Chief Economist & Political Strategist, CrossASEAN Research

Prasenjit K. Basu

Chief Economist & Political Strategist

CrossASEAN Research

At CrossASEAN Research we strive to produce unbiased and differentiated on the ground insights on companies across South East Asia. Our Research is produced for the most part after face to face meetings and conversations with company management to dig deep into the long term vision and strategy of the companies we cover. We seek to deliver investable and actionable themes on sectors and markets across SE Asia, often in collaboration with other Insight Providers across the region, pooling the vast experience of the analysts within the Smartkarma Ecosystem. We also offer bespoke work and tailor made trips for our clients. 

Insights across South East Asia

Macroeconomics

<ul>
<li>On Election Day, the US faces a Dead Heat. Realclearpolitics predicts a Trump victory, The Economist a narrow Harris win (270-268), similar to fivethirtyeight's tally. Turmoil amid slow counting likely.</li>
<li>A Trump win would be good for conventional energy, banks, PE (via deregulation). Lower oil prices and a 60% tariff on imports from China would benefit Japan, India, Korea, Vietnam. </li>
<li>A Harris win would would be good for housing/property, green energy, semiconductors, negative for equities (as corporate &amp; capital-gains taxes rise) and retailers (anti-price-gouging!). Taiwan, Ukraine, UK, France would gain. </li>
</ul>


On Election Day, the US faces a Dead Heat. Realclearpolitics predicts a Trump victory, The Economist a narrow Harris win (270-268), similar to fivethirtyeight's tally. Turmoil amid slow counting likely.
A Trump win would be good for conventional energy, banks, PE (via deregulation). Lower oil prices and a 60% tariff on imports from China would benefit Japan, India, Korea, Vietnam. 
A Harris win would would be good for housing/property, green energy, semiconductors, negative for equities (as corporate &amp; capital-gains taxes rise) and retailers (anti-price-gouging!). Taiwan, Ukraine, UK, France would gain. 


US: Election Is a Dead Heat, but There'll Be Very Different Winners from Each Outcome

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport, Tracking Traffic

Daniel Hellberg

Asian Equities Analyst, Logistics & Transport

Tracking Traffic

Focusing on Asian logistics, transportation, and travel companies

Equity Capital Markets

Hive Box Holdings / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>In this insight we provide an overview of Hive Box's business and its history</li>
<li>We then go into detail on key relationships &amp; investors, focusing on SF Holding</li>
<li>We end with some initial questions and what's up next in the IPO process</li>
</ul>


In this insight we provide an overview of Hive Box's business and its history
We then go into detail on key relationships &amp; investors, focusing on SF Holding
We end with some initial questions and what's up next in the IPO process


Hive Box Holdings Pre-IPO, Part 1: What They Do, History, Relationships, & What's Next

IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Bloomberg <a href="https://news.bloomberglaw.com/mergers-and-acquisitions/esr-bidders-said-to-weigh-bringing-in-more-investors-for-buyout" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reports</a> that the bidding consortium is in talks to bring in other partners, such as QIA, PIF, and CPP Investment Board, to aid in privatising <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/esr-group-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27983:1" rel="noopener">ESR Group (1821 HK)</a>.</li>
<li>Warburg Pincus and OMERS have blocking stakes for a Cayman scheme. Warburg Pincus is seemingly supportive, and the consortium’s expansion talks suggest confidence in meeting OMERS’ price expectations.</li>
<li>Our best guess is that an offer is around HK$14.00. ESR’s current valuation is undemanding, with its forward EV/EBITDA multiple at a 40% discount compared to the median peers’ multiple.</li>
</ul>


Bloomberg reports that the bidding consortium is in talks to bring in other partners, such as QIA, PIF, and CPP Investment Board, to aid in privatising ESR Group (1821 HK).
Warburg Pincus and OMERS have blocking stakes for a Cayman scheme. Warburg Pincus is seemingly supportive, and the consortium’s expansion talks suggest confidence in meeting OMERS’ price expectations.
Our best guess is that an offer is around HK$14.00. ESR’s current valuation is undemanding, with its forward EV/EBITDA multiple at a 40% discount compared to the median peers’ multiple.


