Asia L/S Equity PM/Macro/Thematic Idea Generation

Rikki Malik

Commodities

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Rising US yields are no longer supporting the US Dollar</li>
<li>A move by the Japanese Government Pension Fund has massive implications for global markets</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Rising US yields are no longer supporting the US Dollar
A move by the Japanese Government Pension Fund has massive implications for global markets


Overview #68 – The Dog that Didn’t Bark

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook</li>
<li>Volatility continues in the AI and AI-adjacent trade  with large daily swings</li>
<li>Some clues as to future direction from risk-off days and incoming data</li>
</ul>


A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook
Volatility continues in the AI and AI-adjacent trade  with large daily swings
Some clues as to future direction from risk-off days and incoming data


Technical Analyst, Vermilion Research

Joe Jasper

Technical Analyst

Technical and Quantitative Research

Vermilion Research

Vermilion’s objective is to deliver timely, actionable, and unique technical research to professional investors through the application of our various technical indicators.

Our research strategists seek to highlight securities which we believe are at major inflection points, based on our various technical and quantitative indicators, and offer asymmetric risk/return profiles. Our unique research methodology, centered on relative strength, enables our strategists to deliver superior investment recommendations.

Our process begins by organizing the universe of actively traded stocks into discrete sectors, then into industry groups. We then apply our technical and quantitative tools to identify developing price trends. Once attractive trends are identified within a selected sector or group, we screen for individual stocks which we believe offer the best risk/reward profile. We provide a historical perspective that often reveals, through our long-term charts, how price patterns often repeat themselves over time.

Technical Analysis

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of 4/21/26) on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), and we recommended buying the pullback in our June 9 U.S. Macro Vision.</li>
<li>The IWM has begun to lead, hitting new all-time highs yesterday while SPX and QQQ consolidate below their early-June highs.</li>
<li>A new wrinkle is that the DXY is showing signs of breaking out, a risk-off signal. This gives us reason for pause, and suggests a potentially longer consolidation period.</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of 4/21/26) on the SPX, Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM), and we recommended buying the pullback in our June 9 U.S. Macro Vision.
The IWM has begun to lead, hitting new all-time highs yesterday while SPX and QQQ consolidate below their early-June highs.
A new wrinkle is that the DXY is showing signs of breaking out, a risk-off signal. This gives us reason for pause, and suggests a potentially longer consolidation period.


U.S. Dollar (DXY) Breakout a Reason for Concern?; Monitoring Semiconductors (SOXX) And Micron (MU)

<ul>
<li>We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).</li>
<li>Advance/Decline (A/D) lines for the QQQ and IWM also hit YTD highs over the past week, signaling this is a healthy, broad-based advance. </li>
<li>SPX and QQQ have refused to even close below their 8-day EMAs (a sign of a strongly trending market), while IWM tested its 20-day MA and $278 support level yesterday</li>
</ul>


We remain bullish (as of our 4/21/26 Compass) on the S&amp;P 500 (SPX), Nasdaq 100 (QQQ), and Russell 2000 (IWM).
Advance/Decline (A/D) lines for the QQQ and IWM also hit YTD highs over the past week, signaling this is a healthy, broad-based advance. 
SPX and QQQ have refused to even close below their 8-day EMAs (a sign of a strongly trending market), while IWM tested its 20-day MA and $278 support level yesterday


Downgrading Communications to Underweight; Buy/Stay Long SMH, CHAT, WGMI, BITQ, HYDR, NASA, REMX

Asian Economist

Kok Peng Chan

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>By tracking chip sales, sector earnings and ICT profit margins our analysis point to an early-to-mid-cycle AI expansion, not an AI-bubble about to implode</li>
<li>WSTS data show AI demand in a de-synchronised mode, revealing a multi-speed chip cycle with AI in the fast lane and legacy end-markets still digesting past booms</li>
<li>Tech and communication stocks dominate the S&amp;P 500, but unlike 1999 their market and earnings share are broadly matched, suggesting elevated but not irrational pricing provided AI monetisation holds up</li>
</ul>


By tracking chip sales, sector earnings and ICT profit margins our analysis point to an early-to-mid-cycle AI expansion, not an AI-bubble about to implode
WSTS data show AI demand in a de-synchronised mode, revealing a multi-speed chip cycle with AI in the fast lane and legacy end-markets still digesting past booms
Tech and communication stocks dominate the S&amp;P 500, but unlike 1999 their market and earnings share are broadly matched, suggesting elevated but not irrational pricing provided AI monetisation holds up


United States

The Philadelphia Semiconductor Index is a modified capitalization-weighted index comprised of companies that are involved in the design, distribution, manufacturing and sale of semiconductors. The index was developed with a base value of 100 as of december 1, 1993. Index methodology changed from Price-weighted as of 12/21/2009.

Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index (SOX INDEX)

Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index

Philadelphia Stock Exchange Semiconductor Index (SOX INDEX)

Overview #68 – The Dog that Didn’t Bark

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at what the recent rise in US government yields didn't affect,...

Rikki Malik

Overview #67 - Thin Air

A review of recent events/data impacting our investment themes and outlook. We look at the recent market action in the US as well as clues as to...

Rikki Malik

U.S. Dollar (DXY) Breakout a Reason for Concern?; Monitoring Semiconductors (SOXX) And Micron (MU)

U.S. Dollar (DXY) Breakout a Reason for Concern?; Monitoring Semiconductors $SOXX and Micron $MU; Focus Turning Away from Technology/A.I.

Vermilion Research

Downgrading Communications to Underweight; Buy/Stay Long SMH, CHAT, WGMI, BITQ, HYDR, NASA, REMX

Downgrading Communications $XLC to Underweight; Buy/Stay Long $SMH $CHAT $WGMI $BITQ $HYDR $NASA $REMX $ARKK $ARKW. Still Bullish since April 21

Vermilion Research

Tracking the AI Cycle : A Macro View

We provide a macro view and three indicators which investors can use to track the AI cycle. They are no where near a 1999 dot-com bubble scenario...

Kok Peng Chan