AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Equity Bottom-Up

<ul>
<li>Multiple industry checks now indicate that Apple is preparing to source its entry-level M-series processors from Intel’s 18A node with EMIB-T packaging as early as 2027.</li>
<li>The revenue impact will be modest, but the signalling value is enormous: Apple does not hand out advanced-node access unless the foundry roadmap is de-risked.</li>
<li>This development aligns directly with the structural shifts we’ve been highlighting; Intel’s packaging-first wedge, foundry credibility, and TSMC’s overcapacity creating space for second-sourcing.</li>
</ul>


Multiple industry checks now indicate that Apple is preparing to source its entry-level M-series processors from Intel’s 18A node with EMIB-T packaging as early as 2027.
The revenue impact will be modest, but the signalling value is enormous: Apple does not hand out advanced-node access unless the foundry roadmap is de-risked.
This development aligns directly with the structural shifts we’ve been highlighting; Intel’s packaging-first wedge, foundry credibility, and TSMC’s overcapacity creating space for second-sourcing.


Apple’s 18A Test Case Is the Inflection Intel Needed

European Event-Driven Analyst

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>Qualcomm’s $2.48/share offer for Alphawave is fully recommended and cleared by regulators, with completion expected mid-December. FX-linked cash value limits remaining upside; no sweetener or bump indicated.</li>
<li>Alphawave shares now trade above implied value, reflecting full deal certainty. Arbitrage returns attractive only for early entrants; current negative spread makes new positions unattractive.</li>
<li>Founders aligned via exchangeable securities; structure supports completion. Qualcomm gains SerDes IP and custom silicon capabilities for AI data center growth, diversifying away from mobile reliance.</li>
</ul>


Qualcomm’s $2.48/share offer for Alphawave is fully recommended and cleared by regulators, with completion expected mid-December. FX-linked cash value limits remaining upside; no sweetener or bump indicated.
Alphawave shares now trade above implied value, reflecting full deal certainty. Arbitrage returns attractive only for early entrants; current negative spread makes new positions unattractive.
Founders aligned via exchangeable securities; structure supports completion. Qualcomm gains SerDes IP and custom silicon capabilities for AI data center growth, diversifying away from mobile reliance.


Alphawave: Fully Valued, Waiting for the Wire

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Japan has intentionally stepped into the middle of the geopolitical battle between the U.S. and China with Prime Minister Takaichi's policy-changing Taiwan comments to Japan's parliament.</li>
<li>China's retaliation has been swift and tactical, issuing travel warnings, high-level diplomatic reprimands, and conducting military exercises near the Senkaku Islands.  China has promised a continuing substantial and broad-based response.</li>
<li>We expect China's response to include rare earth export and Japanese trade restrictions and targeted boycotts of Japanese goods on the mainland.</li>
</ul>


Japan has intentionally stepped into the middle of the geopolitical battle between the U.S. and China with Prime Minister Takaichi's policy-changing Taiwan comments to Japan's parliament.
China's retaliation has been swift and tactical, issuing travel warnings, high-level diplomatic reprimands, and conducting military exercises near the Senkaku Islands.  China has promised a continuing substantial and broad-based response.
We expect China's response to include rare earth export and Japanese trade restrictions and targeted boycotts of Japanese goods on the mainland.


Japan Picks a Fight with China!! What Happens Now?

<ul>
<li>Apple, Qualcomm, and Tesla are all hiring for EMIB-class advanced packaging, signalling an industry shift toward tech where Intel holds a structural edge.</li>
<li>Intel’s “packaging-first” strategy outlined last year is now visible in real customer activity; foundry share will be won through packaging long before leading-edge wafers.</li>
<li>With TSMC carrying excess capacity, IFS enters a rare window where early 18A traction and EMIB pull-through can create a credible path to 14A volume wins.</li>
</ul>


Apple, Qualcomm, and Tesla are all hiring for EMIB-class advanced packaging, signalling an industry shift toward tech where Intel holds a structural edge.
Intel’s “packaging-first” strategy outlined last year is now visible in real customer activity; foundry share will be won through packaging long before leading-edge wafers.
With TSMC carrying excess capacity, IFS enters a rare window where early 18A traction and EMIB pull-through can create a credible path to 14A volume wins.


