Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs, Douglas Research Advisory

Douglas Kim

Korea/Asia, Events, IPOs

Douglas Research Advisory

Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Posco Future M (003670 KS) announced today that it plans to complete a rights offering capital raise of 1.1 trillion won. </li>
<li>The capital raise will involve 11.483 million new shares, representing 14.8% of current outstanding shares. The expected rights offering price is 95,800 won, which is 15.8% lower than current price. </li>
<li>We have a Negative view on POSCO Future M and this capital raise, which is likely to have a negative impact on its shares due to the dilution risk.</li>
</ul>


Posco Future M (003670 KS) announced today that it plans to complete a rights offering capital raise of 1.1 trillion won. 
The capital raise will involve 11.483 million new shares, representing 14.8% of current outstanding shares. The expected rights offering price is 95,800 won, which is 15.8% lower than current price. 
We have a Negative view on POSCO Future M and this capital raise, which is likely to have a negative impact on its shares due to the dilution risk.


POSCO Future M: A Rights Offering Capital Raise of 1.1 Trillion Won

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing, Clepsydra Capital

Sanghyun Park

Korea / Special Sits, Pairs, Index Rebalancing

Clepsydra Capital

Investigate special situations, pairs, and index rebalancing trades in Korea.

<ul>
<li>All three local CRAs are pushing hard — an equity raise isn’t optional, it’s the only shot at keeping the AA- rating intact. Street says it’s not if, it’s when.</li>
<li>Late April to mid-May looks like the key window. And start keeping tabs on the flow real tight.</li>
<li>Leak channels are still active. FSC’s pointed at IB sales and law firm staff. If we see outsized sell prints—especially from local hedge funds, that's our cue to act.</li>
</ul>


All three local CRAs are pushing hard — an equity raise isn’t optional, it’s the only shot at keeping the AA- rating intact. Street says it’s not if, it’s when.
Late April to mid-May looks like the key window. And start keeping tabs on the flow real tight.
Leak channels are still active. FSC’s pointed at IB sales and law firm staff. If we see outsized sell prints—especially from local hedge funds, that's our cue to act.


Timing the Announcement of POSCO Future M's Rights Issue

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One, Periscope Analytics

Brian Freitas

Pan-Asia Index Rebalances/ Events/ Delta One

Periscope Analytics

Periscope Analytics focuses on event-driven trades across Asia Pacific and provides comprehensive, timely and systematic coverage of index changes to major Asia Pacific indices in a structured manner.

The analysis includes forecasted inclusions and exclusions to all major Asian indices that have significant amount of tracking assets, including estimates of passive buy/sell flow on the stocks. The service also provides commentary and impact of market consultations, ground rule changes, and other events (IPOs, spin-offs, M&A) that could lead to index changes and passive flow.

Periscope Analytics works with multi-strategy hedge funds, proprietary trading firms, stat arb trading groups and long-only investors that invest and trade in the Asia Pacific region with the data being used to trade index rebalances, avoid pre-positioning and passive flow, and to time entry into and exit from stocks.

Event-Driven Trades Across Asia Pacific

Index Rebalance

<ul>
<li>The <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mirae-asset-tiger-top-10-etf" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:36042:1" rel="noopener">Mirae Asset Tiger Top 10 ETF (292150 KS)</a> tracks the FnGuide Top 10 Index and has an AUM of around US$660m.</li>
<li>We currently forecast two potential changes at the next rebalance in June - both are high probability changes.</li>
<li>The trade has performed well historically with positive performance till implementation followed by reversion post implementation in most cases.</li>
</ul>


The Mirae Asset Tiger Top 10 ETF (292150 KS) tracks the FnGuide Top 10 Index and has an AUM of around US$660m.
We currently forecast two potential changes at the next rebalance in June - both are high probability changes.
The trade has performed well historically with positive performance till implementation followed by reversion post implementation in most cases.


FnGuide Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Flow in Large Cap Stocks

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>There is an important potential change in dividend income taxes that may finally be passed into law in Korea.</li>
<li>The Democratic Party of Korea (led by Democratic Party lawmaker Lee So-Young) is pushing legislation to separate the taxation of dividends from comprehensive income for publicly listed companies.</li>
<li>Among the top 100 companies in KOSPI (by market cap), there are 21 companies with more than 35% estimated dividend payout in 2025, including SK Telecom, POSCO Holdings, and KT&amp;G.</li>
</ul>


There is an important potential change in dividend income taxes that may finally be passed into law in Korea.
The Democratic Party of Korea (led by Democratic Party lawmaker Lee So-Young) is pushing legislation to separate the taxation of dividends from comprehensive income for publicly listed companies.
Among the top 100 companies in KOSPI (by market cap), there are 21 companies with more than 35% estimated dividend payout in 2025, including SK Telecom, POSCO Holdings, and KT&amp;G.


Potential Change in Dividend Income Taxes in Korea - Will the Lawmakers Finally Make the Change?

<ul>
<li>Korea's battery sector got wrecked, crushing POSCO and Samsung SDI's caps. Shakeup incoming: Hanwha Aerospace locks in, and Samsung Biologics is also a strong contender.</li>
<li>Low pre-positioning leads to highly correlated moves on rebalance day; last June, KB and Shinhan got in while LG Chem and Energy got cut with similar impact, netting ~3% yield.</li>
<li>Given the track record, it makes sense to trim the holding window on rebalance day and deploy a long-short strategy.</li>
</ul>


Korea's battery sector got wrecked, crushing POSCO and Samsung SDI's caps. Shakeup incoming: Hanwha Aerospace locks in, and Samsung Biologics is also a strong contender.
Low pre-positioning leads to highly correlated moves on rebalance day; last June, KB and Shinhan got in while LG Chem and Energy got cut with similar impact, netting ~3% yield.
Given the track record, it makes sense to trim the holding window on rebalance day and deploy a long-short strategy.


4 Key Movers in TIGER Top 10 in June Reshuffle

South Korea

POSCO Holdings Inc. manufactures and distributes steel products. The Company produces crude steel, hot rolled steel, cold rolled steel, stainless steel, steel plates, wire rods, galvanized steel, electrical steel, and other related products. POSCO Holdings markets its products worldwide.

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POSCO Holdings (005490 KS)

POSCO Future M: A Rights Offering Capital Raise of 1.1 Trillion Won

Posco Future M (003670 KS) announced today that it plans to complete a rights offering capital raise of 1.1 trillion won. We have a Negative view...

Douglas Kim

Timing the Announcement of POSCO Future M's Rights Issue

Posco Future M is launching a rights offering for 11.48M shares (~12% dilution). Tentative price is KRW 95,800 with a 20% discount; final pricing...

Sanghyun Park

FnGuide Top10 Index Rebalance Preview: Big Flow in Large Cap Stocks

There could be two changes for the FnGuide Top 10 Index in June. The forecast adds have outperformed the forecast deletes and history indicates...

Brian Freitas

Potential Change in Dividend Income Taxes in Korea - Will the Lawmakers Finally Make the Change?

Under the revised proposed law, it would apply separate tax rates to the dividends of listed companies with dividend payout ratios of more than 35%.

Douglas Kim

4 Key Movers in TIGER Top 10 in June Reshuffle

This post breaks down June’s key passive event in the Korean market: the TIGER Top 10 rebalancing, with four heavy hitters in play.

Sanghyun Park

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