New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>Port of Tauranga (POT) will report a strong 1H25 result on 28 February 2025. We expect underlying NPAT growth of +23%, albeit against a relatively weak prior period.</li><li>Growth will be driven by a combination of improved trade volumes, particularly containers, higher marine income from more vessels and price increases, and lower unit rail costs for MetroPort containers given enhanced service utilisation.</li><li>Overall unit pricing growth in this period is likely to be small, reflective of adverse mix and the timing of container-shipping customer contract renewals. </li></ul>

Port of Tauranga (POT) will report a strong 1H25 result on 28 February 2025. We expect underlying NPAT growth of +23%, albeit against a relatively weak prior period.Growth will be driven by a combination of improved trade volumes, particularly containers, higher marine income from more vessels and price increases, and lower unit rail costs for MetroPort containers given enhanced service utilisation.Overall unit pricing growth in this period is likely to be small, reflective of adverse mix and the timing of container-shipping customer contract renewals. 

Port of Tauranga - 1H25 Preview—Full Steam Ahead

<ul><li>We downgrade our rating on Port of Tauranga (POT) to NEUTRAL from OUTPERFORM to reflect its material recent multiple rerating.</li><li> POT's one-year forward EV/EBITDA multiple now appears fair on a bond-rate-adjusted basis relative to its trading history, and its EV/IC (of ~1.8x) appears full relative to its current sub-WACC ROIC.</li><li>While attractive forward earnings growth supports a positive investment outlook for POT, we believe the balance of earnings risk now lies more to the down rather than upside due to elevated port pricing expectations.</li></ul>

We downgrade our rating on Port of Tauranga (POT) to NEUTRAL from OUTPERFORM to reflect its material recent multiple rerating. POT's one-year forward EV/EBITDA multiple now appears fair on a bond-rate-adjusted basis relative to its trading history, and its EV/IC (of ~1.8x) appears full relative to its current sub-WACC ROIC.While attractive forward earnings growth supports a positive investment outlook for POT, we believe the balance of earnings risk now lies more to the down rather than upside due to elevated port pricing expectations.

Port of Tauranga - Tidal Valuation Shift Closes Multiple Gap

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

<ul>
<li>Reports now out that the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mmc-port-holdings-berhad" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45442:1" rel="noopener">MMC Port Holdings Berhad (2436494D MK)</a> IPO could be delayed by <a href="https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/768094" target="_blank" rel="noopener">some months</a>, as issues have arisen due to the lofty valuations.  </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/port-of-tauranga-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3739:1" rel="noopener">Port of Tauranga (POT NZ)</a> reported strong results for FY25, and we expect strong guidance at its AGM in October for FY26. </li>
<li>We continue to favor <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intl-container-term-svcs-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20001:1" rel="noopener">ICTSI (ICT PM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asian-terminals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22959:1" rel="noopener">Asian Terminals (ATI PM)</a> due to their duopoly position and control over pricing.</li>
</ul>


Reports now out that the MMC Port Holdings Berhad (2436494D MK) IPO could be delayed by some months, as issues have arisen due to the lofty valuations.  

Port of Tauranga (POT NZ) reported strong results for FY25, and we expect strong guidance at its AGM in October for FY26. 
We continue to favor ICTSI (ICT PM) and Asian Terminals (ATI PM) due to their duopoly position and control over pricing.


Container Port Terminal Screener September 2025: Strong Result For POT NZ

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Equity Capital Markets

Auckland Intl Airport / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Auckland City Council plans to sell 7% of <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/auckland-intl-airport-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:597:1" rel="noopener">Auckland Intl Airport (AIA NZ)</a>  to fund its budget requirements for 2023-24.</li>
<li>Auckland City Mayor has been talking about selling the stake since at least Dec 2022 and hence, the deal is already very well flagged.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the possible placement and other deal dynamics.</li>
</ul>


Auckland City Council plans to sell 7% of Auckland Intl Airport (AIA NZ)  to fund its budget requirements for 2023-24.
Auckland City Mayor has been talking about selling the stake since at least Dec 2022 and hence, the deal is already very well flagged.
In this note, we will talk about the possible placement and other deal dynamics.


Auckland Airport Possible Placement - Will Be Very Well Flagged US$540m Block

<ul><li>Napier Port (NPH) reported a strong FY25 result, in line with our and consensus expectations, driven by container volume growth and further pricing gains.</li><li>First-time FY26 EBITDA guidance appears consistent with management’s historically conservative lens, suggesting earnings risk remains to the upside.</li><li>Moreover, with a stable-to-positive cargo volume backdrop (notwithstanding another fall in cruise bookings), we anticipate continued strong profit growth and further progress towards a return on capital at least equal to WACC by FY28.</li></ul>

Napier Port (NPH) reported a strong FY25 result, in line with our and consensus expectations, driven by container volume growth and further pricing gains.First-time FY26 EBITDA guidance appears consistent with management’s historically conservative lens, suggesting earnings risk remains to the upside.Moreover, with a stable-to-positive cargo volume backdrop (notwithstanding another fall in cruise bookings), we anticipate continued strong profit growth and further progress towards a return on capital at least equal to WACC by FY28.

Napier Port FY25—Returns Destination On The Horizon

New Zealand

Port of Tauranga Limited activities include the provision of wharf facilities, back up land for the storage and transit of import and export cargo, berthage, cranes, tug and pilotage services for exporters, importers and shipping companies and the leasing of land and buildings.  The Group also operates a container terminal and has bulk cargo marshalling operations.

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Port of Tauranga (POT NZ)

Port of Tauranga - 1H25 Preview—Full Steam Ahead

Port of Tauranga (POT) will report a strong 1H25 result on 28 February 2025. We expect underlying NPAT growth of +23%, albeit against a relatively...

Forsyth Barr

Port of Tauranga - Tidal Valuation Shift Closes Multiple Gap

We downgrade our rating on Port of Tauranga (POT) to NEUTRAL from OUTPERFORM to reflect its material recent multiple rerating.

Forsyth Barr

Container Port Terminal Screener September 2025: Strong Result For POT NZ

We provide updates on the container port terminal companies, which we believe have pricing power and are primed to steadily increase their earnings...

Sameer Taneja

Auckland Airport Possible Placement - Will Be Very Well Flagged US$540m Block

Auckland Airport just reported its full year results, this in effect frees its largest shareholder, Auckland City Council to progress with its...

Sumeet Singh

Napier Port FY25—Returns Destination On The Horizon

Napier Port (NPH) reported a strong FY25 result, in line with our and consensus expectations, driven by container volume growth and further pricing...

Forsyth Barr

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