Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

Northern Star Resources / Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> transitioned from the tracking the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index in September.</li>
<li>With float below 10%, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-gold-international" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45448:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Gold (2259 HK)</a> should miss inclusion in the index in December, while <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/dundee-precious-metals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:42245:1" rel="noopener">Dundee Precious Metals (DPM CN)</a> is a potential inclusion.</li>
<li>There are big capping changes with estimated one-way turnover of 6.4% and a round-trip trade of US$4.1bn.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) transitioned from the tracking the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index in September.
With float below 10%, Zijin Gold (2259 HK) should miss inclusion in the index in December, while Dundee Precious Metals (DPM CN) is a potential inclusion.
There are big capping changes with estimated one-way turnover of 6.4% and a round-trip trade of US$4.1bn.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: Zijin Gold Is a Miss; One Add Likely; US$4.1bn Trade

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of large and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed globally. Last month the index inorganically gained significant tracking AUM.</li>
<li>This index is reviewed and rebalanced quarterly during which names can be added or deleted from the index. Our expectations for the December 2025 index rebal event are presented here.</li>
<li>We expect 2 high-conviction ADDs for December 2025, with one-way flow of US$1.85bn. Healthy start for this new-ish index.</li>
</ul>


The MV Global Gold Miners index represents the performance of large and mid-cap gold and silver mining companies listed globally. Last month the index inorganically gained significant tracking AUM.
This index is reviewed and rebalanced quarterly during which names can be added or deleted from the index. Our expectations for the December 2025 index rebal event are presented here.
We expect 2 high-conviction ADDs for December 2025, with one-way flow of US$1.85bn. Healthy start for this new-ish index.


[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Dec25: 2 ADDs Expected; US$1.8bn One-Way Flows

<ul>
<li>The MV Junior Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. We like it because of impact.</li>
<li>This index is reviewed semiannually in March/September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index.</li>
<li>There will be no index changes for the December 2025 rebal event. However, we currently expect a one-way flow of US$186mm for December 2025 due to capping/re-capping.</li>
</ul>


The MV Junior Gold Miners index represents the performance of small-cap gold and silver mining companies listed around the world. We like it because of impact.
This index is reviewed semiannually in March/September. During these reviews, names can be added or deleted from the index.
There will be no index changes for the December 2025 rebal event. However, we currently expect a one-way flow of US$186mm for December 2025 due to capping/re-capping.


[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Index Dec25 Rebal: Capping Flow Expectations Limited

Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.</li>
<li>Speculative Growth Themes Still Leading; Nuclear Stocks are Going... Nuclear. We highlight many speculative stocks to buy that we believe will continue to outperform into year-end</li>
<li>Software (IGV), semiconductors (XSD), (IPO), ARK (ARKK and ARKW), uranium (URA), hydrogen (HYDR), quantum computing (IONQ, RGTI, QUBT, QBTS), A.I., nuclear, robotics, drones, autonomous driving, EV batteries, energy storage,bitcoin,data centers</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish since our 4/22/25 Compass, and we will maintain our bullish outlook as long as market dynamics remain healthy and the S&amp;P 500 (SPX) is above 6028-6059.
Speculative Growth Themes Still Leading; Nuclear Stocks are Going... Nuclear. We highlight many speculative stocks to buy that we believe will continue to outperform into year-end
Software (IGV), semiconductors (XSD), (IPO), ARK (ARKK and ARKW), uranium (URA), hydrogen (HYDR), quantum computing (IONQ, RGTI, QUBT, QBTS), A.I., nuclear, robotics, drones, autonomous driving, EV batteries, energy storage,bitcoin,data centers


Going Nuclear $LTBR $LEU $NNE $OKLO $SMR; Russell 2000 Breakout to All-Time Highs; Still Bullish

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-gold-miners-etf-usa" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32924:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US)</a> will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.</li>
<li>The differences in the constituents between the two indices should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes. Estimated one-way turnover is 27.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$12.5bn.</li>
<li>The forecast adds have continued to underperform the forecast deletes as the big valuation gap that had opened up since the announcement of the benchmark switch narrows.</li>
</ul>


The VanEck Gold Miners ETF/USA (GDX US) will change benchmark from the NYSE Arca Gold Miners Index to the MarketVector Global Gold Miners Index at the close on 19 September.
The differences in the constituents between the two indices should result in 8 adds and 25 deletes. Estimated one-way turnover is 27.4% resulting in a round-trip trade of US$12.5bn.
The forecast adds have continued to underperform the forecast deletes as the big valuation gap that had opened up since the announcement of the benchmark switch narrows.


Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Further Capping Pushes Trade to Over US$12.5bn

Canada

Pan American Silver Corporation is a primary silver producer.   The Company has seven operating mines in Mexico,  Peru, Argentina and Bolivia and several development projects in USA,  Mexico, Peru and Argentina.

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Pan American Silver (PAAS CN)

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US) Dec Rebalance: Zijin Gold Is a Miss; One Add Likely; US$4.1bn Trade

DPM Metals is a potential add, Zijin Gold is a likely miss in Dec. There are big capping changes with estimated one-way turnover of 6.4% and a...

Brian Freitas

[Quiddity Index] MV Global Gold Miners Dec25: 2 ADDs Expected; US$1.8bn One-Way Flows

The MV GDX Index is the new benchmark for the GDX ETF. Big flows last month on the benchmark change, and now two potential ADDs for December. One...

Travis Lundy

[Quiddity Index] MV Junior Gold Miners Index Dec25 Rebal: Capping Flow Expectations Limited

The MV Junior Gold Miners Index gets a rebal but not a review in December so flows are limited to capping and recapping. So far not significant....

Travis Lundy

Going Nuclear $LTBR $LEU $NNE $OKLO $SMR; Russell 2000 Breakout to All-Time Highs; Still Bullish

Going Nuclear $LTBR $LEU $OKLO $NNE $LEU; Russell 2000 Breakout to All-Time Highs; Still Bullish; Continue to Overweight Spec Growth Themes into...

Vermilion Research

Gold Miners ETF (GDX US): Further Capping Pushes Trade to Over US$12.5bn

The GDX benchmark change is expected to result in 27.4% turnover and a US$12.5bn trade. Multiple days of ADV need to be traded in a lot of stocks....

Brian Freitas

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