HK/China Healthcare Analyst (ex-Fosun Pharma)

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Equity Capital Markets

Shanghai Forest Cabin Biological-Tech / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>FOREST CABIN holds a leading position in camellia oil segmentation, with mid-to-high end positioning and high gross profit margin. But high operating cost will put pressure on net profit margin.</li>
<li>Considering the risk of recession/depression, consumption downgrade and reducing non-rigid spending will be the main theme in short term. 50% YoY revenue growth in 2024 is likely to be unsustainable.</li>
<li>Valuation of FOREST CABIN could be lower than peers. Stock price performance would highly depend on market sentiment, company growth trend, and visibility of profitability at the time of listing.</li>
</ul>


FOREST CABIN holds a leading position in camellia oil segmentation, with mid-to-high end positioning and high gross profit margin. But high operating cost will put pressure on net profit margin.
Considering the risk of recession/depression, consumption downgrade and reducing non-rigid spending will be the main theme in short term. 50% YoY revenue growth in 2024 is likely to be unsustainable.
Valuation of FOREST CABIN could be lower than peers. Stock price performance would highly depend on market sentiment, company growth trend, and visibility of profitability at the time of listing.


Pre-IPO Shanghai Forest Cabin Biological-Tech - The Business Model and the Concerns Behind

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements, Aequitas Research

Sumeet Singh

Head of Research, IPOs & Placements

IPOs and Placements coverage across Asia Pacific

Aequitas Research

We cover all listing across the Asia Pacific along with follow-up placements. As of Dec 2020, our team had covered 539 IPOs with a hit rate of 73.5% and 685 placements with a hit rate of 66.8%.

We combine fundamental bottom-up views with our proprietary quantitative framework to provide a holistic coverage across new listings and placements. Our coverage includes pre-IPO notes before the deal is launched, follow-up analysis once the deal is live and post-listing trading analysis as well.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/mao-geping-cosmetics-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:41297:1" rel="noopener">Mao Geping Cosmetics</a> raised around US$345m in its Hong Kong IPO. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to expire soon.</li>
<li>Mao Geping Cosmetics (MGC) operates in the premium beauty segment. Operating via its two brands, MAOGEPING and Love Keeps, MGC offers a wide range of color cosmetics and skincare products.</li>
<li>In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.</li>
</ul>



Mao Geping Cosmetics raised around US$345m in its Hong Kong IPO. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to expire soon.
Mao Geping Cosmetics (MGC) operates in the premium beauty segment. Operating via its two brands, MAOGEPING and Love Keeps, MGC offers a wide range of color cosmetics and skincare products.
In this note, we will talk about the lockup dynamics and possible placement.


Mao Geping IPO Lockup - Stock Is up 4x, US$400m Cornerstone Lockup Release

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giant-biogene-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35950:1" rel="noopener">Giant Biogene (2367 HK)</a> aims to raise up to US$250m via a top-up placement.</li>
<li>We have followed the company since listing and its recent performance has been great. Although it doesn’t seem to need the cash and the previous deal didn’t go well.</li>
<li>In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.</li>
</ul>



Giant Biogene (2367 HK) aims to raise up to US$250m via a top-up placement.
We have followed the company since listing and its recent performance has been great. Although it doesn’t seem to need the cash and the previous deal didn’t go well.
In this note, we will run the deal through our ECM framework and talk about the recent updates.


Giant Biogene Placement - Great Track Record but Previous Deal Didn’t Do Well

External broker reports(aggregated public sources), CMB International

CMB International

External broker reports(aggregated public sources)

Incorporated in Hong Kong, supported by the mainland and targeting in global market, CMB International Capital Corporation Limited (“CMBI”) is an integrated financial institution providing comprehensive and professional services. As a wholly-owned subsidiary of China Merchants Bank ("CMB"), by leveraging on the Group’s synergy and coordination in domestic and overseas markets, as well as CMB’s strong resources and outstanding social reputation, CMBI and its subsidiaries have been actively implementing diversified business strategies and set up an overall layout of main business segments including Corporate Finance, Asset Management, Wealth Management, Global Markets and Structured Finance, etc. Adhering to the philosophy of “being clients oriented and increasing our own values by the way of creating value for clients”, CMBI endeavors to provide quality and integrated financial services to institutional, corporate and individual customers both domestic and overseas including Hong Kong IPO sponsorship and underwriting, share placement and rights issue for listed companies, financial advisors, bonds issuance services, asset management, direct investment, wealth management, equity sales and trading, etc.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul><li>Feb cosmetics sales data shows that domestic brands were focusing on Douyin, with a particularly strong growth in skincare segment.</li><li>In the first two months, Giant Biogene (GB) and Mao GePing (MGP) had notable growth, while Marubi and Shanghai Jahwa (Jahwa) improved significantly, with growth surpassing that of each quarter in 2024 (Figure 1).</li><li>During the Women’s Day promotion week, MGP shined, topping the Douyin makeup chart. Proya and Kans retained the top spots on Tmall and Douyin cosmetics rankings (skincare + makeup). </li></ul><p><em>Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.</em></p>

