Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There is 1 add for the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index but the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF</a> will buy 8 stocks and sell 24 stocks due to a benchmark change.</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 26.8% and the round-trip trade for the ETF is US$12.7bn. There are 23 stocks with over 5x ADV to trade.</li>
<li>The ETF adds have underperformed the ETF sells in the last month, but a basket of ETF upweights has outperformed a basket of ETF downweights.</li>
</ul>


There is 1 add for the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index but the VanEck Gold Miners ETF will buy 8 stocks and sell 24 stocks due to a benchmark change.
Estimated one-way turnover is 26.8% and the round-trip trade for the ETF is US$12.7bn. There are 23 stocks with over 5x ADV to trade.
The ETF adds have underperformed the ETF sells in the last month, but a basket of ETF upweights has outperformed a basket of ETF downweights.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Benchmark Change; 8 Adds, 24 Deletes, US$12.7bn Trade

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>Our global near-term outlook remains neutral on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 3/17/26 Int'l Macro Vision); we downgraded our outlook after ACWI-US broke below $141.50 support.</li>
<li>We downgraded our outlook to bearish on U.S. equities (S&amp;P 500) on March 31. Global equities have held up a bit better, and crucial support held at $134 on ACWI-US.</li>
<li>While we remain defensive and are concerned that ACWI-US will break down, we would only turn bearish on global equities if ACWI-US breaks below $134.</li>
</ul>


Our global near-term outlook remains neutral on MSCI ACWI (in place since our 3/17/26 Int'l Macro Vision); we downgraded our outlook after ACWI-US broke below $141.50 support.
We downgraded our outlook to bearish on U.S. equities (S&amp;P 500) on March 31. Global equities have held up a bit better, and crucial support held at $134 on ACWI-US.
While we remain defensive and are concerned that ACWI-US will break down, we would only turn bearish on global equities if ACWI-US breaks below $134.


Upgrading Norway to Overweight; Stay Defensive. Buys in Utilities, Energy, and Materials

Global Materials | Industrials | Commodities

Rahul Jain

Commodities

<ul>
<li>MVGDX concentrates in North America and silver duration, shrinking Asia to ~3% based on liquidity and replication discipline.</li>
<li>AMMN breaches gold-purity retention thresholds, signalling likely removal in 2026 and passive outflows.</li>
<li>BRMS remains the only credible Indonesian gold-pure substitute; Zijin inclusion unlikely before Q3-2027 due to float constraints.</li>
</ul>


MVGDX concentrates in North America and silver duration, shrinking Asia to ~3% based on liquidity and replication discipline.
AMMN breaches gold-purity retention thresholds, signalling likely removal in 2026 and passive outflows.
BRMS remains the only credible Indonesian gold-pure substitute; Zijin inclusion unlikely before Q3-2027 due to float constraints.


Asia Gold Mining 2026–27: Pricing the AMMN Exit & The BRMS Proxy Pivot

Zijin Gold International / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There are 5 additions for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> in December. <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a> is a surprise add (as are some of the others).</li>
<li>Estimated one-way turnover is 15.2% and that leads to a round-trip trade of US$8.8bn. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade from passive trackers.</li>
<li>The MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index has just passed its earlier highs, but a lot of the adds have broken out and are trading much higher than their prior highs.</li>
</ul>


There are 5 additions for the VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) in December. Zijin Gold (2259 HK) is a surprise add (as are some of the others).
Estimated one-way turnover is 15.2% and that leads to a round-trip trade of US$8.8bn. There are many stocks with multiple days of ADV to trade from passive trackers.
The MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index has just passed its earlier highs, but a lot of the adds have broken out and are trading much higher than their prior highs.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: 5 Adds and US$8.8bn Trade; Zijin Gold Added

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of high and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.</li>
<li>There will be five ADDs for the December 2025 rebal event. We predicted two and the other three are surprises.</li>
<li>We expect <em>one</em>-way flow of US$4.1bn and turnover of ~15% for December 2025. Most of this is <em>re</em>-capping flows of the megacaps.</li>
</ul>


The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of high and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world.
There will be five ADDs for the December 2025 rebal event. We predicted two and the other three are surprises.
We expect one-way flow of US$4.1bn and turnover of ~15% for December 2025. Most of this is re-capping flows of the megacaps.


[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Dec25 Rebalance Results: Five ADDs; US$4bn One-Way Flow

Canada

Orla Mining Ltd. of Canada operates as a mineral exploration company. The Company focuses on acquiring mineral exploration opportunities.

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Orla Mining (ORLA US)

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Benchmark Change; 8 Adds, 24 Deletes, US$12.7bn Trade

The GDX ETF will change benchmarks at the close on 19 Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 26.8%; round-trip trade for the ETF is US$12.7bn. Adds...

Brian Freitas

Upgrading Norway to Overweight; Stay Defensive. Buys in Utilities, Energy, and Materials

Upgrading Norway to Overweight; Stay Defensive. Buys in global Utilities, Energy, and Materials. $ACWI support at $134 holding for now, but still...

Vermilion Research

Asia Gold Mining 2026–27: Pricing the AMMN Exit & The BRMS Proxy Pivot

MVGDX focuses on North America, AMMN faces removal in 2026, BRMS is top Indonesian gold substitute with Zijin inclusion unlikely before Q3-2027.

Rahul Jain

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: 5 Adds and US$8.8bn Trade; Zijin Gold Added

The flows have changed following the non-inclusion of Zijin Gold in the index. With cornerstones locked up till end-March, Zijin Gold will not be...

Brian Freitas

[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Dec25 Rebalance Results: Five ADDs; US$4bn One-Way Flow

The Index Provider announced last night that Zijin Gold (2259 HK) - which they had added to the MV Global Gold Miners Index last Friday - would NOT...

Travis Lundy

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Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Benchmark Change; 8 Adds, 24 Deletes, US$12.7bn Trade

The GDX ETF will change benchmarks at the close on 19 Sep. Estimated one-way turnover is 26.8%; round-trip trade for the ETF is US$12.7bn. Adds...

Brian Freitas

Upgrading Norway to Overweight; Stay Defensive. Buys in Utilities, Energy, and Materials

Upgrading Norway to Overweight; Stay Defensive. Buys in global Utilities, Energy, and Materials. $ACWI support at $134 holding for now, but still...

Vermilion Research

Asia Gold Mining 2026–27: Pricing the AMMN Exit & The BRMS Proxy Pivot

​MVGDX focuses on North America, AMMN faces removal in 2026, BRMS is top Indonesian gold substitute with Zijin inclusion unlikely before Q3-2027.

Rahul Jain

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: 5 Adds and US$8.8bn Trade; Zijin Gold Added

The flows have changed following the non-inclusion of Zijin Gold in the index. With cornerstones locked up till end-March, Zijin Gold will not be...

Brian Freitas

[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Dec25 Rebalance Results: Five ADDs; US$4bn One-Way Flow

The Index Provider announced last night that Zijin Gold (2259 HK) - which they had added to the MV Global Gold Miners Index last Friday - would NOT...

Travis Lundy

MVGDX focuses on North America, AMMN faces removal in 2026, BRMS is top Indonesian gold substitute with Zijin inclusion unlikely before Q3-2027.