Equity, Bottom-up Analyst, Investics Research

Sameer Taneja

Equity, Bottom-up Analyst

Investics Research

It is important to note that the information provided by Investics Research is based on publicly available data and own knowledge, which has been gathered and analyzed from a variety of sources. While every effort has been made to ensure the accuracy and completeness of the information provided, it is not guaranteed to be free from errors or omissions. All forecasts and estimates are based on information that has been obtained from public sources that are considered to be reliable. The sources include but are not limited to, company announcements, exchange filings, presentations, etc. Investics does not guarantee the accuracy and completeness of the forecasts, estimates, and/or other information.

Equity Bottom-up Research

Equity Bottom-Up

International Container Terminal Services / Equity Bottom-Up

International Container Terminal Services (ICT PM)

International Container Terminal Services

<ul>
<li>Reports now out that the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mmc-port-holdings-berhad" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:45442:1" rel="noopener">MMC Port Holdings Berhad (2436494D MK)</a> IPO could be delayed by <a href="https://theedgemalaysia.com/node/768094" target="_blank" rel="noopener">some months</a>, as issues have arisen due to the lofty valuations.  </li>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/port-of-tauranga-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:3739:1" rel="noopener">Port of Tauranga (POT NZ)</a> reported strong results for FY25, and we expect strong guidance at its AGM in October for FY26. </li>
<li>We continue to favor <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/intl-container-term-svcs-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:20001:1" rel="noopener">ICTSI (ICT PM)</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/asian-terminals-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:22959:1" rel="noopener">Asian Terminals (ATI PM)</a> due to their duopoly position and control over pricing.</li>
</ul>


Reports now out that the MMC Port Holdings Berhad (2436494D MK) IPO could be delayed by some months, as issues have arisen due to the lofty valuations.  

Port of Tauranga (POT NZ) reported strong results for FY25, and we expect strong guidance at its AGM in October for FY26. 
We continue to favor ICTSI (ICT PM) and Asian Terminals (ATI PM) due to their duopoly position and control over pricing.


Container Port Terminal Screener September 2025: Strong Result For POT NZ

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm, Forsyth Barr

Forsyth Barr

New Zealand Professional Investment Services Firm

We are proud to be a New Zealand owned firm, with 21 offices throughout the country and over 300 employees. We assist personal, institutional and corporate clients providing a full range of investment services.

Forsyth Barr is a foundation New Zealand Exchange firm (NZX) and accredited market participant. We have been confirmed by the Financial Markets Authority as a Qualifying Financial Entity (QFE).

Research is the cornerstone of our advice. We have one of New Zealand's leading teams of analysts. Our global affiliations ensure comprehensive research coverage of all major investment markets.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>The fuel crisis has shifted into an inverted dead cat bounce, with jet fuel and the crack spread proving again to be a severe challenge for the aviation sector.</li><li>The higher and longer the bounce, the bigger the impending capacity reductions will be, and the deeper the losses incurred by our national carrier, Air New Zealand (AIR).</li><li>High fuel prices coupled with an upcoming election mean the fragility of the New Zealand consumer and wider economy is likely to remain a feature over the next few months, though we recognise economic conditions are more favourable in regional areas.</li></ul>

The fuel crisis has shifted into an inverted dead cat bounce, with jet fuel and the crack spread proving again to be a severe challenge for the aviation sector.The higher and longer the bounce, the bigger the impending capacity reductions will be, and the deeper the losses incurred by our national carrier, Air New Zealand (AIR).High fuel prices coupled with an upcoming election mean the fragility of the New Zealand consumer and wider economy is likely to remain a feature over the next few months, though we recognise economic conditions are more favourable in regional areas.

Transport Trends: Turbulence Aloft, Safe Harbours Ashore

<ul><li>Management reiterated its target and that it is on track (conceding that further pricing initiatives would be necessary in FY27) to generate a 7% ROIC on its operational assets (~85% of invested capital) by FY27.</li><li>POT generated a 5.3% ROIC on its operational assets in FY25.</li><li>We believe consensus earnings for FY27 (group EBIT at ~NZ$249m) are broadly consistent with this ROIC goal. </li></ul>

Management reiterated its target and that it is on track (conceding that further pricing initiatives would be necessary in FY27) to generate a 7% ROIC on its operational assets (~85% of invested capital) by FY27.POT generated a 5.3% ROIC on its operational assets in FY25.We believe consensus earnings for FY27 (group EBIT at ~NZ$249m) are broadly consistent with this ROIC goal. 

Port of Tauranga Investor Day—Setting the Course

<ul><li>Port of Tauranga (POT) reported a strong 1H26 result with scope for an acceleration in growth through 2H26.</li><li>A +NZ$5m upgrade to FY26 NPAT guidance appears conservative at the midpoint given the margin opportunity.</li><li>The second half will be more nuanced given the structural changes to MetroPort and the Maersk contract renewal, both effective 1 December 2025.</li></ul>

Port of Tauranga (POT) reported a strong 1H26 result with scope for an acceleration in growth through 2H26.A +NZ$5m upgrade to FY26 NPAT guidance appears conservative at the midpoint given the margin opportunity.The second half will be more nuanced given the structural changes to MetroPort and the Maersk contract renewal, both effective 1 December 2025.

<ul><li>Port of Tauranga (POT) will likely report a strong 1H26 result on Friday, 27 February 2026.</li><li>Recent initiatives, including the contract renewal with key shipping line customer Maersk, the exit from operational control of Metroport, and the doubling of the infrastructure levy, all took effect from 1 December 2025.</li><li>With volume growth constrained until completion of the berth extension, we view pricing as the primary earnings lever over the medium term.</li></ul>

Port of Tauranga (POT) will likely report a strong 1H26 result on Friday, 27 February 2026.Recent initiatives, including the contract renewal with key shipping line customer Maersk, the exit from operational control of Metroport, and the doubling of the infrastructure levy, all took effect from 1 December 2025.With volume growth constrained until completion of the berth extension, we view pricing as the primary earnings lever over the medium term.

Port Of Tauranga - 1H26 Preview—Piering Ahead

New Zealand

Port of Tauranga Limited activities include the provision of wharf facilities, back up land for the storage and transit of import and export cargo, berthage, cranes, tug and pilotage services for exporters, importers and shipping companies and the leasing of land and buildings.  The Group also operates a container terminal and has bulk cargo marshalling operations.

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Port of Tauranga (POT NZ)

Container Port Terminal Screener September 2025: Strong Result For POT NZ

We provide updates on the container port terminal companies, which we believe have pricing power and are primed to steadily increase their earnings...

Sameer Taneja

Transport Trends: Turbulence Aloft, Safe Harbours Ashore

The fuel crisis has shifted into an inverted dead cat bounce, with jet fuel and the crack spread proving again to be a severe challenge for the...

Forsyth Barr

Port of Tauranga Investor Day—Setting the Course

POT generated a 5.3% ROIC on its operational assets in FY25. We believe consensus earnings for FY27 (group EBIT at ~NZ$249m) are broadly consistent...

Forsyth Barr

Port Of Tauranga 1H26—Picking Up Steam

The second half will be more nuanced given the structural changes to MetroPort and the Maersk contract renewal, both effective 1 December 2025.

Forsyth Barr

Port Of Tauranga - 1H26 Preview—Piering Ahead

With volume growth constrained until completion of the berth extension, we view pricing as the primary earnings lever over the medium term.

Forsyth Barr

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