Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist, Clifton Derivatives

John Ley

Equity Derivatives and Volatility Specialist

Clifton Derivatives

Independent derivative and volatility research firm focusing on events/catalysts, earnings, relative value and cross asset volatility strategies.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Strong price action across the market this week coupled with implied vols having caught down to historic vols has put a floor on implied vols.</li>
<li>Tencent sees strong call buying in December 410 and 420 Calls with month end 400 strike Put buying for December and January.</li>
<li>Cathay Pacific, +21% over past 3 weeks, HSBC, at 52-week high plus up 38% on the year and BABA, down 21% from Oct 02 high all active names.</li>
</ul>


Strong price action across the market this week coupled with implied vols having caught down to historic vols has put a floor on implied vols.
Tencent sees strong call buying in December 410 and 420 Calls with month end 400 strike Put buying for December and January.
Cathay Pacific, +21% over past 3 weeks, HSBC, at 52-week high plus up 38% on the year and BABA, down 21% from Oct 02 high all active names.


EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly Dec 02 - 06

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

<ul>
<li>The WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index is a fundamentally weighted index that measures the performance of high dividend yield stocks within emerging markets.</li>
<li>The changes at the October rebalance were announced after market close on 4 October with implementation scheduled at the close on 16 October.</li>
<li>There are 241 adds and 208 deletes for the index with an estimated round-trip trade of US$2.5bn. There are many stocks with over 2x ADV to trade.</li>
</ul>


The WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index is a fundamentally weighted index that measures the performance of high dividend yield stocks within emerging markets.
The changes at the October rebalance were announced after market close on 4 October with implementation scheduled at the close on 16 October.
There are 241 adds and 208 deletes for the index with an estimated round-trip trade of US$2.5bn. There are many stocks with over 2x ADV to trade.


WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$2.5bn Round-Trip Trade

HK/China Equity Long-Short

Osbert Tang, CFA

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>With the HSI surging 21.2% since 24 Sep and many stocks have even doubled, the strategy in the HK and China markets will move to chase the laggards.</li>
<li>Among the underperforming HSI constituents, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-resources-power-holdings-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:5385:1" rel="noopener">China Resources Power (836 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-mobile-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27:1" rel="noopener">China Mobile (941 HK)</a> are the better candidates to pick up performance. </li>
<li>For HSCEI, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zijin-mining-group-co-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:6358:1" rel="noopener">Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-shenhua-energy-co-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:382:1" rel="noopener">China Shenhua Energy Co H (1088 HK)</a> have lagged but their stories are interesting and should regain momentum.</li>
</ul>


With the HSI surging 21.2% since 24 Sep and many stocks have even doubled, the strategy in the HK and China markets will move to chase the laggards.
Among the underperforming HSI constituents, China Resources Power (836 HK) and China Mobile (941 HK) are the better candidates to pick up performance. 
For HSCEI, Zijin Mining Group Co Ltd H (2899 HK) and China Shenhua Energy Co H (1088 HK) have lagged but their stories are interesting and should regain momentum.


Global Emerging Market Equities, Propitious Research

Wium Malan, CFA

Global Emerging Market Equities

Independent, Fundamental Quantitative Research

Propitious Research

Fully independent, fundamental and quantitative equity research, focused on companies in the Telecommunication, Media, Technology, Internet and Healthcare sectors in the Global Emerging Markets. Idea generation focused on Quality stocks, trading below their intrinsic Value, with sound Corporate Governance.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top 100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.</li>
<li>The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.</li>
<li>Developed over roughly 4 years and implemented in its current state for over 3 years, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, discussed in detail below.</li>
</ul>


An overview (and output) of our machine learning-driven GEM screening model, which seeks to find the best medium-term long ideas within the top 100 stocks in the MSCI GEM Index.
The model is based on 1) a quantitative multifactor screening model, enhanced by two AI Technology-based approaches; 2) a Deep Neural Network model, and 3) a Recurrent Neural Network model.
Developed over roughly 4 years and implemented in its current state for over 3 years, the model has a solid real-world alpha-generating performance track record, discussed in detail below.


Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>SOUTHBOUND was a net buyer this week. But who cares. They actually net sold US$2bn of everything which was not <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/alibaba-group-holding-ltd-d7b798e2-202d-4e01-9a1e-799e2ae8f0c7" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:28434:1" rel="noopener">Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK)</a>. </li>
<li>Bigger news, of course, was China's "Bazooka" which LOOKS exciting. Stocks are up 15-20% in four days. Lots of BIG numbers are being thrown around. Not everything is "real money."</li>
<li>It takes a little sleuthing to figure out where the real money is. For that, I suggest reading <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/china-s-maybe-biggish-quasi-bazooka" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:160299" rel="noopener">China's [Maybe] Biggish [Quasi?] Bazooka</a> and more below.</li>
</ul>


SOUTHBOUND was a net buyer this week. But who cares. They actually net sold US$2bn of everything which was not Alibaba Group Holding (9988 HK). 
Bigger news, of course, was China's "Bazooka" which LOOKS exciting. Stocks are up 15-20% in four days. Lots of BIG numbers are being thrown around. Not everything is "real money."
It takes a little sleuthing to figure out where the real money is. For that, I suggest reading China's [Maybe] Biggish [Quasi?] Bazooka and more below.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 27 Sep 2024); Everything Changed This Week

China

PetroChina Company Limited explores, develops, and produces crude oil and natural gas.  The Company also refines, transports, and distributes crude oil and petroleum products, produces and sells chemicals, and transmits, markets and sells natural gas.

Price Gauge
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PetroChina (857 HK)

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly Dec 02 - 06

Market showing strong price action this week with implied vols stabilizing, Tencent sees call buying, Cathay Pacific, HSBC, and BABA all active...

John Ley

WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$2.5bn Round-Trip Trade

There are 241 adds/208 deletes for the WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index. The round-trip trade is around US$2.5bn and there are a...

Brian Freitas

China & HK Strategy: What to Grab?

Hong Kong and China markets are seeing a surge, prompting a shift towards chasing underperforming stocks like CR Power and China Mobile in HSI,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Screening for GEMs: October 2024

This insight provides an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, based on a Multifactor model, a Deep Neural...

Wium Malan, CFA

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 27 Sep 2024); Everything Changed This Week

HK SOUTHBOUND Connect flows remain positive, but they remain strong for Alibaba and negative for other tech - particularly Kuaioshou, Meituan, and...

Travis Lundy

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

EQD | Hong Kong Single Stock Options Weekly Dec 02 - 06

​Market showing strong price action this week with implied vols stabilizing, Tencent sees call buying, Cathay Pacific, HSBC, and BABA all active...

John Ley

WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index Rebalance: US$2.5bn Round-Trip Trade

There are 241 adds/208 deletes for the WisdomTree Emerging Markets High Dividend Index. The round-trip trade is around US$2.5bn and there are a...

Brian Freitas

China & HK Strategy: What to Grab?

​Hong Kong and China markets are seeing a surge, prompting a shift towards chasing underperforming stocks like CR Power and China Mobile in HSI,...

Osbert Tang, CFA

Screening for GEMs: October 2024

This insight provides an overview of our, machine learning-driven, proprietary GEM screening model, based on a Multifactor model, a Deep Neural...

Wium Malan, CFA

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 27 Sep 2024); Everything Changed This Week

HK SOUTHBOUND Connect flows remain positive, but they remain strong for Alibaba and negative for other tech - particularly Kuaioshou, Meituan, and...

Travis Lundy

Market showing strong price action this week with implied vols stabilizing, Tencent sees call buying, Cathay Pacific, HSBC, and BABA all active...

Hong Kong and China markets are seeing a surge, prompting a shift towards chasing underperforming stocks like CR Power and China Mobile in HSI,...