IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

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Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/predictive-discovery-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15374:1" rel="noopener">Predictive Discovery (PDI AU)</a> has disclosed a competing all-scrip scheme offer from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perseus-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15306:1" rel="noopener">Perseus Mining (PRU AU)</a> at 0.136 Perseus shares per PDI share.</li>
<li>The Perseus offer is attractive compared to peer resource multiples and historical trading ranges. The Board had deemed the proposal superior to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/robex-resources-inc-5fcb5aec-772d-4972-be7e-30cad5c02e26" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45881:1" rel="noopener">Robex Resources (RBX CN)</a> merger transaction.</li>
<li>Robex has five business days to exercise matching rights. Robex will struggle to match due to the large gap in the offer values. </li>
</ul>



Predictive Discovery (PDI AU) has disclosed a competing all-scrip scheme offer from Perseus Mining (PRU AU) at 0.136 Perseus shares per PDI share.
The Perseus offer is attractive compared to peer resource multiples and historical trading ranges. The Board had deemed the proposal superior to the Robex Resources (RBX CN) merger transaction.
Robex has five business days to exercise matching rights. Robex will struggle to match due to the large gap in the offer values. 


Predictive Discovery (PDI AU): Perseus (PRU AU) Trumps Robex with a Competing Offer

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>On the 6th October, West African mid-tier gold play <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/predictive-discovery-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15374:1" rel="noopener">Predictive Discovery (PDI AU)</a> announced scrip-merger with <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/robex-resources-inc-5fcb5aec-772d-4972-be7e-30cad5c02e26" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45881:1" rel="noopener">Robex Resources (RBX CN/RBX AU)</a>. Upon completion, PDI would hold 51% of shares out.</li>
<li>Immediately, rumours circled in local media that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/perseus-mining-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15306:1" rel="noopener">Perseus Mining (PRU AU)</a>, PDI's largest shareholder (17.8%), was poised to launch its own offer. That has now unfolded. </li>
<li>Perseus is offering 0.1360 new Perseus share for every PDI share, or an indicative consideration of A$0.778/share. PDI deemed terms superior. Robex has matching rights under its definitive agreement.</li>
</ul>


On the 6th October, West African mid-tier gold play Predictive Discovery (PDI AU) announced scrip-merger with Robex Resources (RBX CN/RBX AU). Upon completion, PDI would hold 51% of shares out.
Immediately, rumours circled in local media that Perseus Mining (PRU AU), PDI's largest shareholder (17.8%), was poised to launch its own offer. That has now unfolded. 
Perseus is offering 0.1360 new Perseus share for every PDI share, or an indicative consideration of A$0.778/share. PDI deemed terms superior. Robex has matching rights under its definitive agreement.


Predictive: Perseus Pitches Preferred Proposal

<ul>
<li>Given the size of Mandi - relative to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/3sbio-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:459:1" rel="noopener">3SBio Inc (1530 HK)</a> - higher market multiples for its in-specie spin-off may have a limited impact on the overall valuation.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/contemporary-amperex-technology-catl-co-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45179:1" rel="noopener">CATL (3750 HK)</a>  raised around US$5.2bn in its H-share listing in May 2025. The last day for their lockup was the 19th November 2025.</li>
<li>While <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/grindr-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:37106:1" rel="noopener">Grindr (GRND US)</a> Special Committee considers the MBO proposal, chairman James Lu has unusually opted to step down. And sell shares below the NBIO price. </li>
</ul>


Given the size of Mandi - relative to 3SBio Inc (1530 HK) - higher market multiples for its in-specie spin-off may have a limited impact on the overall valuation.

CATL (3750 HK)  raised around US$5.2bn in its H-share listing in May 2025. The last day for their lockup was the 19th November 2025.
While Grindr (GRND US) Special Committee considers the MBO proposal, chairman James Lu has unusually opted to step down. And sell shares below the NBIO price. 


