Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>On 21 November, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/washington-h-soul-pattinson-and-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6054:1" rel="noopener">Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU)</a> submitted a non-binding, indicative offer to acquire <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a> at ~A$27/share.</li>
<li>A few hours ago, that offer was rejected by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perpetual-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:599:1" rel="noopener">Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)</a>'s Board citing a material undervaluation, conditional on demerger of the Asset Management business and execution risk.</li>
<li>If the deal goes through, there will be small passive buying in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/washington-h-soul-pattinson-and-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6054:1" rel="noopener">Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU)</a>. No major index changes expected. </li>
</ul>


On 21 November, Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU) submitted a non-binding, indicative offer to acquire Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU) at ~A$27/share.
A few hours ago, that offer was rejected by Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)'s Board citing a material undervaluation, conditional on demerger of the Asset Management business and execution risk.
If the deal goes through, there will be small passive buying in Washington H. Soul Pattinson and Co. Ltd (SOL AU). No major index changes expected. 


WHSP's Non-Binding Indicative Offer for Perpetual Turned Down

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech, Aequitas Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China biotech

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Aug 25th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD15.1bn.</li>
<li>We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.</li>
<li>We highlight short interest changes in Rio Tinto, Domino'S Pizza E, Qbe Insurance, Lottery, BHP, Macquarie, Magellan Fin Grp.</li>
</ul>


We analyzed the changes in short interest of ASX Stocks as of Aug 25th (reported today) which has an aggregated short interest worth USD15.1bn.
We tabulate league table for top short by value and short as multiple of ADT, as well as weekly increases &amp; decreases in short value, short as multiple of ADT.
We highlight short interest changes in Rio Tinto, Domino'S Pizza E, Qbe Insurance, Lottery, BHP, Macquarie, Magellan Fin Grp.


ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 25th): Rio Tinto, Domino'S Pizza E, Qbe Insurance, Lottery, BHP

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Yesterday (28 August) software provider <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/energy-one-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:19865:1" rel="noopener">Energy One Ltd (EOL AU)</a>  announced an indicative Offer, by way of a Scheme, from STG at A$5.85/share, a solid 44% premium to last close. </li>
<li>Energy One has granted STG due diligence on an exclusive basis and the board is supportive if terms are firmed. All looks good. However ...</li>
<li>... Vaughan Busby, a NED and founding CEO of Energy One, is not aligned with the board. And he holds ~14%. </li>
</ul>


Yesterday (28 August) software provider Energy One Ltd (EOL AU)  announced an indicative Offer, by way of a Scheme, from STG at A$5.85/share, a solid 44% premium to last close. 
Energy One has granted STG due diligence on an exclusive basis and the board is supportive if terms are firmed. All looks good. However ...
... Vaughan Busby, a NED and founding CEO of Energy One, is not aligned with the board. And he holds ~14%. 


<ul>
<li>Yesterday (26 July), asset manager <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/treasury-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14625:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Current (PAC AU)</a>  announced a cash/scrip NBIO from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/regal-partners-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29119:1" rel="noopener">Regal Partners (RPL AU)</a>.</li>
<li>Under Regal’s proposal, Pacific Current shareholders would receive an implied $10.77/share. Pacific Current considers the current share price doesn't reflect the underlying value of its portfolio and business.</li>
<li>Now <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gqg-partners-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34569:1" rel="noopener">GQG Partners (GQG AU)</a> has announced it intends to submit its own NBIO. No price was mentioned.</li>
</ul>


Yesterday (26 July), asset manager Pacific Current (PAC AU)  announced a cash/scrip NBIO from Regal Partners (RPL AU).
Under Regal’s proposal, Pacific Current shareholders would receive an implied $10.77/share. Pacific Current considers the current share price doesn't reflect the underlying value of its portfolio and business.
Now GQG Partners (GQG AU) has announced it intends to submit its own NBIO. No price was mentioned.


GQG Mulls Offer As Pacific Current Balks At Regal's NBIO

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/treasury-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14625:1" rel="noopener">Pacific Current (PAC AU)</a> has disclosed a non-binding indicative proposal from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/regal-partners-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29119:1" rel="noopener">Regal Partners (RPL AU)</a> at A$7.50 cash per share and 2.2 <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/gqg-partners-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:34569:1" rel="noopener">GQG Partners (GQG AU)</a> shares per PAC share.</li>
<li>The implied offer price of A$11.12 per share based on GQG's last close price is a juicy 42.6% premium to the undisturbed price of A$7.80 per share (26 July).</li>
<li>The offer is attractive compared to historical ranges and peer multiples. Expect the Board to grant due diligence access to facilitate a binding proposal.</li>
</ul>



Pacific Current (PAC AU) has disclosed a non-binding indicative proposal from Regal Partners (RPL AU) at A$7.50 cash per share and 2.2 GQG Partners (GQG AU) shares per PAC share.
The implied offer price of A$11.12 per share based on GQG's last close price is a juicy 42.6% premium to the undisturbed price of A$7.80 per share (26 July).
The offer is attractive compared to historical ranges and peer multiples. Expect the Board to grant due diligence access to facilitate a binding proposal.


Pacific Current Group (PAC AU): Regal Partners’ Attractive Indicative Offer

Australia

Perpetual Limited is a financial services company that has two primary activities, wealth management services and corporate trust services. The Company provides funds management, responsible entity services, trustee services, executor services, financial planning, investment administration, superannuation, custody and registry services.

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Perpetual Ltd (PPT AU)

WHSP's Non-Binding Indicative Offer for Perpetual Turned Down

Soul Patts offered to buy Perpetual for A$27/share. The Perpetual Board has turned that down. Could Regal/BPEA or other suitors return for a second...

Brian Freitas

ASX Short Interest Weekly (Aug 25th): Rio Tinto, Domino'S Pizza E, Qbe Insurance, Lottery, BHP

We analyzed ASX short interest report for the past week and highlight short interest changes in Rio Tinto, Domino'S Pizza E, Qbe Insurance,...

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Energy One: Busby Baulks At STG's Offer

From his initial in-price, Busby is up bigly. His pushback on pricing is disingenuous - he was selling around terms back in April last year. If...

David Blennerhassett

GQG Mulls Offer As Pacific Current Balks At Regal's NBIO

Shares are up 31.8% to A$10.28/share as I type. ~$11 appears fair value. I'd be a buyer of Pacific Current outright here.

David Blennerhassett

Pacific Current Group (PAC AU): Regal Partners’ Attractive Indicative Offer

The offer is attractive compared to historical ranges and peer multiples. Expect the Board to grant due diligence access to facilitate a binding...

Arun George

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