ESR Group (1821 HK): Consortium’s Expansion Talks Suggest Progress

Listed Real Estate Asia, KT Capital Group

Jacob Cheng

Listed Real Estate Asia

KT Capital Group

Principal investments and advisory firm that focuses on connecting the CIS countries with East Asia.

Principal investments and advisory firm

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Logistics REITs are aggressively pivoting from warehouses to high-power data centers, leveraging strategic landbanks to capture massive yield premiums driven by exponential artificial intelligence computing demand.</li>
<li>Funding power-dense digital infrastructure requires enormous capital, forcing logistics giants to execute transformative cross-border mergers, deploy sovereign wealth joint ventures, and pursue aggressive programmatic asset recycling.</li>
<li>We issue strong BUY recommendations for Prologis, Goodman Group, CapitaLand Ascendas REIT, and GLP Capital Partners, as their secure power-grid monopolies trigger major structural valuation re-ratings.</li>
</ul>


Logistics REITs are aggressively pivoting from warehouses to high-power data centers, leveraging strategic landbanks to capture massive yield premiums driven by exponential artificial intelligence computing demand.
Funding power-dense digital infrastructure requires enormous capital, forcing logistics giants to execute transformative cross-border mergers, deploy sovereign wealth joint ventures, and pursue aggressive programmatic asset recycling.
We issue strong BUY recommendations for Prologis, Goodman Group, CapitaLand Ascendas REIT, and GLP Capital Partners, as their secure power-grid monopolies trigger major structural valuation re-ratings.


Power Is the New Land: Logistics REITs Pivot to Hyperscale AI Data Centers

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

<ul>
<li>The agreed Scheme values SEGRO at 1,054.3p including the retained 2026 final dividend, effectively matching our 1,055p target price and validating our original standalone valuation.</li>
<li>Using current market prices, the live completion value is 1,030.9p, leaving a 7.3% gross spread and an estimated 8.1% annualised return to our assumed 30 June 2027 settlement.</li>
<li>We raise our completion probability to 88%, above the market-implied 75.8%, and now favour a conventional long SEGRO/short Prologis merger-arbitrage position over an outright long SEGRO exposure.</li>
</ul>


The agreed Scheme values SEGRO at 1,054.3p including the retained 2026 final dividend, effectively matching our 1,055p target price and validating our original standalone valuation.
Using current market prices, the live completion value is 1,030.9p, leaving a 7.3% gross spread and an estimated 8.1% annualised return to our assumed 30 June 2027 settlement.
We raise our completion probability to 88%, above the market-implied 75.8%, and now favour a conventional long SEGRO/short Prologis merger-arbitrage position over an outright long SEGRO exposure.


Prologis/SEGRO: Agreement Reached at Fair Value

United States

Prologis, Inc. is an owner, operator and developer of industrial real estate, focused on global and regional markets across the Americas, Europe and Asia. The Company also leases modern distribution facilities to customers, including manufacturers, retailers, transportation companies, third-party logistics providers and other enterprises.

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Prologis Inc (PLD US)

US: Election Is a Dead Heat, but There'll Be Very Different Winners from Each Outcome

RCP predicts a big Trump win, TheEconomist a narrow Harris one. Turnout key for Trump; his win would lower oil prices & hit China, benefitting the...

Prasenjit K. Basu

Hive Box Holdings Pre-IPO, Part 1: What They Do, History, Relationships, & What's Next

Chinese smart locker operator Hive Box has filed to go public in Hong Kong. In this insight we offer an overview of its business, a corporate...

Tracking Traffic

ESR Group (1821 HK): Consortium’s Expansion Talks Suggest Progress

The probability of an offer remains high, and the latest Bloomberg reports suggest progress towards a binding proposal. Our best guess is that an...

Arun George

Power Is the New Land: Logistics REITs Pivot to Hyperscale AI Data Centers

Logistics REITs are aggressively pivoting from warehouses to high-power data centers, leveraging strategic landbanks to capture massive yield...

Jacob Cheng

Prologis/SEGRO: Agreement Reached at Fair Value

The agreed terms close one opportunity and create another. We update our valuation, probabilities and investment view accordingly.

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

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