Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Equity Bottom-Up

People's Insurance (PICC) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/people-s-insurance-co-group-of-china-ltd-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:362:1" rel="noopener">People's Insurance (PICC) (1339 HK)</a> has bounced off its lifetime low implied stub and simple ratio (PICC/<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/picc-property-casualty-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:350:1" rel="noopener">PICC Property &amp; Casualty (2328 HK)</a>); but still trades below its historical trailing/forward metrics.</li>
<li>Preceding my comments on PICC are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.</li>
<li>These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.</li>
</ul>



People's Insurance (PICC) (1339 HK) has bounced off its lifetime low implied stub and simple ratio (PICC/PICC Property &amp; Casualty (2328 HK)); but still trades below its historical trailing/forward metrics.
Preceding my comments on PICC are the current setup/unwind tables for Asia-Pacific Holdcos.
These relationships trade with a minimum liquidity of US$1mn, and a % market capitalisation &gt;20%.


Equity Analyst, Event-driven, Quiddity Advisors

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

Equity Analyst, Event-driven

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.</li>
<li>In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSCEI index rebal event in June 2024.</li>
<li>Based on the current data, I see two low-conviction ADDs and two low-conviction DELs.</li>
</ul>


The HSCEI serves as a benchmark to reflect the overall performance of the top 50 "Mainland China" securities listed in Hong Kong.
In this insight, we take a look at the potential index changes and the resultant capping flows for HSCEI index rebal event in June 2024.
Based on the current data, I see two low-conviction ADDs and two low-conviction DELs.


Quiddity HSCEI Jun 24 Flow Expectations: Many Reasons to Follow the Developments Closely

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

Contemporary Amperex Technology (CATL) / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>We synthesize current and historical data on fund positioning with recent manager activity to accurately assess sentiment for each stock within our MSCI China coverage.</li>
<li>We have identified eight stocks that are currently positioned at the extreme ends of their historical position ranges, or have experienced significant shifts in fund ownership in recent months.</li>
<li>Momentum in Contemporary Amperex Technology and JD.com turns south, whilst Fuyao Glass Industry Group and Zhongji Innolight power to new highs.</li>
</ul>


We synthesize current and historical data on fund positioning with recent manager activity to accurately assess sentiment for each stock within our MSCI China coverage.
We have identified eight stocks that are currently positioned at the extreme ends of their historical position ranges, or have experienced significant shifts in fund ownership in recent months.
Momentum in Contemporary Amperex Technology and JD.com turns south, whilst Fuyao Glass Industry Group and Zhongji Innolight power to new highs.


MSCI China Funds:  Extremes in Positioning & Momentum

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Strong savings demand propelled a double-digit growth of cum. personal life premiums, which rose by 10.2% YoY in FY23, for the first time in three years amid the prolonged low-risk appetite.</li><li>Life premiums rose by 12.8% YoY to RMB2.76tn in FY23, posting the highest growth over the past three years although curving down a bit from the 7M23 peak (+15% YoY) after the pricing rate cut.</li><li>On a monthly basis, China Life (2628 HK) and CPIC (2601 HK) were the only two listed insurers turning positive to double-digit premium growth, by +13.0%/+16.7% YoY in Dec 2023, outpacing the industry level of +1.1% YoY.</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Strong savings demand propelled a double-digit growth of cum. personal life premiums, which rose by 10.2% YoY in FY23, for the first time in three years amid the prolonged low-risk appetite.Life premiums rose by 12.8% YoY to RMB2.76tn in FY23, posting the highest growth over the past three years although curving down a bit from the 7M23 peak (+15% YoY) after the pricing rate cut.On a monthly basis, China Life (2628 HK) and CPIC (2601 HK) were the only two listed insurers turning positive to double-digit premium growth, by +13.0%/+16.7% YoY in Dec 2023, outpacing the industry level of +1.1% YoY.Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Insurance - Life Premiums up by Double Digits for the First Time in 3 Years

Research and consultancy, Tabbush Report

Daniel Tabbush

Research and consultancy

Tabbush Report

We provide research and consultancy on Asian banks. Our focus is on what we call “Asian bank research, without the noise.” We are interested in the most critical swing-factors for banks, the NPL and credit cycle, and where we believe there is a gap between perception and reality. We often focus on the less studied components of bank financial statements.  Our research is highly thematic, sometimes examining unlisted banks and companies as a window on mainstream banks. 

Being independent allows us to look at smaller banks, often overlooked by others. Analysis of BIS bank guidelines in the context of Asia, is also a focal point, while we also analyze global banks operating in the region. We use what we believe is the most comprehensive, reliable financials database, SNL Financial. S&P Capital IQ augments our database, with corporate data and CEIC, with economics. 

Asian bank research, without the noise.

<ul>
<li>The earnings decline at <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/ping-an-insurance-group-co-of-c2975d60-47cd-4246-a7a6-25297586242b" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24682:1" rel="noopener">Ping An Insurance Group of (601318 CH)</a> is well in place for the past three years and including the last 12 months and YTD. </li>
<li>A worsening China should see accelerated weakness at Ping An Insurance: bond mark downs, less product sales, lower bank contribution, falling investment returns as rates are cut.</li>
<li>Earnings risk perspective: profit RMB79bn in LTM against bond holdings of RMB2,622bn putting its bonds/profit at 33x. Bonds to capital is 2.9x: book value risk too.</li>
</ul>


The earnings decline at Ping An Insurance Group of (601318 CH) is well in place for the past three years and including the last 12 months and YTD. 
A worsening China should see accelerated weakness at Ping An Insurance: bond mark downs, less product sales, lower bank contribution, falling investment returns as rates are cut.
Earnings risk perspective: profit RMB79bn in LTM against bond holdings of RMB2,622bn putting its bonds/profit at 33x. Bonds to capital is 2.9x: book value risk too.


Ping An Insurance - Worsening Profit for Some Years, Can Accelerate with Corporate Bond Impairments

China

PICC Property and Casualty Company Limited provides insurance services. The Company provides property loss insurances, liability insurances, credit insurances, accidental injury insurances, short term health insurances, guarantee insurances, and other insurance products. PICC Property and Casualty also operates investment businesses.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

PICC Property & Casualty H (2328 HK)

StubWorld: Stay Long PICC (1339 HK)

People's Insurance (PICC) (1339 HK) has bounced off its lifetime low implied stub and simple ratio (PICC/PICC P&C (2328 HK)); but still trades...

David Blennerhassett

Quiddity HSCEI Jun 24 Flow Expectations: Many Reasons to Follow the Developments Closely

The reference period for HSCEI June 2024 review ended on 31st March 2024 and my expectations for index changes remain unchanged since I published...

Janaghan Jeyakumar, CFA

MSCI China Funds: Extremes in Positioning & Momentum

Momentum in Contemporary Amperex Technology and JD.com turns south, whilst Fuyao Glass Industry Group and Zhongji Innolight power to new highs.

Steven Holden

Insurance - Life Premiums up by Double Digits for the First Time in 3 Years

Strong savings demand propelled a double-digit growth of cum. personal life premiums, which rose by 10.2% YoY in FY23, for the first time in three...

CMB International

Ping An Insurance - Worsening Profit for Some Years, Can Accelerate with Corporate Bond Impairments

Ping An Insurance can see meaningful risk to profit and book value from mark downs in its corporate bonds with a weak China economy.

Daniel Tabbush

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)