Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Following the short sell ban announced on the weekend, the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150</a> opened higher on Monday and rallied through the day.</li>
<li>A lot of the intraday gains on Monday have been given up over the next two trading days. Surprisingly, KRX data indicates that not a lot of shorts have covered.</li>
<li>Foreigners have been net cash buyers since Monday (could indicate covering of offshore borrow) while retail were big sellers on Monday.</li>
</ul>


Following the short sell ban announced on the weekend, the KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 opened higher on Monday and rallied through the day.
A lot of the intraday gains on Monday have been given up over the next two trading days. Surprisingly, KRX data indicates that not a lot of shorts have covered.
Foreigners have been net cash buyers since Monday (could indicate covering of offshore borrow) while retail were big sellers on Monday.


Korea Short Sell Ban: Not a Lot Covered on Monday; Shorts Holding On?

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 / Event-Driven

Korea Stock Exchange KOSPI 200 (KOSPI2 INDEX EQUITY)

<ul>
<li>Korea banned all short selling in March 2020 and resumed short selling only on <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/korea-stock-exchange-kospi-200" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:26021:1" rel="noopener">KOSPI 200</a> and <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/kosdaq-150-index" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:31077:1" rel="noopener">KOSDAQ 150</a> index constituents in May 2021.</li>
<li>News reports indicate that there could be another short sell ban as soon as the coming week. Indications are that the ban could last 6 months.</li>
<li>There are many implications of a total short sell ban including futures backwardation, market manipulation, and no emerging to developed market promotion.</li>
</ul>


Korea banned all short selling in March 2020 and resumed short selling only on KOSPI 200 and KOSDAQ 150 index constituents in May 2021.
News reports indicate that there could be another short sell ban as soon as the coming week. Indications are that the ban could last 6 months.
There are many implications of a total short sell ban including futures backwardation, market manipulation, and no emerging to developed market promotion.


Korea Short Sell Ban: Background, Manipulation, Holdings, Flows, Short Interest, Implications

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities, Mint Finance

Umang Agrawal

Iron Ore, Copper, Equities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Commodities

<ul>
<li>Elevated portside inventories and a fresh WoW increase suggest Golden Week restocking has yet to translate into meaningful inventory drawdowns.</li>
<li>Options positioning is turning increasingly constructive, with call OI building at strikes 105 and 110. OI PCR of 0.61 reinforces the bullish bias.</li>
<li>Managed money extended its bearish positioning for a 12th straight week, trimming long exposure by ~4% while increasing short positions by ~3%. </li>
</ul>


Elevated portside inventories and a fresh WoW increase suggest Golden Week restocking has yet to translate into meaningful inventory drawdowns.
Options positioning is turning increasingly constructive, with call OI building at strikes 105 and 110. OI PCR of 0.61 reinforces the bullish bias.
Managed money extended its bearish positioning for a 12th straight week, trimming long exposure by ~4% while increasing short positions by ~3%. 


