Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets, EM Spreads

Leandro Gubler

Senior Credit Analyst - Emerging Markets

EM Spreads

Credit

<ul>
<li>We maintain Overweight on Pemex, anchored by Mexico’s extraordinary support that effectively shifts refinancing needs to the sovereign balance sheet. </li>
<li>We prefer the 2032s for value in the belly and the 2050s for long-end carry and upside. </li>
<li>Near-Term credit remains well-supported, but structural production and downstream weaknesses limit medium-term tightening potential.</li>
</ul>


We maintain Overweight on Pemex, anchored by Mexico’s extraordinary support that effectively shifts refinancing needs to the sovereign balance sheet. 
We prefer the 2032s for value in the belly and the 2050s for long-end carry and upside. 
Near-Term credit remains well-supported, but structural production and downstream weaknesses limit medium-term tightening potential.


Pemex 3Q25: Extraordinary Sovereign Support Reprices Pemex Tighter

<ul>
<li>Argentina’s election setback hit bonds, peso, and equities, reviving “Kicillof risk” and raising concerns over reform momentum, legislative gridlock, and elevated political risk premia.</li>
<li>Suzano priced $1bn 2036s inside guidance, highlighting strong demand and proactive liability management, while Pemex’s $9.9bn buyback and Moody’s B1 upgrade underscored sovereign support.</li>
<li>Markets diverged: LatAm credit widened on Argentine risk, EM and U.S. indices tightened, Argentina’s equities plunged, Brazil and Mexico rallied, oil softened, and U.S. Treasury yields declined.</li>
</ul>


Argentina’s election setback hit bonds, peso, and equities, reviving “Kicillof risk” and raising concerns over reform momentum, legislative gridlock, and elevated political risk premia.
Suzano priced $1bn 2036s inside guidance, highlighting strong demand and proactive liability management, while Pemex’s $9.9bn buyback and Moody’s B1 upgrade underscored sovereign support.
Markets diverged: LatAm credit widened on Argentine risk, EM and U.S. indices tightened, Argentina’s equities plunged, Brazil and Mexico rallied, oil softened, and U.S. Treasury yields declined.


<ul>
<li>Cemex 1Q25: Credit Strength Persists, but No Catalyst for Spread Compression</li>
<li>Pemex 1Q25: Upgraded to Market Perform, but Structural Risks Persist</li>
<li>YPF and Globant Sign Agreement to Modernize Supply Chain with AI</li>
</ul>


Cemex 1Q25: Credit Strength Persists, but No Catalyst for Spread Compression
Pemex 1Q25: Upgraded to Market Perform, but Structural Risks Persist
YPF and Globant Sign Agreement to Modernize Supply Chain with AI


<ul>
<li>Argentina’s Economy Grows Above Expectations in February / Vista 1Q25: Strategic Petronas Acquisition Strengthens Credit and Growth Outlook</li>
<li>Fitch Affirms Cemex at 'BBB-'; Stable Outlook Reflects Resilient Credit Profile</li>
<li>Pemex Rig Suspensions Highlight Ongoing Operational and Financial Risks / MercadoLibre CEO Sees U.S.-China Trade War as Major Opportunity</li>
</ul>


Argentina’s Economy Grows Above Expectations in February / Vista 1Q25: Strategic Petronas Acquisition Strengthens Credit and Growth Outlook
Fitch Affirms Cemex at 'BBB-'; Stable Outlook Reflects Resilient Credit Profile
Pemex Rig Suspensions Highlight Ongoing Operational and Financial Risks / MercadoLibre CEO Sees U.S.-China Trade War as Major Opportunity


<ul>
<li>Argentina’s $20 Billion IMF Deal Could Calm Markets Ahead of Midterms</li>
<li>Pemex Monthly Report: February/Minerva Positioned to Benefit from China’s Shift in Protein Imports</li>
<li>Cemex: Stable Outlook Affirmed Despite Hybrid Reclassification Dragging Metrics/ YPF Launches “Vaca Muerta Institute” to Support Shale Growth</li>
</ul>


Argentina’s $20 Billion IMF Deal Could Calm Markets Ahead of Midterms
Pemex Monthly Report: February/Minerva Positioned to Benefit from China’s Shift in Protein Imports
Cemex: Stable Outlook Affirmed Despite Hybrid Reclassification Dragging Metrics/ YPF Launches “Vaca Muerta Institute” to Support Shale Growth


Mexico

Petroleos Mexicanos operates as an oil and gas exploration and production services. The Company offers pipeline carriage, petrochemical distributor and shipping centers, logistics, and fuel commercialization services. Petroleos Mexicanos serves customers in Mexico.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Petroleos Mexicanos (1232Z MM)

Pemex 3Q25: Extraordinary Sovereign Support Reprices Pemex Tighter

Pemex's credit outlook remains positive due to Mexico's strong support, with strategic bond preferences for value and long-term gains. Structural...

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

Argentina's election setback impacts bonds, peso, and equities, raising concerns over reform momentum and political risk, while LatAm credit...

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

Cemex and Pemex show credit strength in 1Q25, while YPF and Globant collaborate to modernize supply chain with AI. The LatAm Aggregate Index...

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

Argentina's economy grows above expectations in February, Fitch affirms Cemex's credit rating, Pemex rig suspensions highlight risks, MercadoLibre...

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

Argentina secures $20 billion IMF deal to stabilize markets before midterms, while Pemex and Cemex navigate challenges and YPF launches institute...

Leandro Gubler

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Pemex 3Q25: Extraordinary Sovereign Support Reprices Pemex Tighter

​Pemex's credit outlook remains positive due to Mexico's strong support, with strategic bond preferences for value and long-term gains. Structural...

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

​Argentina's election setback impacts bonds, peso, and equities, raising concerns over reform momentum and political risk, while LatAm credit...

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

​Cemex and Pemex show credit strength in 1Q25, while YPF and Globant collaborate to modernize supply chain with AI. The LatAm Aggregate Index...

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

​Argentina's economy grows above expectations in February, Fitch affirms Cemex's credit rating, Pemex rig suspensions highlight risks, MercadoLibre...

Leandro Gubler

EM Spreads - Weekly News & Views

​Argentina secures $20 billion IMF deal to stabilize markets before midterms, while Pemex and Cemex navigate challenges and YPF launches institute...

Leandro Gubler

Pemex's credit outlook remains positive due to Mexico's strong support, with strategic bond preferences for value and long-term gains. Structural...

Argentina's election setback impacts bonds, peso, and equities, raising concerns over reform momentum and political risk, while LatAm credit...

Cemex and Pemex show credit strength in 1Q25, while YPF and Globant collaborate to modernize supply chain with AI. The LatAm Aggregate Index...

Argentina's economy grows above expectations in February, Fitch affirms Cemex's credit rating, Pemex rig suspensions highlight risks, MercadoLibre...

Argentina secures $20 billion IMF deal to stabilize markets before midterms, while Pemex and Cemex navigate challenges and YPF launches institute...