Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Sentiment has started to wobble in the AI mega cap trade</li>
<li>Risk is elevated as bearish divergences  and rolling tops abound</li>
<li>No top yet signalled in the major US indices -  so what to do in this environment </li>
</ul>


Sentiment has started to wobble in the AI mega cap trade
Risk is elevated as bearish divergences  and rolling tops abound
No top yet signalled in the major US indices -  so what to do in this environment 


Overview #40 – Trouble in Paradise: Cracks in the AI Trade

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

<ul>
<li>In the past several days, one of the biggest news splash in the global financial markets has been Michael Burry taking huge bearish positions on Palantir and NVIDIA.</li>
<li>Prices of Palantir and Nvidia are down 6.3% and 3.6%, respectively from 31 October to 6 November. Nikkei and KOSPI are down 2.9% and 2%, respectively in the same period.</li>
<li>The risks surrounding CIRCULAR DEALMAKING involving OpenAI have become even more significant.  Amid these uncertainties, Michael Burry is taking action with his uber bearish positions on Nvidia and Palantir. </li>
</ul>


In the past several days, one of the biggest news splash in the global financial markets has been Michael Burry taking huge bearish positions on Palantir and NVIDIA.
Prices of Palantir and Nvidia are down 6.3% and 3.6%, respectively from 31 October to 6 November. Nikkei and KOSPI are down 2.9% and 2%, respectively in the same period.
The risks surrounding CIRCULAR DEALMAKING involving OpenAI have become even more significant.  Amid these uncertainties, Michael Burry is taking action with his uber bearish positions on Nvidia and Palantir. 


Michael Burry's Uber Bearish Positions in Palantir and Nvidia

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Palantir Technologies  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Palantir Technologies has been one of 2025’s biggest winners in the AI equity space, delivering a jaw-dropping rally of nearly 140% year-to-date.</li><li>Following a selloff in mid-August that briefly interrupted its meteoric ascent, the stock has rebounded strongly and remains a key beneficiary of enterprise AI spending and hyperscaler capital expenditure cycles.</li><li>The company's Q2 results added fuel to the rally, showcasing record-breaking revenue of over $1 billion, a 48% year-overyear increase, and a staggering Rule of 40 score of 94%.</li></ul>

Palantir Technologies has been one of 2025’s biggest winners in the AI equity space, delivering a jaw-dropping rally of nearly 140% year-to-date.Following a selloff in mid-August that briefly interrupted its meteoric ascent, the stock has rebounded strongly and remains a key beneficiary of enterprise AI spending and hyperscaler capital expenditure cycles.The company's Q2 results added fuel to the rally, showcasing record-breaking revenue of over $1 billion, a 48% year-overyear increase, and a staggering Rule of 40 score of 94%.

Palantir Is Dominating AI In 2025—But Its Valuation Is Terrifying!

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hanwha-systems-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28308:1" rel="noopener">Hanwha Systems Co Ltd (272210 KS)</a> will be added to the MarketVector Global Defense Industry Index at the close on 19 September.</li>
<li>The constituent change, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 3.1% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$437m.</li>
<li>Inflows to the tracking ETF have slowed down but there could be more inflows after a period of consolidation in the underlying stocks.</li>
</ul>



Hanwha Systems Co Ltd (272210 KS) will be added to the MarketVector Global Defense Industry Index at the close on 19 September.
The constituent change, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 3.1% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$437m.
Inflows to the tracking ETF have slowed down but there could be more inflows after a period of consolidation in the underlying stocks.


MV Global Defense Industry Index Rebalance: Hanwha Systems Added as Stocks Play Offence

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>12 months on from the Tender Offer which changed the shape of the shareholder register, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sun-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10803:1" rel="noopener">Sun Corp (6736 JP)</a> is up small and its main asset Cellebrite is -10%.</li>
<li>The value of the rest of Sun Corp has probably increased to cover that 10% through new business earnings, but the main value is still Cellebrite. An exit still awaited.</li>
<li>Now Cellebrite is lower, and SunCorp is lower (but recently rising) and SunCorp has announced a buyback which accounts for a big chunk of Real World Float. Hmmm...</li>
</ul>


12 months on from the Tender Offer which changed the shape of the shareholder register, Sun Corp (6736 JP) is up small and its main asset Cellebrite is -10%.
The value of the rest of Sun Corp has probably increased to cover that 10% through new business earnings, but the main value is still Cellebrite. An exit still awaited.
Now Cellebrite is lower, and SunCorp is lower (but recently rising) and SunCorp has announced a buyback which accounts for a big chunk of Real World Float. Hmmm...


Sun Corp (6736) - CLBT Has Round-Tripped, But Now Better ParentCo and a Buyback so Set-Up Is Better

United States

Palantir Technologies Inc. develops software to analyze information. The Company offers solutions support many kinds of data including structured, unstructured, relational, temporal, and geospatial. Palantir Technologies serves customers worldwide.

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Palantir Technologies (PLTR US)

Overview #40 – Trouble in Paradise: Cracks in the AI Trade

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the recent negative newsflow in the AI sector and potential...

Rikki Malik

Michael Burry's Uber Bearish Positions in Palantir and Nvidia

In the past several days, one of the biggest news splash in the global financial markets has been Michael Burry taking huge bearish positions on...

Douglas Kim

Palantir Is Dominating AI In 2025—But Its Valuation Is Terrifying!

Palantir Technologies has been one of 2025’s biggest winners in the AI equity space, delivering a jaw-dropping rally of nearly 140%...

Baptista Research

MV Global Defense Industry Index Rebalance: Hanwha Systems Added as Stocks Play Offence

Hanwha Systems will be added to the index. One-way turnover is 3.1% and the round-trip trade is US$437m. Most stocks are at or near new highs and...

Brian Freitas

Sun Corp (6736) - CLBT Has Round-Tripped, But Now Better ParentCo and a Buyback so Set-Up Is Better

Since I wrote 3 weeks ago, CLBT is up 20%, Sun Corp is up 10%, the discount is wider. US domestic political stress will only increase the demand...

Travis Lundy

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