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<ul><li>The US-Australia critical minerals investment agreement has driven lithium miner Pilbara Minerals&rsquo; share price on sentiment, well above fundamentals, on most assessments.</li><li> US-Australia critical minerals deal sends miner share prices surging Pilbara Minerals posts solid September quarter beat Lithium prices remain below new production threshold Most brokers see Pilbara Minerals as overvalued</li></ul>

The US-Australia critical minerals investment agreement has driven lithium miner Pilbara Minerals&rsquo; share price on sentiment, well above fundamentals, on most assessments. US-Australia critical minerals deal sends miner share prices surging Pilbara Minerals posts solid September quarter beat Lithium prices remain below new production threshold Most brokers see Pilbara Minerals as overvalued

Valuation vs Sentiment For Pilbara Minerals

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mineral-resources-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:15103:1" rel="noopener">Mineral Resources (MIN AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pilbara-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7460:1" rel="noopener">Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU)</a> will be deleted from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-vectors-australian-equal-weight-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:24297:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Vectors Australian Equal Weight ETF (MVW AU)</a> after the close on 20 June.</li>
<li>The two deletions, capping and float changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.03% at the rebalance. That leads to a round-trip trade of A$294m.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pilbara-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7460:1" rel="noopener">Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU)</a> is also a deletion from the S&amp;P/ASX 50 Index at the same time and there will be more passive selling from those trackers.</li>
</ul>



Mineral Resources (MIN AU) and Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) will be deleted from the VanEck Vectors Australian Equal Weight ETF (MVW AU) after the close on 20 June.
The two deletions, capping and float changes result in a one-way turnover of 5.03% at the rebalance. That leads to a round-trip trade of A$294m.

Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) is also a deletion from the S&amp;P/ASX 50 Index at the same time and there will be more passive selling from those trackers.


MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: MinRes, Pilbara Deleted as Trade Nears A$300m

<ul>
<li>With the review period complete, we forecast no inclusions to the index in June. There could be up to 3 deletions at the review though.</li>
<li>Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3.9% and a round-trip trade of A$216m.</li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pilbara-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7460:1" rel="noopener">Pilbara Minerals</a> is a potential deletion from the S&amp;P/ASX 50 Index with implementation on the same date. Shorts have been covering but short interest is a big percentage of float.</li>
</ul>


With the review period complete, we forecast no inclusions to the index in June. There could be up to 3 deletions at the review though.
Even if there are no constituent changes, capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3.9% and a round-trip trade of A$216m.

Pilbara Minerals is a potential deletion from the S&amp;P/ASX 50 Index with implementation on the same date. Shorts have been covering but short interest is a big percentage of float.


MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Deletions in June

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/standard-lithium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38824:1" rel="noopener">Standard Lithium (SLI US)</a> will be deleted from the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-rare-earth-strategic-me" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32320:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US)</a> at the close of trading on 21 March.</li>
<li>The constituent change, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 8.9% and in a round-trip trade of US$61m.</li>
<li>The largest inflows will be in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/pilbara-minerals-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7460:1" rel="noopener">Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/albemarle-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:7678:1" rel="noopener">Albemarle (ALB US)</a> while there will be outflows from <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mp-materials-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:33108:1" rel="noopener">MP Materials (MP US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/lynas-corp-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20374:1" rel="noopener">Lynas Corp (LYC AU)</a>.</li>
</ul>



Standard Lithium (SLI US) will be deleted from the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US) at the close of trading on 21 March.
The constituent change, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 8.9% and in a round-trip trade of US$61m.
The largest inflows will be in Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU) and Albemarle (ALB US) while there will be outflows from MP Materials (MP US) and Lynas Corp (LYC AU).


MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Delete & Other Changes

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/almonty-industries-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:23864:1" rel="noopener">Almonty Industries (AII CN)</a>, <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/standard-lithium-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:38824:1" rel="noopener">Standard Lithium (SLI US)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hubei-zhenhua-chemical-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30013:1" rel="noopener">Hubei Zhenhua Chemical Co Ltd (603067 CH)</a> will be added to the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-rare-earth-strategic-me" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32320:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US)</a> in December.</li>
<li>The constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 18.2% and in a round-trip trade of US$550m.</li>
<li>There have been large creations in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/vaneck-rare-earth-strategic-me" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:32320:1" rel="noopener">VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US)</a> as strategic metals and rare earths stocks have surged in price over the last few months.</li>
</ul>



Almonty Industries (AII CN), Standard Lithium (SLI US) and Hubei Zhenhua Chemical Co Ltd (603067 CH) will be added to the VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US) in December.
The constituent changes, float changes and capping changes result in an estimated one-way turnover of 18.2% and in a round-trip trade of US$550m.
There have been large creations in VanEck Rare Earth/Strategic Me (REMX US) as strategic metals and rare earths stocks have surged in price over the last few months.


MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: 3 Adds and Other Changes; US$550m Trade

Australia

Pilbara Minerals Ltd. is a mineral exploration company. The Company owns mineral tenements in the west Pilbara region of Western Australia where it explores for iron ore, gold and base metals, particularly copper and nickel.

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Pilbara Minerals (PLS AU)

Valuation vs Sentiment For Pilbara Minerals

The US-Australia critical minerals investment agreement has driven lithium miner Pilbara Minerals’ share price on sentiment, well above...

FNArena

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: MinRes, Pilbara Deleted as Trade Nears A$300m

MinRes and Pilbara Minerals will be deleted on 20 June. Turnover is estimated at 5.03% and the round-trip trade is A$294m. Short interest is high...

Brian Freitas

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Deletions in June

We do not forecast any inclusions but there could be 3 deletions. Just capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3.9% and a round-trip trade...

Brian Freitas

MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Delete & Other Changes

Standard Lithium is a delete. Estimated one-way turnover of 8.9% results in a round-trip trade of US$61m. Pilbara Minerals is a passive buy...

Brian Freitas

MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: 3 Adds and Other Changes; US$550m Trade

There are 3 adds for the REMX in Dec. Estimated one-way turnover is 18.2% and round-trip trade is US$550m. There have been big creations in REMX...

Brian Freitas

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Valuation vs Sentiment For Pilbara Minerals

The US-Australia critical minerals investment agreement has driven lithium miner Pilbara Minerals’ share price on sentiment, well above...

FNArena

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance: MinRes, Pilbara Deleted as Trade Nears A$300m

MinRes and Pilbara Minerals will be deleted on 20 June. Turnover is estimated at 5.03% and the round-trip trade is A$294m. Short interest is high...

Brian Freitas

MV Australia Equal Weight Index Rebalance Preview: Three Potential Deletions in June

We do not forecast any inclusions but there could be 3 deletions. Just capping changes will lead to one-way turnover of 3.9% and a round-trip trade...

Brian Freitas

MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Delete & Other Changes

Standard Lithium is a delete. Estimated one-way turnover of 8.9% results in a round-trip trade of US$61m. Pilbara Minerals is a passive buy...

Brian Freitas

MV Global Rare Earth/​​​​​Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: 3 Adds and Other Changes; US$550m Trade

There are 3 adds for the REMX in Dec. Estimated one-way turnover is 18.2% and round-trip trade is US$550m. There have been big creations in REMX...

Brian Freitas

MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: One Delete & Other Changes

MV Global Rare Earth/Strategic Metals Index Rebalance: 3 Adds and Other Changes; US$550m Trade