Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>In the last six weeks, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agl-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:554:1" rel="noopener">AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU)</a> has fallen and is now at the low end of its post-Brookfield bid trading range. Now below the A$8.25 bid.</li>
<li>AGL has one generator down - the <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20220610/pdf/459t8xlfbrcrjt.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Loy Yang A Unit 2</a> - which will be back in late Sep. Guidance is left... unguided. There will be a related loss.</li>
<li>In the meantime, the rest of the producing assets have probably been having a field day. But given shareholder structure, we're still in limbo.</li>
</ul>


In the last six weeks, AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU) has fallen and is now at the low end of its post-Brookfield bid trading range. Now below the A$8.25 bid.
AGL has one generator down - the Loy Yang A Unit 2 - which will be back in late Sep. Guidance is left... unguided. There will be a related loss.
In the meantime, the rest of the producing assets have probably been having a field day. But given shareholder structure, we're still in limbo.


AGL - Down, Not Out. Tight Coal Vs FIDs. And MCB Waiting

<ul>
<li>After 14 months of Strategic Review and preparation for a Demerger of its generation and distribution businesses, the Board has <a href="https://www.asx.com.au/asxpdf/20220530/pdf/459fg181kqf4tl.pdf" target="_blank" rel="noopener">dropped the Demerger Proposal</a> in face of shareholder opposition.</li>
<li>While it isn't clear exactly how much opposition there was, Michael Cannon-Brookes held 11+% and General Meetings have garnered 50-75% of investors for a vote which needed 75% approval.</li>
<li>CEO and Chair have announced their resignations, two other board members will leave, and now the Board will start another strategic review using preparation at hand.</li>
</ul>


After 14 months of Strategic Review and preparation for a Demerger of its generation and distribution businesses, the Board has dropped the Demerger Proposal in face of shareholder opposition.
While it isn't clear exactly how much opposition there was, Michael Cannon-Brookes held 11+% and General Meetings have garnered 50-75% of investors for a vote which needed 75% approval.
CEO and Chair have announced their resignations, two other board members will leave, and now the Board will start another strategic review using preparation at hand.


AGL Drops Demerger Proposal - Back To Square Two

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

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<ul>
<li>The IFA supported the demerger by stating that “<em>in the absence of a fully priced takeover offer from a third party, the demerger is the most attractive course of action.</em>”</li>
<li>IFA concedes that “<em>it is not possible to form a definitive view</em>” if the demerger will generate higher shareholder returns. The report is light on qualitative analysis. </li>
<li>Mike Cannon-Brookes continues to gain retail support for a NO vote at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agl-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:554:1" rel="noopener">AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU)</a>'s 15 June scheme meeting. Our SoTP points to upside absent a demerger.</li>
</ul>


The IFA supported the demerger by stating that “in the absence of a fully priced takeover offer from a third party, the demerger is the most attractive course of action.”
IFA concedes that “it is not possible to form a definitive view” if the demerger will generate higher shareholder returns. The report is light on qualitative analysis. 
Mike Cannon-Brookes continues to gain retail support for a NO vote at AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU)'s 15 June scheme meeting. Our SoTP points to upside absent a demerger.


AGL Energy’s Demerger Booklet Provides an Underwhelming Justification

<ul>
<li>Mike Cannon-Brookes (Grok Ventures) has become the largest <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agl-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:554:1" rel="noopener">AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU)</a> shareholder, by acquiring an 11.28% interest through derivatives transactions. </li>
<li>Mr Cannon-Brookes will vote against the demerger scheme (vote on 15 June) and has launched an <a href="https://www.keepittogetheraustralia.com.au/" target="_blank" rel="noopener">online campaign</a> to influence the retail heavy share register.</li>
<li>The rationale for the demerger remains unconvincing. Our SoTP points to upside absent a demerger. If the demerger fails, the long-term play could still be to revisit the privatisation plan.</li>
</ul>


Mike Cannon-Brookes (Grok Ventures) has become the largest AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU) shareholder, by acquiring an 11.28% interest through derivatives transactions. 
Mr Cannon-Brookes will vote against the demerger scheme (vote on 15 June) and has launched an online campaign to influence the retail heavy share register.
The rationale for the demerger remains unconvincing. Our SoTP points to upside absent a demerger. If the demerger fails, the long-term play could still be to revisit the privatisation plan.


AGL Energy’s Demerger Vote in the Balance with Grok Ventures’ Move

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/agl-energy-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:554:1" rel="noopener">AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU)</a> has rejected the Brookfield consortium’s bid of A$7.50 cash per share largely due to the mediocre 4.7% premium to the undisturbed price.  </li>
<li>The Brookfield consortium strategy seems to nudge shareholders to force the Board to engage to seek better terms and increase the uncertainty on the scheme vote on the demerger. </li>
<li>At last close, the shares are trading 5% above the terms suggesting a higher bid. A takeout price of A$9 is entirely possible. </li>
</ul>



AGL Energy Ltd (AGL AU) has rejected the Brookfield consortium’s bid of A$7.50 cash per share largely due to the mediocre 4.7% premium to the undisturbed price.  
The Brookfield consortium strategy seems to nudge shareholders to force the Board to engage to seek better terms and increase the uncertainty on the scheme vote on the demerger. 
At last close, the shares are trading 5% above the terms suggesting a higher bid. A takeout price of A$9 is entirely possible. 


AGL Energy in Brookfield and Grok Ventures’ Crosshairs

Australia

Origin Energy Limited is an integrated energy company. The Company is an energy retailer in Australia across electricity, gas and LPG. Origin Energy also holds a generation portfolio and fuel position and a renewable energy portfolio, as well as unconventional gas and LNG interests.

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Origin Energy (ORG AU)

AGL - Down, Not Out. Tight Coal Vs FIDs. And MCB Waiting

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Travis Lundy

AGL Drops Demerger Proposal - Back To Square Two

AGL has dropped its Demerger proposal in the face of fears it wouldn't get 75% of a low-turnout vote. Chair + CEO have resigned on a forward basis....

Travis Lundy

AGL Energy’s Demerger Booklet Provides an Underwhelming Justification

While the IFA supports the demerger, the report is light on qualitative analysis. Mike Cannon-Brookes continues to gain retail support for a NO...

Arun George

AGL Energy’s Demerger Vote in the Balance with Grok Ventures’ Move

Mr Cannon-Brookes (11.28% stake) will vote against the demerger scheme on 15 June. The rationale for the demerger remains unconvincing. Our SoTP...

Arun George

AGL Energy in Brookfield and Grok Ventures’ Crosshairs

The Brookfield consortium clearly knew that a near no-premium bid would be rejected. The strategy seems to nudge the Board to seek better terms and...

Arun George

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