareholder friendly.</li>
<li>Keisei responded 3+mos ago: buyback and 1% OLC stake sale but said OLC would remain an equity affiliate. Palliser re-engaged in late April (<a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240423026545/ja/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Japanese</a>/<a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240423405941/en/Palliser-Capital-Proposes-Advisory-Resolution-to-Give-Shareholders-a-Voice-at-Keisei%E2%80%99s-Forthcoming-AGM" target="_blank" rel="noopener">English</a> and <a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240429699717/ja/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">two AGM agenda items</a>). Keisei objected.</li>
<li>Palliser <a href="https://mms.businesswire.com/media/20240603986107/en/2149734/1/Attachment_Keisei_Electric_Railway_%E2%80%93_Palliser%E2%80%99s_AGM_Proposal.pdf?download=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">made their case</a>, Glass Lewis and ISS support Palliser. Palliser likely cannot win. The goal here isn't to win though. It is to get enough to raise management consciousness. </li>
</ul>


In Oct2023, activist Palliser Capital launched a campaign on well-known "stub trade" Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) (1.6% stake). The proposal? Monetise OLC, invest for growth, be shareholder friendly.
Keisei responded 3+mos ago: buyback and 1% OLC stake sale but said OLC would remain an equity affiliate. Palliser re-engaged in late April (Japanese/English and two AGM agenda items). Keisei objected.
Palliser made their case, Glass Lewis and ISS support Palliser. Palliser likely cannot win. The goal here isn't to win though. It is to get enough to raise management consciousness. 


[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Palliser Gets ISS/GL Nods for Keisei AGM Proposals - How Will The Swing Vote Swing?

David Blennerhassett

<ul>
<li>The Palliser/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> is an unconvincing trade. Avoid being long Keisei vs <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> except in short-term impact events. Avoid the drift trade also.</li>
<li>On the subject of activism, keep an eye on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-merchants-china-direct-investments" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6862:1" rel="noopener">China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK)</a>'s 20th June AGM. If Kan's re-election is rejected, this stock should gain more momentum.</li>
<li>A <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sigma-healthcare-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15966:1" rel="noopener">Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)</a>/Chemist Warehouse merger carried regulatory risk. And now the ACCC has raised a raft of concerns. </li>
</ul>


The Palliser/Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) is an unconvincing trade. Avoid being long Keisei vs Oriental Land (4661 JP) except in short-term impact events. Avoid the drift trade also.
On the subject of activism, keep an eye on China Merchants China Direct Investments (133 HK)'s 20th June AGM. If Kan's re-election is rejected, this stock should gain more momentum.
A Sigma Healthcare (SIG AU)/Chemist Warehouse merger carried regulatory risk. And now the ACCC has raised a raft of concerns. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, CMCDI, Sigma Healthcare, Sun Corp, Segantii

<ul>
<li>Last October, activist Palliser Capital launched a campaign (<a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20231017540912/en/Palliser-Capital-Responds-to-Media-Article-Regarding-Investment-in-Keisei-Electric-Railway" target="_blank" rel="noopener">presentation</a>) on well-known "stub trade" <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a> with a stake of about 1.6%. </li>
<li>The proposal? Monetise a decent stake in Oriental Land (4661 JP), repurchase shares, and invest for growth. Keisei responded 6-8 weeks ago with a buyback and 1% OLC stake sale.</li>
<li>I thought that was time to bail. That was it. But now, Palliser has re-engaged. Today a press release (<a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240423026545/ja/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Japanese</a>/<a href="https://www.businesswire.com/news/home/20240423405941/en/Palliser-Capital-Proposes-Advisory-Resolution-to-Give-Shareholders-a-Voice-at-Keisei%E2%80%99s-Forthcoming-AGM" target="_blank" rel="noopener">English</a>) and a <a href="https://mms.businesswire.com/media/20240423405941/en/2107923/1/53951785_PALLISER_CAPITAL_20240424_Letter_to_Keisei_English_2.pdf?download=1" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Letter to the Board</a>.</li>
</ul>


Last October, activist Palliser Capital launched a campaign (presentation) on well-known "stub trade" Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP) with a stake of about 1.6%. 
The proposal? Monetise a decent stake in Oriental Land (4661 JP), repurchase shares, and invest for growth. Keisei responded 6-8 weeks ago with a buyback and 1% OLC stake sale.
I thought that was time to bail. That was it. But now, Palliser has re-engaged. Today a press release (Japanese/English) and a Letter to the Board.