Feb cosmetics sales data shows that domestic brands were focusing on Douyin, with a particularly strong growth in skincare segment.In the first two months, Giant Biogene (GB) and Mao GePing (MGP) had notable growth, while Marubi and Shanghai Jahwa (Jahwa) improved significantly, with growth surpassing that of each quarter in 2024 (Figure 1).During the Women’s Day promotion week, MGP shined, topping the Douyin makeup chart. Proya and Kans retained the top spots on Tmall and Douyin cosmetics rankings (skincare + makeup). Content is external broker report sourced from online content aggregator through publicly available sources and is displayed below for general informational purposes only. Refer full disclaimer below.

Consumer Staples - Mao Geping & Giant Bio Surged, Marubi & Jahwa Had a Strong Start

Mao Geping Cosmetics / Equity Capital Markets

<ul>
<li>Behind MAO GEPING’s high profitability, there are hidden risks. One is the potential quality issues from ODM/OEM model, and the other is excessive reliance on Mr. Mao Geping's personal IP.</li>
<li>Without strong R&amp;D capabilities, high-end positioning isn’t firm.With increasing downward pressure in the industry, MAO GEPING would become passive in fierce competition and the industry trend of customers pursuing cost-effectiveness.</li>
<li>MAO GEPING’s valuation could be lower than <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/giant-biogene-holding-co-ltd" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:35950:1" rel="noopener">Giant Biogene</a> due to concerns on future sustainable growth prospects and profitability, but higher than industry average due to the strong short-term financial performance.  </li>
</ul>


Behind MAO GEPING’s high profitability, there are hidden risks. One is the potential quality issues from ODM/OEM model, and the other is excessive reliance on Mr. Mao Geping's personal IP.
Without strong R&amp;D capabilities, high-end positioning isn’t firm.With increasing downward pressure in the industry, MAO GEPING would become passive in fierce competition and the industry trend of customers pursuing cost-effectiveness.
MAO GEPING’s valuation could be lower than Giant Biogene due to concerns on future sustainable growth prospects and profitability, but higher than industry average due to the strong short-term financial performance.  


Pre-IPO Mao Geping Cosmetics (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

China

Proya Cosmetics Co., Ltd. operates as a cosmetics products manufacturing company. The Company researches and markets skin care products, make up, body wash, and other related products. Proya Cosmetics markets its products throughout China.

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Proya Cosmetics (603605 CH)

Pre-IPO Shanghai Forest Cabin Biological-Tech - The Business Model and the Concerns Behind

Forest Cabin's leading position in camellia oil market could be challenged by high operating costs and potential economic downturn, impacting...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Mao Geping IPO Lockup - Stock Is up 4x, US$400m Cornerstone Lockup Release

Mao Geping Cosmetics raised around US$345m in its Hong Kong IPO. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to expire soon.

Sumeet Singh

Giant Biogene Placement - Great Track Record but Previous Deal Didn’t Do Well

Giant Biogene (2367 HK) aims to raise up to US$250m via a top-up placement. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through...

Sumeet Singh

Consumer Staples - Mao Geping & Giant Bio Surged, Marubi & Jahwa Had a Strong Start

Feb cosmetics sales data shows that domestic brands were focusing on Douyin, with a particularly strong growth in skincare segment.

CMB International

Pre-IPO Mao Geping Cosmetics (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

Mao Geping's debut was excellent. As analyzed in the insight, we think reasonable valuation should be lower than Giant Biogene, whose Class III...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

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Pre-IPO Shanghai Forest Cabin Biological-Tech - The Business Model and the Concerns Behind

​Forest Cabin's leading position in camellia oil market could be challenged by high operating costs and potential economic downturn, impacting...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Mao Geping IPO Lockup - Stock Is up 4x, US$400m Cornerstone Lockup Release

Mao Geping Cosmetics raised around US$345m in its Hong Kong IPO. The lockup on its cornerstone investors is set to expire soon.

Sumeet Singh

Giant Biogene Placement - Great Track Record but Previous Deal Didn’t Do Well

Giant Biogene (2367 HK) aims to raise up to US$250m via a top-up placement. In this note, we talk about the deal dynamics and run the deal through...

Sumeet Singh

Consumer Staples - Mao Geping & Giant Bio Surged, Marubi & Jahwa Had a Strong Start

Feb cosmetics sales data shows that domestic brands were focusing on Douyin, with a particularly strong growth in skincare segment.

CMB International

Pre-IPO Mao Geping Cosmetics (PHIP Updates) - Some Points Worth the Attention

Mao Geping's debut was excellent. As analyzed in the insight, we think reasonable valuation should be lower than Giant Biogene, whose Class III...

Xinyao (Criss) Wang

Forest Cabin's leading position in camellia oil market could be challenged by high operating costs and potential economic downturn, impacting...