Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>I tally 36 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>No new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week - no suprises there.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/predictive-discovery-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15374:1" rel="noopener">Predictive Discovery (PDI AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hainan-meilan-international-airport-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12545:1" rel="noopener">Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/low-keng-huat-singapore-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1928:1" rel="noopener">Low Keng Huat Singapore (LKH SP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hogy-medical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10493:1" rel="noopener">Hogy Medical (3593 JP)</a>.</li>
</ul>


I tally 36 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
No new deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week - no suprises there.
Key updates/news also took place on: Predictive Discovery (PDI AU), Hainan Meilan International Airport (357 HK), Low Keng Huat Singapore (LKH SP), and Hogy Medical (3593 JP).


Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Hogy Medical, Predictive Discovery, Meilan Airport, Low Keng Huat

<ul>
<li>For December 2025, 5 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of just ~US$3bn.</li>
<li>The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in December was ~87%, with a year-to-date average of ~49%.</li>
<li>The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (124 transactions), 2023 (114), 2022 (104), 2021 (143), 2020 (133), and 2019 (110) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.</li>
</ul>


For December 2025, 5 new transactions (firm and non-binding) were discussed on Smartkarma (by the Quiddity team) with an overall announced deal size of just ~US$3bn.
The average premium for the new transactions announced (or first discussed) in December was ~87%, with a year-to-date average of ~49%.
The average premiums for transactions in 2024 (124 transactions), 2023 (114), 2022 (104), 2021 (143), 2020 (133), and 2019 (110) were 43%, 39%, 41%, 33%, 31%, and 31%.


(Mostly) Asia M&A, Dec 2025 Wrap: ANE Cayman, Mandom, Predictive Discovery, Hogy Medical

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ane-cayman-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35025:1" rel="noopener">ANE Cayman (9956 HK)</a>'s Scheme Doc is out, absent any reference to CDH (holding an estimated 18%). Given precedents with similar fact patterns, this is probably one deal to avoid.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hogy-medical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10493:1" rel="noopener">Hogy Medical (3593 JP)</a>'s Offer Price is more than expected; but the fact that Dalton , who really wanted to sell, but isn't selling, suggests the price should be higher.</li>
<li>8th January vote on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hsbc-holdings-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:516:1" rel="noopener">HSBC (5 HK)</a>'s Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hang-seng-bank-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24:1" rel="noopener">Hang Seng Bank (11 HK)</a>.  Safe deal. This is effectively a term deposit hybrid.</li>
</ul>



ANE Cayman (9956 HK)'s Scheme Doc is out, absent any reference to CDH (holding an estimated 18%). Given precedents with similar fact patterns, this is probably one deal to avoid.

Hogy Medical (3593 JP)'s Offer Price is more than expected; but the fact that Dalton , who really wanted to sell, but isn't selling, suggests the price should be higher.
8th January vote on HSBC (5 HK)'s Offer for Hang Seng Bank (11 HK).  Safe deal. This is effectively a term deposit hybrid.


Last Week In Event SPACE: ANE Cayman. Hogy Medical, Hang Seng, Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent

<ul>
<li>I tally xx - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>Four new (ish) deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/360-capital-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:11865:1" rel="noopener">360 Capital (TGP AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/humm-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35366:1" rel="noopener">Humm Group (HUM AU)</a> , <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hogy-medical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10493:1" rel="noopener">Hogy Medical (3593 JP)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/medical-data-vision-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8367:1" rel="noopener">Medical Data Vision (3902 JP)</a>.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/predictive-discovery-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15374:1" rel="noopener">Predictive Discovery (PDI AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/renew-energy-global-plc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37038:1" rel="noopener">ReNew Energy Global (RNW US)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mandom-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:8353:1" rel="noopener">Mandom Corp (4917 JP)</a> </li>
</ul>


I tally xx - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
Four new (ish) deals were discussed on Smartkarma this week: 360 Capital (TGP AU), Humm Group (HUM AU) , Hogy Medical (3593 JP), and Medical Data Vision (3902 JP).
Key updates/news also took place on: Predictive Discovery (PDI AU), ReNew Energy Global (RNW US), and Mandom Corp (4917 JP) 


Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Mandom Humm, Medical Data Vision, Predictive Disc., ReNew Energy Global

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Dec 12th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD29.2bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in JB Hi-Fi, National Australia Bank, Bluescope Steel, Scentre, Metcash.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Dec 12th (reported today). The aggregated short interest was USD29.2bn.
We tabulate league tables for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in JB Hi-Fi, National Australia Bank, Bluescope Steel, Scentre, Metcash.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 12th): JB Hi-Fi, National Australia Bank, Bluescope Steel, Scentre

Australia

PDI Gold Limited operates as a precious metal mining company. The Company discovers, develops, and produces gold. PDI Gold serves customers in Australia and West Africa.

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PDI Gold (PDI AU)

Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Hogy Medical, Predictive Discovery, Meilan Airport, Low Keng Huat

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

(Mostly) Asia M&A, Dec 2025 Wrap: ANE Cayman, Mandom, Predictive Discovery, Hogy Medical

For the month of Dec, 5 new deals were discussed on Smartkarma with an overall deal size of just ~US$3bn. The average premium for the new deals...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: ANE Cayman. Hogy Medical, Hang Seng, Zhejiang Sanhua Intelligent

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: Mandom Humm, Medical Data Vision, Predictive Disc., ReNew Energy Global

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Dec 12th): JB Hi-Fi, National Australia Bank, Bluescope Steel, Scentre

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in JB Hi-Fi, National Australia Bank, Bluescope Steel,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)