Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Big picture: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:359:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post (6178 JP)</a> selling 29% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-post-bank-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:838:1" rel="noopener">Japan Post Bank (7182 JP)</a> is a Very Big Offering at ¥1.236trln. 80/20 dom/international. A TOUGH sell. 1.089bn shares is 4x float. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/downer-edi-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12350:1" rel="noopener">Downer EDI (DOW AU)</a>'s CEO resigned ahead of announcing accounting irregularities last December. The CFO resigned this week after Downer announced another profit downgrade. Now the chairman is exiting. </li>
<li>Hong Kong broadband play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hkbn-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:289:1" rel="noopener">HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)</a>said it has been approached by I Squares' HGC. No pricing announced, but talks continue. </li>
</ul>


Big picture: Japan Post (6178 JP) selling 29% of Japan Post Bank (7182 JP) is a Very Big Offering at ¥1.236trln. 80/20 dom/international. A TOUGH sell. 1.089bn shares is 4x float. 

Downer EDI (DOW AU)'s CEO resigned ahead of announcing accounting irregularities last December. The CFO resigned this week after Downer announced another profit downgrade. Now the chairman is exiting. 
Hong Kong broadband play HKBN Ltd (1310 HK)said it has been approached by I Squares' HGC. No pricing announced, but talks continue. 


Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post/Japan Post Bank, Downer, HKBN, Golden Energy

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>The March 2023 Nikkei 225 Review was announced Friday. Discussion is in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/nikkei-225-march-2023-review-olc-jal-renesas-in" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:97041" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 March 2023 Review - OLC, JAL, Renesas IN.</a> </li>
<li>That means a Sep-2023 preview. ADDs: Lasertec (6920), Toshiba (6502), and Nitori (9843). DELETEs: Nippon Sheet Glass (5202), Mitsui E&amp;S (7003), and Matsui Securities (8628).</li>
<li>Zozo (3092) is a possible alternate add to Toshiba on a sector balance basis if Toshiba's disposition changes in the interim.</li>
</ul>


The March 2023 Nikkei 225 Review was announced Friday. Discussion is in Nikkei 225 March 2023 Review - OLC, JAL, Renesas IN. 
That means a Sep-2023 preview. ADDs: Lasertec (6920), Toshiba (6502), and Nitori (9843). DELETEs: Nippon Sheet Glass (5202), Mitsui E&amp;S (7003), and Matsui Securities (8628).
Zozo (3092) is a possible alternate add to Toshiba on a sector balance basis if Toshiba's disposition changes in the interim.


Nikkei 225 Sep 2023 PREVIEW - Lasertec, Toshiba, Nitori, Maybe Zozo

<ul>
<li>As expected, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1184:1" rel="noopener">Japan Airlines (9201 JP)</a> IN, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyobo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6187:1" rel="noopener">Toyobo (3101 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-light-metal-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1485:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Light Metal (5703 JP)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toho-zinc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2796:1" rel="noopener">Toho Zinc (5707 JP)</a> OUT.</li>
<li>The Nikkei implemented the "Tricky Twist" discussed. This lowers the total amount to buy on Oriental Land vs what many would have expected.</li>
<li>That's "disappointing" BUT... the behavioural aspects here are really interesting, and the timetable for the event is worth thinking about. </li>
</ul>


As expected, Oriental Land (4661 JP), Renesas Electronics (6723 JP), Japan Airlines (9201 JP) IN, and Toyobo (3101 JP), Nippon Light Metal (5703 JP), Toho Zinc (5707 JP) OUT.
The Nikkei implemented the "Tricky Twist" discussed. This lowers the total amount to buy on Oriental Land vs what many would have expected.
That's "disappointing" BUT... the behavioural aspects here are really interesting, and the timetable for the event is worth thinking about. 


Nikkei 225 March 2023 Review - OLC, JAL, Renesas IN.

