European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>The discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have all tightened during November. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 47.1% (vs. 47.8%); GBL, 34.9% (vs. 35.5%); Heineken Holding, 14.5% (vs. 14.9%);</li>
<li>Industrivärden C, 4.9% (vs. 6%); Investor B, 14.6% (vs. 16.5%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 39.9% (vs. 40.9%). The spread of Rio DLC tightened to 17.2% (vs. 21%).</li>
<li>What seems interesting: holding trades, Heineken Holding vs. Heineken, Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC: long RIO LN/short RIO AU.</li>
</ul>


The discounts to NAV of covered holdcos have all tightened during November. Discounts to NAV: C.F.Alba, 47.1% (vs. 47.8%); GBL, 34.9% (vs. 35.5%); Heineken Holding, 14.5% (vs. 14.9%);
Industrivärden C, 4.9% (vs. 6%); Investor B, 14.6% (vs. 16.5%); Porsche Automobile Holding, 39.9% (vs. 40.9%). The spread of Rio DLC tightened to 17.2% (vs. 21%).
What seems interesting: holding trades, Heineken Holding vs. Heineken, Porsche SE/vs. listed assets and the Rio DLC: long RIO LN/short RIO AU.


Selected European HoldCos and DLC: November’23 Report

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

David Blennerhassett

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>A holistic view of the three different documents here suggests the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/denso-corp" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:18703:1" rel="noopener">Denso Corp (6902 JP)</a> buyback, indeed, "It was a trap".</li>
<li>3D Investment Partners raised its stake in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/sapporo-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:14085:1" rel="noopener">Sapporo Holdings (2501 JP)</a>,  suggesting the activist investor is optimistic about successfully advancing their proposals.</li>
<li>A firm merger proposal is expected for <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/hollysys-automation-technologies" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26078:1" rel="noopener">Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US)</a> in the next couple of weeks. Time to buy.</li>
</ul>


A holistic view of the three different documents here suggests the Denso Corp (6902 JP) buyback, indeed, "It was a trap".
3D Investment Partners raised its stake in Sapporo Holdings (2501 JP),  suggesting the activist investor is optimistic about successfully advancing their proposals.
A firm merger proposal is expected for Hollysys Automation Technologies (HOLI US) in the next couple of weeks. Time to buy.


Last Week in Event SPACE: Denso, Sapporo, Hollysys, PCCW, Origin Energy

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zeekr-intelligent-technology-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36785:1" rel="noopener">ZEEKR (ZK US)</a>, a premium EV brand by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:127:1" rel="noopener">Geely Auto (175 HK)</a>, aims to raise around US$500m in its US listing.</li>
<li>Zeekr was formed in Mar 2021 as a JV between Geely and its founder. Its first model was launched in Apr 21 with deliveries starting in Oct 21.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the updates from its recent filings.</li>
</ul>



ZEEKR (ZK US), a premium EV brand by Geely Auto (175 HK), aims to raise around US$500m in its US listing.
Zeekr was formed in Mar 2021 as a JV between Geely and its founder. Its first model was launched in Apr 21 with deliveries starting in Oct 21.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and valuations in our earlier notes. In this note, we talk about the updates from its recent filings.


Zeekr Pre-IPO - Quick Note - Recent Filing Updates - 007, Earnings on Track

Porsche Automobil Holding  / Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>My updated SOTP shows that <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/porsche-automobil-holding-se" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:21691:1" rel="noopener">Porsche Automobil Holding (PAH3 GR)</a> is trading at a still massive 41.2% discount/NAV, implying that Porsche SE is liable for c. €6.5 billion legal claims, maybe too harsh.</li>
<li>Recent rulings have been favourable. The discount is partly due to capital allocation leaning towards debt servicing. Porsche SE is trading at 2024e 2.6x Fwd P/E and 7.3% dividend yield.</li>
<li>Porsche SE presents an attractive opportunity to gain exposure to Volkswagen and Porsche AG through a discounted and levered investment. Discount to NAV should systematically decrease.</li>
</ul>


My updated SOTP shows that Porsche Automobil Holding (PAH3 GR) is trading at a still massive 41.2% discount/NAV, implying that Porsche SE is liable for c. €6.5 billion legal claims, maybe too harsh.
Recent rulings have been favourable. The discount is partly due to capital allocation leaning towards debt servicing. Porsche SE is trading at 2024e 2.6x Fwd P/E and 7.3% dividend yield.
Porsche SE presents an attractive opportunity to gain exposure to Volkswagen and Porsche AG through a discounted and levered investment. Discount to NAV should systematically decrease.