Activist Palliser Re-Engages on Keisei Electric (9009) But The Oppty Remains Unconvincing

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We summarize our gleanings from the conference call with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dream-international-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15783:1" rel="noopener">Dream International (1126 HK)</a> to better understand growth opportunities and future expansion plans.</li>
<li>The company is expanding in Indonesia to increase its capacity by 30 million USD ( over 830 million USD). (capacity utilization for FY23:83%).</li>
<li>Trading at 4x FY24e PE, with an 11.4% dividend yield and a 15-year average ROE of 20%, this is a stock worth exploring. </li>
</ul>


We summarize our gleanings from the conference call with Dream International (1126 HK) to better understand growth opportunities and future expansion plans.
The company is expanding in Indonesia to increase its capacity by 30 million USD ( over 830 million USD). (capacity utilization for FY23:83%).
Trading at 4x FY24e PE, with an 11.4% dividend yield and a 15-year average ROE of 20%, this is a stock worth exploring. 


Dream International (1126 HK)  Management Concall: 4x PE,11.4% Div Yield,40% of Mkt Cap in Cash

<ul>
<li>In mid-January, the TSE announced a "name-and-shame" list where they listed all the companies which had put forth a disclosure about 【資本コストや株価を意識した経営の実現に向けた対応】. But they did not actually shame.</li>
<li>The list shows which companies have disclosed a policy/consideration. But no data/links. We are weeks ahead of the TSE and we have all the links.</li>
<li>We created a tool to name everyone, show their reports, provide links to every document, and now a new tool. Put in a name, see the difference between the Old/New Reports.</li>
</ul>


In mid-January, the TSE announced a "name-and-shame" list where they listed all the companies which had put forth a disclosure about 【資本コストや株価を意識した経営の実現に向けた対応】. But they did not actually shame.
The list shows which companies have disclosed a policy/consideration. But no data/links. We are weeks ahead of the TSE and we have all the links.
We created a tool to name everyone, show their reports, provide links to every document, and now a new tool. Put in a name, see the difference between the Old/New Reports.


Updated Tool (30Apr24) & "Diff File Generator" For TSE "Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price"

Japan

ORIENTAL LAND CO., LTD. operates Tokyo Disney Resort.  The Company also operates restaurants within the complex and sells Disney merchandise.

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Oriental Land (4661 JP)

[JAPAN ACTIVISM] Palliser Gets ISS/GL Nods for Keisei AGM Proposals - How Will The Swing Vote Swing?

Keisei's AGM is 27 June. After I wrote this, Keisei responded to GL and ISS saying "they don't understand" and misrepresented Palliser's case....

Travis Lundy

Last Week in Event SPACE: Keisei Electric, CMCDI, Sigma Healthcare, Sun Corp, Segantii

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Activist Palliser Re-Engages on Keisei Electric (9009) But The Oppty Remains Unconvincing

Since I wrote this piece, Keisei vs OLC is down small. Since I wrote the previous one, it is down more. I think there is room to go, but...

Travis Lundy

Dream International (1126 HK) Management Concall: 4x PE,11.4% Div Yield,40% of Mkt Cap in Cash

We summarize our gleanings from a concall with the mgmt of Dream International (1126 HK) recently. It trades at mouth watering 3.9x FY23 PE and a...

Sameer Taneja

Updated Tool (30Apr24) & "Diff File Generator" For TSE "Mgmt Conscious of Capital Cost/Stock Price"

The TSE request for "Management Conscious of Stock Price and Cost of Capital" announcements mid-month just show a list of who did. No links. No way...

Travis Lundy

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