Iron Ore’s GWH Restocking Is Back in Play, But Mill Margins Lag

Independent research on the U.S. markets, Baptista Research

Baptista Research

Independent research on the U.S. markets

Baptista Research is an independent financial research house focused on the U.S. markets. We provide equity research as well as credit research reports on the top-listed U.S. companies with most of our focus on technology, consumer goods and services, automobiles, industrials, oil and gas, pharma, and healthcare. Our research has served more than 3000 institutional investors including mutual funds, hedge funds, banks, family offices, and various buy-side firms. We operate a research subscription service where institutions, as well as retail investors, can have priority access to all our research. We also have a wide distribution of our research reports across some of the top global financial platforms. Apart from equity research and credit research, we also provide advisory services with respect to mergers & acquisitions (M&A), private equity/ venture capital fundraising, valuation reports, and investment management services for corporates.
Baptista Research is owned and managed by Ishan Majumdar, an ex-Venture Capitalist/ Investment Banker, a Chartered Accountant, and a Masters’ degree holder in Management from HEC Paris. Ishan has nearly a decade of experience in Mergers and Acquisitions, Leveraged Buyouts (LBOs), Venture Capital Investing, Corporate Strategy, and Valuation in front-office roles at the likes of BNP Paribas CIB, Credit Agricole CIB, Groupe Danone, and TIW Private Equity. He has worked on and closed multiple acquisition deals, leveraged buyouts, and start-up investment transactions.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul><li>POSCO Holdings reported consolidated revenue of KRW 17.9 trillion and operating profit of KRW 710 billion for the first quarter of 2026, indicating improvements in both areas compared to the previous quarter despite challenging macroeconomic conditions, including disruptions from the U.S.-Iran conflict that affected energy supply chains and led to volatile foreign exchange rates.</li><li>The company highlighted sector-specific performance with mixed results across its core businesses.</li><li>In rechargeable battery materials, rising lithium prices helped significantly reduce losses, particularly at POSCO Argentina, where production ramped up to around 70% utilization in March, resulting in the subsidiary’s first-ever monthly profit.</li></ul>

POSCO Holdings reported consolidated revenue of KRW 17.9 trillion and operating profit of KRW 710 billion for the first quarter of 2026, indicating improvements in both areas compared to the previous quarter despite challenging macroeconomic conditions, including disruptions from the U.S.-Iran conflict that affected energy supply chains and led to volatile foreign exchange rates.The company highlighted sector-specific performance with mixed results across its core businesses.In rechargeable battery materials, rising lithium prices helped significantly reduce losses, particularly at POSCO Argentina, where production ramped up to around 70% utilization in March, resulting in the subsidiary’s first-ever monthly profit.

POSCO Holdings: Initiation Of Coverage- A Powerful Lithium Recovery Story With Steel Margin Pressure Still In Focus!

Korea / Special Situations, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Situations

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>The dividend separate-tax regime is now clear: cash dividends only, with loss-making firms (e.g., Lotte 004990) qualifying if divs rise 10%+ YoY and D/E ≤200%.</li>
<li>The decree covers all dividend types (interim, quarterly, special, year-end), with payout ratios calculated on a consolidated basis as cash dividends divided by parent-shareholder net income.</li>
<li>Near-Term target basket based on FY25 FnGuide consensus and today’s decree, screening top KOSPI caps (≥KRW 2tn) yields ~13 names.</li>
</ul>


The dividend separate-tax regime is now clear: cash dividends only, with loss-making firms (e.g., Lotte 004990) qualifying if divs rise 10%+ YoY and D/E ≤200%.
The decree covers all dividend types (interim, quarterly, special, year-end), with payout ratios calculated on a consolidated basis as cash dividends divided by parent-shareholder net income.
Near-Term target basket based on FY25 FnGuide consensus and today’s decree, screening top KOSPI caps (≥KRW 2tn) yields ~13 names.


Detailed Screening Rules (Decree) For Div Separate Taxation Released: Near-Term Targets Screened

South Korea

POSCO Holdings Inc. manufactures and distributes steel products. The Company produces crude steel, hot rolled steel, cold rolled steel, stainless steel, steel plates, wire rods, galvanized steel, electrical steel, and other related products. POSCO Holdings markets its products worldwide.

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POSCO Holdings (005490 KS)

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Iron Ore’s GWH Restocking Is Back in Play, But Mill Margins Lag

Iron ore’s near-term direction remains sentiment-led, as restocking and bullish options positioning compete with weak steel margins.

Mint Finance

POSCO Holdings: Initiation Of Coverage- A Powerful Lithium Recovery Story With Steel Margin Pressure Still In Focus!

POSCO Holdings reported consolidated revenue of KRW 17.9 trillion and operating profit of KRW 710 billion for the first quarter of 2026,...

Baptista Research

Detailed Screening Rules (Decree) For Div Separate Taxation Released: Near-Term Targets Screened

This post looks into the newly released enforcement decree: detailed dividend separate-tax criteria and near-term target basket screening.

Sanghyun Park

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