IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>On 26 February, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pointsbet-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29102:1" rel="noopener">PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU)</a> entered a scheme implementation deed with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mixi-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:602:1" rel="noopener">Mixi Inc (2121 JP)</a> at A$1.06, a 27.7% premium to the undisturbed price of A$0.83 (25 February).</li>
<li>Subsequently, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/bluebet-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41181:1" rel="noopener">BlueBet Holdings (BBT AU)</a> disclosed a competing non-binding cash-and-scrip offer worth a combined equity value of A$340-360 million or A$1.02-1.09 per PBT share.  </li>
<li>BlueBet has limited headroom to engage in a bidding war, particularly as its share price weakens. The share price already factors in a potential bump from Mixi. </li>
</ul>


On 26 February, PointsBet Holdings (PBH AU) entered a scheme implementation deed with Mixi Inc (2121 JP) at A$1.06, a 27.7% premium to the undisturbed price of A$0.83 (25 February).
Subsequently, BlueBet Holdings (BBT AU) disclosed a competing non-binding cash-and-scrip offer worth a combined equity value of A$340-360 million or A$1.02-1.09 per PBT share.  
BlueBet has limited headroom to engage in a bidding war, particularly as its share price weakens. The share price already factors in a potential bump from Mixi. 


PointsBet (PBH AU): A Tussle Between MIXI (2121 JP) And Bluebet (BBT AU)

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>Yesterday, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/washington-h-soul-pattinson-and-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6054:1" rel="noopener">Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU)</a> made a <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02750847-2A1492843?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">$3bn scrip offer</a> Aussie-listed equities manager <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU).</a>
</li>
<li>Under the indicative terms, PPT shareholders receive one-third of the Offer in SOL shares, and two-thirds in PPT's asset management arm via an in-specie spin-off.</li>
<li>PPT <a href="https://cdn-api.markitdigital.com/apiman-gateway/ASX/asx-research/1.0/file/2924-02750947-2A1492987?access_token=83ff96335c2d45a094df02a206a39ff4" target="_blank" rel="noopener">rejected</a> the proposal as it undervalues PPT, its corporate trust and wealth management businesses; and it offers SOL shares as consideration. But the Offer is not without merit.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday, Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU) made a $3bn scrip offer Aussie-listed equities manager Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU).

Under the indicative terms, PPT shareholders receive one-third of the Offer in SOL shares, and two-thirds in PPT's asset management arm via an in-specie spin-off.
PPT rejected the proposal as it undervalues PPT, its corporate trust and wealth management businesses; and it offers SOL shares as consideration. But the Offer is not without merit.


Oh, The Irony! Perpetual Rejects Soul Patts' "Fair" Offer

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>On 21 November, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/washington-h-soul-pattinson-and-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6054:1" rel="noopener">Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU)</a> submitted a non-binding, indicative offer to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a> at ~A$27/share.</li>
<li>A few hours ago, that offer was rejected by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a>'s Board citing a material undervaluation, conditional on demerger of the Asset Management business and execution risk.</li>
<li>If the deal goes through, there will be small passive buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/washington-h-soul-pattinson-and-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6054:1" rel="noopener">Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU)</a>. No major index changes expected. </li>
</ul>


On 21 November, Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU) submitted a non-binding, indicative offer to acquire Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU) at ~A$27/share.
A few hours ago, that offer was rejected by Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)'s Board citing a material undervaluation, conditional on demerger of the Asset Management business and execution risk.
If the deal goes through, there will be small passive buying in Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU). No major index changes expected. 


WHSP's Non-Binding Indicative Offer for Perpetual Turned Down

<ul>
<li>The Scheme Meeting for BGH/Sixth Street's NZ$1.34/share Offer for church donor management play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pushpay-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:13737:1" rel="noopener">Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ)</a> will take place on the 3 March.</li>
<li>Accident Compensation Corporation (ACC), holding 6.2% of shares out, said it will vote against the Scheme. Nikko Asset Management (1.4%) also said they will reject the Offer. </li>
<li>Shares have wobbled and are now 5.5% adrift of terms. BGH/Sixth Street still has the flexibility to bump.</li>
</ul>


The Scheme Meeting for BGH/Sixth Street's NZ$1.34/share Offer for church donor management play Pushpay Holdings (PPH NZ) will take place on the 3 March.
Accident Compensation Corporation (ACC), holding 6.2% of shares out, said it will vote against the Scheme. Nikko Asset Management (1.4%) also said they will reject the Offer. 
Shares have wobbled and are now 5.5% adrift of terms. BGH/Sixth Street still has the flexibility to bump.


Pushpay Holdings: ACC & Nikko Say No To Scheme

Travis Lundy

<ul>
<li>On Friday after the close, S&amp;P DJI Indices announced that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pexa-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34716:1" rel="noopener">PEXA Group (PXA AU)</a> would replace <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pendal-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15795:1" rel="noopener">Pendal Group (PDL AU)</a> in the S&amp;P ASX 200 on 12 January at close.</li>
<li>This is unsurprising. Pendal was scheduled to exit in January due to takeover. PEXA was already an interim S&amp;P ASX 200 member after the distribution by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/link-administration-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:970:1" rel="noopener">Link Administration (LNK AU)</a>.</li>
<li>The timing is conveniently in the timeframe for the LNK distribution of PXA shares to its shareholders implemented on the 10th. </li>
</ul>


On Friday after the close, S&amp;P DJI Indices announced that PEXA Group (PXA AU) would replace Pendal Group (PDL AU) in the S&amp;P ASX 200 on 12 January at close.
This is unsurprising. Pendal was scheduled to exit in January due to takeover. PEXA was already an interim S&amp;P ASX 200 member after the distribution by Link Administration (LNK AU).
The timing is conveniently in the timeframe for the LNK distribution of PXA shares to its shareholders implemented on the 10th. 


PEXA (PXA) Replaces Pendal (PDL) In the S&P ASX 200, Getting into the Distro Mix

Australia

Pendal Group Limited operates as an investment management company. The Company focuses on portfolio management and advisory services to individuals, institutions, trusts, private funds, charitable organizations, and investment companies. Pendal Group serves customers in Australia.

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Pendal Group (PDL AU)

PointsBet (PBH AU): A Tussle Between MIXI (2121 JP) And Bluebet (BBT AU)

BlueBet has limited headroom to engage in a bidding war, particularly as its share price weakens. The share price already factors in a potential...

Arun George

Oh, The Irony! Perpetual Rejects Soul Patts' "Fair" Offer

PPT is up 6.3% following the disclosure of SOL's approach. I'd be inclined to be long PPT here. SOL may up the ante. And PPT is trading bleow...

David Blennerhassett

WHSP's Non-Binding Indicative Offer for Perpetual Turned Down

Soul Patts offered to buy Perpetual for A$27/share. The Perpetual Board has turned that down. Could Regal/BPEA or other suitors return for a second...

Brian Freitas

Pushpay Holdings: ACC & Nikko Say No To Scheme

BGH/Sixth Street needs to bump - ~5% - otherwise, this will be a very close run thing. It needn't be so. This consortium has been running a ruler...

David Blennerhassett

PEXA (PXA) Replaces Pendal (PDL) In the S&P ASX 200, Getting into the Distro Mix

S&P DJI announced PEXA will replace Pendal in the ASX 200 on 12 Jan 2023 at the close. Not unexpected, but the LNK distribution of 68mm shares -...

Travis Lundy

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