Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The gold rush continues as<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/predictive-discovery-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15374:1" rel="noopener"> Predictive (PDI AU)</a> and Robex (TSX-V: RBX, ASX: RXR) announce a scrip merger to form a West African mid-tier gold play.</li>
<li>Via a "definitive plan of arrangement", Robex shareholders will receive 8.667 PDI shares for every Robex share.  Upon completion, PDI will hold 51% of shares out, and Robex the remainder.</li>
<li>The Cohen Group and Eglington Mining (collectively holding 25.2% of Robex) are supportive. The key condition is Robex's shareholder vote, sometime in December, with a two-thirds threshold.</li>
</ul>


The gold rush continues as Predictive (PDI AU) and Robex (TSX-V: RBX, ASX: RXR) announce a scrip merger to form a West African mid-tier gold play.
Via a "definitive plan of arrangement", Robex shareholders will receive 8.667 PDI shares for every Robex share.  Upon completion, PDI will hold 51% of shares out, and Robex the remainder.
The Cohen Group and Eglington Mining (collectively holding 25.2% of Robex) are supportive. The key condition is Robex's shareholder vote, sometime in December, with a two-thirds threshold.


Financial News, Analysis and Data, FNArena

FNArena

Financial News, Analysis and Data

Online financial media company focused on Australian equities, with a global perspective

Equity Bottom-Up

Domain Holdings Australia  / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Trade deals, central bank meetings, earnings season (US & Europe) with first local releases later in the week, as well as the all-important June quarter CPI print domestically will set the mood and tone for the ASX200 this week.</li><li> ASX200 futures are pointing to a slightly weaker start, but the overnight, EU-US trade deal may boost sentiment.</li></ul>

Trade deals, central bank meetings, earnings season (US & Europe) with first local releases later in the week, as well as the all-important June quarter CPI print domestically will set the mood and tone for the ASX200 this week. ASX200 futures are pointing to a slightly weaker start, but the overnight, EU-US trade deal may boost sentiment.

Domain Holdings Australia Ltd - The Monday Report - 28 July 2025

Derivatives and Quantitative Strategist

Gaudenz Schneider

<ul>
<li>
Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.</li>
<li>
Highlight: Six pair trade opportunities across three markets and three sectors persist. Two </li>
<li>
Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.</li>
</ul>



Context: This Insight follows up on previously highlighted relative value opportunities, using a statistical methodology based on mean-reversion to identify opportunities in paired securities.

Highlight: Six pair trade opportunities across three markets and three sectors persist. Two 

Why read: Statistical analysis offers a unique perspective on relative value. Gain insights into actionable statistical pair trade opportunities and monitor performance of previously highlighted pairs.


Relative Value Roundup: Performance Recap of Pair Trades in Asia-Pacific

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>There is 1 change for the S&amp;P/ASX20 Index, 1 change for the S&amp;P/ASX50 Index, 2 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index and 2 changes for the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/s-p-asx-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22901:1" rel="noopener">S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX)</a>.</li>
<li>There is between A$30m-A$135m to trade in the index changes and that is between 0.7-16 days of ADV in the stocks. Short interest has jumped in a few stocks.</li>
<li>We expect positioning to be lower than the passive trading in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/nick-scali-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20803:1" rel="noopener">Nick Scali</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/viva-energy-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27220:1" rel="noopener">Viva Energy Group</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perseus-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15306:1" rel="noopener">Perseus Mining</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/austal-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14420:1" rel="noopener">Austal Ltd</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/healius-ltd-6d4d947d-ad32-4aea-b2d8-265f5768b55e" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14208:1" rel="noopener">Healius</a>.</li>
</ul>


There is 1 change for the S&amp;P/ASX20 Index, 1 change for the S&amp;P/ASX50 Index, 2 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX100 Index and 2 changes for the S&amp;P/ASX 200 (AS51 INDEX).
There is between A$30m-A$135m to trade in the index changes and that is between 0.7-16 days of ADV in the stocks. Short interest has jumped in a few stocks.
We expect positioning to be lower than the passive trading in Nick Scali, Viva Energy Group, Perseus Mining, Austal Ltd and Healius.


S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (June 2025): Changes, Flows, Shorts & Positioning

<ul>
<li>With the review period complete, we forecast no inclusions to the index in June. There could be up to 3 deletions at the review though.</li>
<li>Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3.9% and a round-trip trade of A$216m.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pilbara-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7460:1" rel="noopener">Pilbara Minerals</a> is a potential deletion from the S&amp;P/ASX 50 Index with implementation on the same date. Shorts have been covering but short interest is a big percentage of float.</li>
</ul>


With the review period complete, we forecast no inclusions to the index in June. There could be up to 3 deletions at the review though.
Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3.9% and a round-trip trade of A$216m.

Pilbara Minerals is a potential deletion from the S&amp;P/ASX 50 Index with implementation on the same date. Shorts have been covering but short interest is a big percentage of float.


MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Deletions in June

Australia

Perseus Mining Limited is a mining and exploration company. The Company acquires, explores, develops, mines, and produces gold. Perseus Mining conducts its mining operations in Africa and Australia.

Price Gauge
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Perseus Mining (PRU AU)

Predictive/Robex's Merger Of Equals

This looks clean. You could try to go long Robex, short PDI; however both the Aussie and Candian lines for Robex are (currently) illiquid.

David Blennerhassett

Domain Holdings Australia Ltd - The Monday Report - 28 July 2025

Trade deals, central bank meetings, earnings season (US & Europe) with first local releases later in the week, as well as the all-important...

FNArena

Relative Value Roundup: Performance Recap of Pair Trades in Asia-Pacific

Statistical methodology identifies pair trade opportunities in various markets and sectors, offering unique insights and pair trade inspiration...

Gaudenz Schneider

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (June 2025): Changes, Flows, Shorts & Positioning

There are 12 changes across the ASX family. Flows are big in some stocks and short interest has spiked in a few stocks. Adds have outperformed the...

Brian Freitas

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Deletions in June

We do not forecast any inclusions but there could be 3 deletions. Just capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3.9% and a round-trip trade...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Predictive/Robex's Merger Of Equals

This looks clean. You could try to go long Robex, short PDI; however both the Aussie and Candian lines for Robex are (currently) illiquid.

David Blennerhassett

Domain Holdings Australia Ltd - The Monday Report - 28 July 2025

Trade deals, central bank meetings, earnings season (US & Europe) with first local releases later in the week, as well as the all-important...

FNArena

Relative Value Roundup: Performance Recap of Pair Trades in Asia-Pacific

​Statistical methodology identifies pair trade opportunities in various markets and sectors, offering unique insights and pair trade inspiration...

Gaudenz Schneider

S&P/​​​​ASX Index Rebalance (June 2025): Changes, Flows, Shorts & Positioning

There are 12 changes across the ASX family. Flows are big in some stocks and short interest has spiked in a few stocks. Adds have outperformed the...

Brian Freitas

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Deletions in June

We do not forecast any inclusions but there could be 3 deletions. Just capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3.9% and a round-trip trade...

Brian Freitas

Statistical methodology identifies pair trade opportunities in various markets and sectors, offering unique insights and pair trade inspiration...

S&P/ASX Index Rebalance (June 2025): Changes, Flows, Shorts & Positioning