External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

PICC Property & Casualty H / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>PICC P&amp;C reported a strong 1Q25 earnings alert, with net profit expected to surge 80%-100% YoY to RMB10.6bn-11.7bn, implying a QoQ upswing of 95.3%-117% vs 4Q24.</li><li>1Q25 net profit represented more than one-third (33%-37%) of last year’s total net profit, driven by 1) a largely improved CoR with reduced catastrophic claims in 1Q25; and 2) optimized asset allocation structure shifting from the FVTPL to FVOCI, which helped smooth the volatilities from fair value movement to achieve steady investment income growth amid market fluctuations.</li><li>We estimate the 1Q25 CoR to arrive at less than 95%, and adjust the auto/non-auto CoR to 95.9%/99.0% (prev.96.0%/98.9% report) in FY25E, thanks to stringent expense controls and an improved non-auto UW structure. </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

PICC P&amp;C reported a strong 1Q25 earnings alert, with net profit expected to surge 80%-100% YoY to RMB10.6bn-11.7bn, implying a QoQ upswing of 95.3%-117% vs 4Q24.1Q25 net profit represented more than one-third (33%-37%) of last year’s total net profit, driven by 1) a largely improved CoR with reduced catastrophic claims in 1Q25; and 2) optimized asset allocation structure shifting from the FVTPL to FVOCI, which helped smooth the volatilities from fair value movement to achieve steady investment income growth amid market fluctuations.We estimate the 1Q25 CoR to arrive at less than 95%, and adjust the auto/non-auto CoR to 95.9%/99.0% (prev.96.0%/98.9% report) in FY25E, thanks to stringent expense controls and an improved non-auto UW structure. Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

PICC P&C (2328 HK) - 1Q25 CoR Outperformed

<ul><li>PICC P&amp;C’s full-year CoR missed, yet FY25E guidance beat. FY24 net profit amounted to RMB 32.2bn, up by 30.9% YoY, in line with our forecast.</li><li>Fullyear CoR was worse off to 98.8%, +1.0pct YoY due to a rise of loss ratio (+2.4pct) more than offset an optimized expense ratio (-1.4pct) to 73%/25.8% respectively.</li><li>Auto CoR was 96.8%, down 0.1pct YoY, meeting the &lt;97% year-start guidance, thanks to a better expense ratio (-2.3pct) offsetting the climb of claims (+2.2pct).</li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

PICC P&amp;C’s full-year CoR missed, yet FY25E guidance beat. FY24 net profit amounted to RMB 32.2bn, up by 30.9% YoY, in line with our forecast.Fullyear CoR was worse off to 98.8%, +1.0pct YoY due to a rise of loss ratio (+2.4pct) more than offset an optimized expense ratio (-1.4pct) to 73%/25.8% respectively.Auto CoR was 96.8%, down 0.1pct YoY, meeting the &lt;97% year-start guidance, thanks to a better expense ratio (-2.3pct) offsetting the climb of claims (+2.2pct).Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

PICC P&C (2328 HK) - Optimized CoR guidance beat expectations

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes back above US$13bn a day this past 4-day week. Net buying back below US$500mm/day.</li>
<li>Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS, ENERGY, TELECOMS stand out, dramatically. Among top sells, it is INFO TECH again. 8 weeks in a row negative.</li>
<li>The data tables below update on a daily basis in the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools" target="_blank" rel="noopener">Tools</a> section of Smartkarma. The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/south-flow-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/tools/quiddity/ah-shares-monitor" target="_blank" rel="noopener">AH Monitor</a> are both there free for SK readers.</li>
</ul>


Gross SOUTHBOUND volumes back above US$13bn a day this past 4-day week. Net buying back below US$500mm/day.
Among the top buys as a percentage of volume, FINANCIALS, ENERGY, TELECOMS stand out, dramatically. Among top sells, it is INFO TECH again. 8 weeks in a row negative.
The data tables below update on a daily basis in the Tools section of Smartkarma. The SOUTHBOUND Flow Monitor and AH Monitor are both there free for SK readers.


HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 6 June 2025); Volumes Up, Tech Down, ENERGY Bought Big

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Hong Kong market quietly broke its downward trend channel last week, however the HSI met strong resistance at 18200 (100 Week Moving Average).</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/picc-property-casualty-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:350:1" rel="noopener">PICC Property &amp; Casualty H (2328 HK)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-petroleum-chemical-h" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:369:1" rel="noopener">China Petroleum &amp; Chemical (386 HK)</a> broke to new highs relative to MSCI indices.  Sinopec may benefit from stronger RMB in 2H24.
</li>
<li><a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/shenzhou-intl-group-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:10415:1" rel="noopener">Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK)</a> had a short-term turnaround from its downtrend.  The company reported growth in sales and better margins in 2Q24.</li>
</ul>


Hong Kong market quietly broke its downward trend channel last week, however the HSI met strong resistance at 18200 (100 Week Moving Average).

PICC Property &amp; Casualty H (2328 HK) and China Petroleum &amp; Chemical (386 HK) broke to new highs relative to MSCI indices.  Sinopec may benefit from stronger RMB in 2H24.

Shenzhou Intl Group Holdings (2313 HK) had a short-term turnaround from its downtrend.  The company reported growth in sales and better margins in 2Q24.


Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (SEPTEMBER 3)

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning, Copley Fund Research

Steven Holden

Asset Allocation & Fund Positioning

Copley Fund Research

Copley Fund Research provide research and data on asset allocation among Global and Emerging Market equity funds.  The analysis details absolute and relative positioning across countries, sectors and industries together with highly granular data on single stock and single fund allocations.  The data is updated monthly with time series going back to January 2011.

Global Research - Analysis of 165 prominent Global equity funds, combined AUM $335bn
GEM Research - Analysis of 127 prominent global EM equity funds, combined AUM $250bn

Asset Allocation - Global and GEM Equity

<ul>
<li>Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Though Sentiment Fragile for Both.</li>
<li>Energy sector shows signs of a turnaround from long-term decline, whilst Financials remain unloved by China investors.</li>
<li>Real Estate allocations have hit record lows, with average holdings at just 2.93%, while Consumer Discretionary sector approaches all-time highs.</li>
</ul>


Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Though Sentiment Fragile for Both.
Energy sector shows signs of a turnaround from long-term decline, whilst Financials remain unloved by China investors.
Real Estate allocations have hit record lows, with average holdings at just 2.93%, while Consumer Discretionary sector approaches all-time highs.


China

PICC Property and Casualty Company Limited provides insurance services. The Company provides property loss insurances, liability insurances, credit insurances, accidental injury insurances, short term health insurances, guarantee insurances, and other insurance products. PICC Property and Casualty also operates investment businesses.

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PICC Property & Casualty H (2328 HK)

PICC P&C (2328 HK) - 1Q25 CoR Outperformed

PICC P&C reported a strong 1Q25 earnings alert, with net profit expected to surge 80%-100% YoY to RMB10.6bn-11.7bn, implying a QoQ upswing of 95.3%...

CMB International

PICC P&C (2328 HK) - Optimized CoR guidance beat expectations

PICC P&C’s full-year CoR missed, yet FY25E guidance beat. FY24 net profit amounted to RMB 32.2bn, up by 30.9% YoY, in line with our forecast.

CMB International

HK Connect SOUTHBOUND Flows (To 6 June 2025); Volumes Up, Tech Down, ENERGY Bought Big

SOUTHBOUND bought another HK$14bn+ last week in the four-day week. ENERGY was big again, as was CONSUMER DISC though some of the latter was index...

Travis Lundy

Technically Speaking, Breakouts and Breakdowns: HONG KONG (SEPTEMBER 3)

Hong Kong market broke its downtrend however it met strong resistance just above 18k. PICC and Sinopec broke to new highs relative to MSCI...

David Mudd

China Macro: Sector Positioning Update

Sector positioning among active China Funds. Industrials and Consumer Staples Remain Top Overweights, Energy shows signs of a turnaround, whilst...

Steven Holden

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