IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

Evergrande Property Services Group / Event-Driven

Evergrande Property Services Group (6666 HK)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/evergrande-property-services" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:30921:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK)</a> is in a trading halt “pending the release of an announcement pursuant to the Code on Takeovers and Mergers which contains inside information of the Company.” </li>
<li>The trading halt likely relates to <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/china-evergrande-group" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:479:1" rel="noopener">Evergrande (3333 HK)</a> liquidators’ efforts to sell Evergrande Group’s majority interest in Evergrande Services.</li>
<li>The sale is likely to trigger an unconditional mandatory general offer. I estimate the potential offer price to be around HK$1.08 per share, a 17.8% premium to the last close.</li>
</ul>



Evergrande Property Services (6666 HK) is in a trading halt “pending the release of an announcement pursuant to the Code on Takeovers and Mergers which contains inside information of the Company.” 
The trading halt likely relates to Evergrande (3333 HK) liquidators’ efforts to sell Evergrande Group’s majority interest in Evergrande Services.
The sale is likely to trigger an unconditional mandatory general offer. I estimate the potential offer price to be around HK$1.08 per share, a 17.8% premium to the last close.


Evergrande Services (6666 HK): Liquidation of Evergrande’s Stake to Trigger an Unconditional MGO?

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Equity Bottom-Up

Poly Property Services / Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The company’s 1H25 net profit was +5.3% YoY (in-line with market expectation of mid-single-digit growth).</li><li>Total revenue grew 6.6% YoY, with resilient basic PM growth (+13.1% YoY) driven by third-party projects and commercial/office projects.</li><li>The company delivered strong third-party expansion growth (annualized contracts +17.2% YoY to RMB 1.4bn), particularly in residential (+32.2% YoY) and commercial/office (+18.7% YoY). </li></ul>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

The company’s 1H25 net profit was +5.3% YoY (in-line with market expectation of mid-single-digit growth).Total revenue grew 6.6% YoY, with resilient basic PM growth (+13.1% YoY) driven by third-party projects and commercial/office projects.The company delivered strong third-party expansion growth (annualized contracts +17.2% YoY to RMB 1.4bn), particularly in residential (+32.2% YoY) and commercial/office (+18.7% YoY). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Poly Services (6049 HK) - 1H25 Earnings in Line; No Interim Dividend

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>We see 28 potential and close adds and 34 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.</li>
<li>A lot of the potential adds are very recently listed stocks that have a limited trading history. The low free float could lead to price spikes in the stocks.</li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 28 potential and close adds and 34 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
A lot of the potential adds are very recently listed stocks that have a limited trading history. The low free float could lead to price spikes in the stocks.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect (Sep 2025): Plenty of Recent IPOs Could Be Added

Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals / Index Rebalance

Jiangsu Hengrui Pharmaceuticals (1276 HK)

<ul>
<li>We see 21 potential and close adds and 34 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.</li>
<li>There have been some big listings in the last couple of months and those stocks should be added to the index in September. That increases the number of potential deletions.</li>
<li>There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.</li>
</ul>


We see 21 potential and close adds and 34 potential and close deletes for the Hang Seng Composite Index in September. Some of the stocks are close on market cap/liquidity.
There have been some big listings in the last couple of months and those stocks should be added to the index in September. That increases the number of potential deletions.
There are stocks that have a very high percentage of holdings via Stock Connect and there could be some unwinding prior to the stocks becoming Sell-only.


HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September 2025

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal, Shenton Research

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Asia Pac ECM and Index Rebal

Asia Pac IPO & Placement Research, China Biotech

DZT Research

DZT Research is an independent Asia Pacific equity specialist. Our quantitative research covers index rebalancing flows, alongside exchange data analytics accross Asia Pacific. On the equity capital markets side, we focus on Asia Pacific ECM, especially biotech and TMT. Our lead analyst is frequently cited by international media.

Quantitative Analysis

<ul>
<li>We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.</li>
<li>We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.</li>
<li>We highlight flows of Alibaba, TraHK HSI ETF, Tencent, Meituan, HSCEI ETF.</li>
</ul>


We analyze the monthly Hong Kong Connect flows with our data engine.
We tabulate the top stocks by inflows, outflows, and holding by mainland investors.
We highlight flows of Alibaba, TraHK HSI ETF, Tencent, Meituan, HSCEI ETF.


Hong Kong Connect Flows (April): US$22bn Inflows

China

Poly Property Services is a China-based company primarily engaged in providing property management services, community value-added services, and value-added services to non-property owners. Its property management services encompass security, cleaning, greening, gardening, and maintenance for property owners, residents, and developers. The company was established on June 26, 1996, and is headquartered in Guangzhou, China.

Price Gauge
52-week Range	0.00 - 0.00
Market Cap (USDm)	0.00
P/E	0.00
Dividend (Yield)	0.00

Poly Property Services (6049 HK)

Evergrande Services (6666 HK): Liquidation of Evergrande’s Stake to Trigger an Unconditional MGO?

The trading halt likely relates to Evergrande liquidators’ efforts to sell Evergrande Group’s majority interest in Evergrande Services, which could...

Arun George

Poly Services (6049 HK) - 1H25 Earnings in Line; No Interim Dividend

The company delivered strong third-party expansion growth (annualized contracts +17.2% YoY to RMB 1.4bn), particularly in residential (+32.2% YoY)...

CMB International

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect (Sep 2025): Plenty of Recent IPOs Could Be Added

The forecast adds to the index and Stock Connect are up 9.7% on average this month while the forecast deletes from the index and Stock Connect are...

Brian Freitas

HSCI Index Rebalance Preview and Stock Connect: Potential Changes in September 2025

There could be 55 changes for the HSCI in September. That could result in 46 changes to the Southbound Stock Connect list and also have...

Brian Freitas

Hong Kong Connect Flows (April): US$22bn Inflows

We analyzed the Hong Kong Connect Scheme for April and highlighted flows for Alibaba, TraHK HSI ETF, Tencent, Meituan, HSCEI ETF.

Ke Yan, CFA, FRM

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)