Last Week In Event SPACE: 3SBio/Mandi, CATL, Grindr, Mandarin Oriental

<ul>
<li>I tally 34 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.</li>
<li>One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/genes-tech-group-holdings-company-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:46022:1" rel="noopener">Genes Tech Group Holdings (8257 HK)</a>. Technically, the Offer for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/jinke-smart-services-group-co" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:29214:1" rel="noopener">Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK)</a> is new.</li>
<li>Key updates/news also took place on: <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/rpmglobal-holdings-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:16492:1" rel="noopener">RPMGlobal (RUL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/insignia-financial-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:12349:1" rel="noopener">Insignia Financial (IFL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/webjet-group-limited" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45177:1" rel="noopener">Webjet (WJL AU)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mayne-pharma-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:757:1" rel="noopener">Mayne Pharma (MYX AU)</a>, and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/digital-holdings-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:1697:1" rel="noopener">Digital Holdings (2389 JP)</a>. </li>
</ul>


I tally 34 - mostly firm, mostly Asia-Pac - arb transactions currently being discussed and analysed on Smartkarma. Those arbs metrics and upcoming events are detailed below.
One new deal was discussed on Smartkarma this week: Genes Tech Group Holdings (8257 HK). Technically, the Offer for Jinke Smart Services (9666 HK) is new.
Key updates/news also took place on: RPMGlobal (RUL AU), Insignia Financial (IFL AU), Webjet (WJL AU), Mayne Pharma (MYX AU), and Digital Holdings (2389 JP). 


Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: RPMGlobal, Insignia, Webjet, Mayne Pharma, Jinke Smart, Digital Holdings

<ul>
<li>The gold rush continues as<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/predictive-discovery-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15374:1" rel="noopener"> Predictive (PDI AU)</a> and Robex (TSX-V: RBX, ASX: RXR) announce a scrip merger to form a West African mid-tier gold play.</li>
<li>Via a "definitive plan of arrangement", Robex shareholders will receive 8.667 PDI shares for every Robex share.  Upon completion, PDI will hold 51% of shares out, and Robex the remainder.</li>
<li>The Cohen Group and Eglington Mining (collectively holding 25.2% of Robex) are supportive. The key condition is Robex's shareholder vote, sometime in December, with a two-thirds threshold.</li>
</ul>


The gold rush continues as Predictive (PDI AU) and Robex (TSX-V: RBX, ASX: RXR) announce a scrip merger to form a West African mid-tier gold play.
Via a "definitive plan of arrangement", Robex shareholders will receive 8.667 PDI shares for every Robex share.  Upon completion, PDI will hold 51% of shares out, and Robex the remainder.
The Cohen Group and Eglington Mining (collectively holding 25.2% of Robex) are supportive. The key condition is Robex's shareholder vote, sometime in December, with a two-thirds threshold.


Australia

Perseus Mining Limited is a mining and exploration company. The Company acquires, explores, develops, mines, and produces gold. Perseus Mining conducts its mining operations in Africa and Australia.

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Perseus Mining (PRU AU)

Predictive Discovery (PDI AU): Perseus (PRU AU) Trumps Robex with a Competing Offer

The Perseus offer is attractive. Robex has five business days to exercise matching rights. Robex will struggle to match due to the large gap in the...

Arun George

Predictive: Perseus Pitches Preferred Proposal

Robex has limited options. PRU will just up the ante and block any attempt to wrangle "superior" terms. If you can take down borrow cheaply, look...

David Blennerhassett

Last Week In Event SPACE: 3SBio/Mandi, CATL, Grindr, Mandarin Oriental

It’s Sunday! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed during the...

David Blennerhassett

Asia-Pac M&A Weekly Wrap: RPMGlobal, Insignia, Webjet, Mayne Pharma, Jinke Smart, Digital Holdings

This insight provides a summary of gross/annualised spreads (on deals discussed on Smartkarma) across Asia-Pacific as at the last trading date, and...

David Blennerhassett

Predictive/Robex's Merger Of Equals

This looks clean. You could try to go long Robex, short PDI; however both the Aussie and Candian lines for Robex are (currently) illiquid.

David Blennerhassett

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