New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>The favourable pricing backdrop for Port of Tauranga (POT) continues, with the company set to materially increase its access pricing at MetroPort from 1 September 2025.</li><li>POT currently trades at ~19x one-year forward EV/EBITDA, which appears consistent with its post-COVID history on a bond rate-adjusted basis.</li><li>Our revised NPAT forecast for FY26 implies +19% growth on FY25, driven almost entirely by pricing initiatives.</li></ul>

The favourable pricing backdrop for Port of Tauranga (POT) continues, with the company set to materially increase its access pricing at MetroPort from 1 September 2025.POT currently trades at ~19x one-year forward EV/EBITDA, which appears consistent with its post-COVID history on a bond rate-adjusted basis.Our revised NPAT forecast for FY26 implies +19% growth on FY25, driven almost entirely by pricing initiatives.

<ul><li>Port of Tauranga's new tariff schedule for FY26 indicates continued pricing momentum with expected unit-container revenue to increase by ~8% in FY26.</li><li>The infrastructure levy will double, and a modest bulk truck-access charge will be introduced, supporting robust near-term earnings growth.</li><li>The firm is projected to achieve +20% NPAT growth in FY25 and +15% in FY26, with ROIC expected to exceed WACC by FY28.</li></ul>

Port of Tauranga's new tariff schedule for FY26 indicates continued pricing momentum with expected unit-container revenue to increase by ~8% in FY26.The infrastructure levy will double, and a modest bulk truck-access charge will be introduced, supporting robust near-term earnings growth.The firm is projected to achieve +20% NPAT growth in FY25 and +15% in FY26, with ROIC expected to exceed WACC by FY28.

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

<ul>
<li>
<a target="_blank">ICTSI (ICT PM)</a> and <a target="_blank">Westports Holdings (WPRTS MK)</a> have reported strong results, which we will summarize. </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asian-terminals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22959:1" rel="noopener">Asian Terminals (ATI PM)</a> made three large share buyback transactions in August, which we will highlight. The company is due to report its Q2 results soon. </li>
<li>Our preference is, in order of priority, <a target="_blank">Asian Terminals (ATI PM)</a>/<a target="_blank">ICTSI (ICT PM)</a> and <a target="_blank">Westports Holdings (WPRTS MK)</a>.</li>
</ul>



ICTSI (ICT PM) and Westports Holdings (WPRTS MK) have reported strong results, which we will summarize. 

Asian Terminals (ATI PM) made three large share buyback transactions in August, which we will highlight. The company is due to report its Q2 results soon. 
Our preference is, in order of priority, Asian Terminals (ATI PM)/ICTSI (ICT PM) and Westports Holdings (WPRTS MK).


Container Port Terminal Screener August 2025: Strong Q2 Results Season

<ul><li>Port of Tauranga (POT) reported a strong first half result with a 27% increase in underlying NPAT to NZ$60.2m, exceeding expectations.</li><li>FY25 NPAT guidance has been upgraded to NZ$115m-NZ$125m, indicating potential for a modest lift in market expectations.</li><li>Trade volumes improved by 6.9%, with container volumes up 10.2% despite declines at MetroPort, and robust gains in non-log bulk volumes.</li></ul>

Port of Tauranga (POT) reported a strong first half result with a 27% increase in underlying NPAT to NZ$60.2m, exceeding expectations.FY25 NPAT guidance has been upgraded to NZ$115m-NZ$125m, indicating potential for a modest lift in market expectations.Trade volumes improved by 6.9%, with container volumes up 10.2% despite declines at MetroPort, and robust gains in non-log bulk volumes.

Port of Tauranga (POT.NZ) - 1H25 Result Initial Thoughts

<ul><li>Port of Tauranga (POT) reported a strong 1H25 result and upgraded full-year earnings guidance. Management has reiterated its 7%+ return on invested capital target, which implies robust earnings growth over the medium term.</li><li>We expect this to be primarily driven by pricing, given competition and a capacity-constrained container volume outlook, as well as a bulk trade anchored by mid-range log exports.</li><li>The capacity constraints at Sulphur Point will only be resolved when the Southern Berth extension is completed in FY28 (at the earliest). </li></ul>

Port of Tauranga (POT) reported a strong 1H25 result and upgraded full-year earnings guidance. Management has reiterated its 7%+ return on invested capital target, which implies robust earnings growth over the medium term.We expect this to be primarily driven by pricing, given competition and a capacity-constrained container volume outlook, as well as a bulk trade anchored by mid-range log exports.The capacity constraints at Sulphur Point will only be resolved when the Southern Berth extension is completed in FY28 (at the earliest). 

Port of Tauranga - 1H25—Acceptable Returns on the Horizon

New Zealand

Port of Tauranga Limited activities include the provision of wharf facilities, back up land for the storage and transit of import and export cargo, berthage, cranes, tug and pilotage services for exporters, importers and shipping companies and the leasing of land and buildings.  The Group also operates a container terminal and has bulk cargo marshalling operations.

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Port of Tauranga (POT NZ)

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