IFS Comeback: Apple, Qualcomm, and Tesla Validating Intel’s Packaging Advantage

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR / Equity Bottom-Up

TSMC (Taiwan Semiconductor Manufacturing) - ADR

<ul>
<li>TSMC’s advanced-node wafer costs are rising sharply, with 2nm pricing now 50% above 3nm and multi-year price hikes expected; margin pressures likely for fabless players like Qualcomm, MediaTek, and AMD.</li>
<li>U.S. fab expansion eroding TSMC's cost advantage; production reportedly 30–50% more expensive than in Taiwan. This opens the door for Intel and Samsung as geopolitical and cost dynamics shift.</li>
<li>Presently, TSMC remains irreplaceable in yield and process leadership, but one key moat may no longer be unchallenged; foundry competition to reshape over the next three years.</li>
</ul>


TSMC’s advanced-node wafer costs are rising sharply, with 2nm pricing now 50% above 3nm and multi-year price hikes expected; margin pressures likely for fabless players like Qualcomm, MediaTek, and AMD.
U.S. fab expansion eroding TSMC's cost advantage; production reportedly 30–50% more expensive than in Taiwan. This opens the door for Intel and Samsung as geopolitical and cost dynamics shift.
Presently, TSMC remains irreplaceable in yield and process leadership, but one key moat may no longer be unchallenged; foundry competition to reshape over the next three years.


Margin Call at 2nm: What TSMC's Price Hike Means for the Chip Ecosystem

United States

QUALCOMM, Inc . manufactures digital wireless communications equipment.  The Company licenses its code division multiple access (CDMA) and orthogonal frequency division multiplexing access intellectual property to other companies, and produces CDMA-based integrated circuits; and produces equipment and software used to track workers and assets; and software for wireless content enablement.

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Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US)

Apple’s 18A Test Case Is the Inflection Intel Needed

Apple sourcing entry-level M-series processors from Intel's 18A node signals a shift in the industry landscape towards Intel's packaging-first...

Mint Finance

Alphawave: Fully Valued, Waiting for the Wire

Qualcomm’s $2.48/share offer for Alphawave is fully endorsed, FX-linked, and nearly closed. With no bump or sweetener in sight, current levels...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Japan Picks a Fight with China!! What Happens Now?

Japan is deploying missiles to an island near Taiwan in an escalation of its increased militarism toward China since the PM election last month....

David Mudd

IFS Comeback: Apple, Qualcomm, and Tesla Validating Intel’s Packaging Advantage

Intel's packaging-first strategy is gaining traction, with a potential for winning foundry share with early 18A traction, EMIB adoption, and...

Mint Finance

Margin Call at 2nm: What TSMC's Price Hike Means for the Chip Ecosystem

TSMC's wafer costs are rising sharply, putting pressure on fabless players like Qualcomm, MediaTek, and AMD. U.S. fab expansion and competition...

Mint Finance

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Apple’s 18A Test Case Is the Inflection Intel Needed

​Apple sourcing entry-level M-series processors from Intel's 18A node signals a shift in the industry landscape towards Intel's packaging-first...

Mint Finance

Alphawave: Fully Valued, Waiting for the Wire

Qualcomm’s $2.48/share offer for Alphawave is fully endorsed, FX-linked, and nearly closed. With no bump or sweetener in sight, current levels...

Jesus Rodriguez Aguilar

Japan Picks a Fight with China!! What Happens Now?

Japan is deploying missiles to an island near Taiwan in an escalation of its increased militarism toward China since the PM election last month....

David Mudd

IFS Comeback: Apple, Qualcomm, and Tesla Validating Intel’s Packaging Advantage

Intel's packaging-first strategy is gaining traction, with a potential for winning foundry share with early 18A traction, EMIB adoption, and...

Mint Finance

Margin Call at 2nm: What TSMC's Price Hike Means for the Chip Ecosystem

​TSMC's wafer costs are rising sharply, putting pressure on fabless players like Qualcomm, MediaTek, and AMD. U.S. fab expansion and competition...

Mint Finance

Apple sourcing entry-level M-series processors from Intel's 18A node signals a shift in the industry landscape towards Intel's packaging-first...

TSMC's wafer costs are rising sharply, putting pressure on fabless players like Qualcomm, MediaTek, and AMD. U.S. fab expansion and competition...