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renesas-electronics-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15933:1" rel="noopener">Renesas Electronics (6723)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/japan-airlines-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1184:1" rel="noopener">Japan Airlines (9201)</a> will replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toyobo-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6187:1" rel="noopener">Toyobo (3101)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nippon-light-metal-holdings" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1485:1" rel="noopener">Nippon Light Metal (5703)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/toho-zinc-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:2796:1" rel="noopener">Toho Zinc (5707)</a> in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nikkei-225" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22909:1" rel="noopener">Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX)</a>. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a> has been added at a post-split PAF of 1. This reduces the passive buying on the stock by around a third.</li>
<li>Passive trackers need to buy between 2.2-6.7 days of ADV on the adds while selling between 5-12 days of ADV on the deletes. There's a big funding trade too.</li>
</ul>



Oriental Land (4661), Renesas Electronics (6723) and Japan Airlines (9201) will replace Toyobo (3101), Nippon Light Metal (5703) and Toho Zinc (5707) in the Nikkei 225 (NKY INDEX). 

Oriental Land (4661 JP) has been added at a post-split PAF of 1. This reduces the passive buying on the stock by around a third.
Passive trackers need to buy between 2.2-6.7 days of ADV on the adds while selling between 5-12 days of ADV on the deletes. There's a big funding trade too.


Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Oriental Land, Renesas, JAL IN; Toyobo, Nippon LightMetal, Toho Zinc OUT

Equity Analyst, LightStream Research

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

Equity Analyst

Long-Short Analysis on Japan, Asia and the World

LightStream Research

LightStream conducts quantitatively rigorous and data-driven analysis with a focus on Japan and Asia.

We consistently cover the Tech, Consumer and Industrial sectors, and provide ECM and Events coverage more broadly.

We supplement traditional qualitative insights from company relationships with a robust quantitative foundation that examines as much historical data as is available.
We further refine the accuracy of our insights and calls through the use of alternative data to flesh out current trends, and through a valuation framework that emphasises non-superficial peer group selection and a proper attempt to understand the metrics and changes that have driven security valuations in the past.

Keisei Electric Railway Co / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>We think there’s something fundamentally wrong with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/keisei-electric-railway-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10876:1" rel="noopener">Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)</a>’s current valuation.</li>
<li>Its core business with an estimated fair value of ¥720bn, currently has an implied valuation of negative ¥942bn (stub value).</li>
<li>If investors can convince the management to dispose its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/oriental-land-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13517:1" rel="noopener">Oriental Land (4661 JP)</a>, we think there’s more than a 200% upside to Keisei Electric’s valuation.</li>
</ul>


We think there’s something fundamentally wrong with Keisei Electric Railway Co (9009 JP)’s current valuation.
Its core business with an estimated fair value of ¥720bn, currently has an implied valuation of negative ¥942bn (stub value).
If investors can convince the management to dispose its stake in Oriental Land (4661 JP), we think there’s more than a 200% upside to Keisei Electric’s valuation.


Keisei Electric: Needs Activists to Push the Market

Japan

ORIENTAL LAND CO., LTD. operates Tokyo Disney Resort.  The Company also operates restaurants within the complex and sells Disney merchandise.

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Oriental Land (4661 JP)

Last Week in Event SPACE: Japan Post/Japan Post Bank, Downer, HKBN, Golden Energy

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Nikkei 225 Sep 2023 PREVIEW - Lasertec, Toshiba, Nitori, Maybe Zozo

The March 225 Rebalance is out so the Sep 2023 Review is fair game. I see three ADDs (Lasertec, Toshiba, and Nitori) and three DELETEs (Mitsui E&S,...

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 March 2023 Review - OLC, JAL, Renesas IN.

The Nikkei 225 March 2023 review is as expected. OLC (4661), JAL (9201), and Renesas (6723) IN, three small names OUT. $1.7bn to buy. The important...

Travis Lundy

Nikkei 225 Index Rebalance: Oriental Land, Renesas, JAL IN; Toyobo, Nippon LightMetal, Toho Zinc OUT

There are 3 adds and 3 deletes in March - mostly on expected line. The inclusion of Oriental Land at a lower than expected PAF could see some...

Brian Freitas

Keisei Electric: Needs Activists to Push the Market

Keisei Electric’s core business is in the transportation sector. It served around 170.0m commuters in the east part of Tokyo, Chiba and Ibaraki...

Oshadhi Kumarasiri

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