Porsche Automobile Holding: Q3 and Discount

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/zeekr-intelligent-technology-holding" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36785:1" rel="noopener">ZEEKR (ZK US)</a>, a premium EV brand by <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/geely-automobile-holdings-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:127:1" rel="noopener">Geely Auto (175 HK)</a>, aims to raise around US$500m in its US listing.</li>
<li>Zeekr was formed in Mar 2021 as a JV between Geely and its founder. Its first model was launched in Apr 21 with deliveries starting in Oct 21.</li>
<li>We have looked at the company’s past performance and undertaken a peer comparison in our earlier notes. In this note, we will talk about valuations.</li>
</ul>



ZEEKR (ZK US), a premium EV brand by Geely Auto (175 HK), aims to raise around US$500m in its US listing.
Zeekr was formed in Mar 2021 as a JV between Geely and its founder. Its first model was launched in Apr 21 with deliveries starting in Oct 21.
We have looked at the company’s past performance and undertaken a peer comparison in our earlier notes. In this note, we will talk about valuations.


Germany

Porsche Automobil Holding SE is a holding company. The Company, through its subsidiaries, offers development, production, and sale of automobiles along with financial services. Porsche operates worldwide.

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Porsche Automobil Holding (PAH3 GR)

Selected European HoldCos and DLC: November’23 Report

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos tightened in November. Interesting trades, in my view, include Heineken Holding vs. Heineken, Porsche SE vs....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Denso, Sapporo, Hollysys, PCCW, Origin Energy

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Zeekr Pre-IPO - Quick Note - Recent Filing Updates - 007, Earnings on Track

ZEEKR (ZK US), a premium EV brand by Geely Auto (175 HK), aims to raise around US$500m in its US listing. In this note, we talk about the updates...

Sumeet Singh

Porsche Automobile Holding: Q3 and Discount

Porsche SE trades at 41.2% discount/NAV, possibly due to €6.5 billion legal claims. Recent rulings have been favorable, making it an attractive...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Zeekr Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation

ZEEKR (ZK US), a premium EV brand by Geely Auto (175 HK), aims to raise around US$500m in its US listing. In this note, we talk about valautions.

Sumeet Singh

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52-week Range

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Selected European HoldCos and DLC: November’23 Report

​Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos tightened in November. Interesting trades, in my view, include Heineken Holding vs. Heineken, Porsche SE vs....

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Last Week in Event SPACE: Denso, Sapporo, Hollysys, PCCW, Origin Energy

The weekend is here! Pour yourself a coffee, grab a comfortable seat, and sift through a brief summary of insights on various events discussed...

David Blennerhassett

Zeekr Pre-IPO - Quick Note - Recent Filing Updates - 007, Earnings on Track

ZEEKR (ZK US), a premium EV brand by Geely Auto (175 HK), aims to raise around US$500m in its US listing. In this note, we talk about the updates...

Sumeet Singh

Porsche Automobile Holding: Q3 and Discount

​Porsche SE trades at 41.2% discount/NAV, possibly due to €6.5 billion legal claims. Recent rulings have been favorable, making it an attractive...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Zeekr Pre-IPO - Thoughts on Valuation

ZEEKR (ZK US), a premium EV brand by Geely Auto (175 HK), aims to raise around US$500m in its US listing. In this note, we talk about valautions.

Sumeet Singh

Discounts to NAV of covered holdcos tightened in November. Interesting trades, in my view, include Heineken Holding vs. Heineken, Porsche SE vs....

Porsche SE trades at 41.2% discount/NAV, possibly due to €6.5 billion legal claims. Recent rulings have been favorable, making it an attractive...