AI | Semiconductors | Commodities, Mint Finance

Raghav Vashisht

AI | Semiconductors | Commodities

Deep Fundamental Analysis

Mint Finance

Mint Finance's investment research blends deep fundamental analysis with technical & quant insights. Investment strategies straddle across multiple asset classes with risk management embedded into every trade to deliver an outsized reward-to-risk ratio.

Mint Finance's research is centered around three key themes. First, energy transition and climate change. Second, artificial intelligence. Third, shifting world order with its impact across politics and monetary economics.

Thematic (Sector/Industry)

<ul>
<li>Samsung Foundry’s utilisation is recovering on 4nm/8nm, but 2nm yields keep break-even out of reach; TSMC tightness and Tesla’s AI6 deal are the near-term demand supports.</li>
<li>TSMC’s 3nm is effectively sold out through 2027, turning what began as a CoWoS bottleneck into a wafer constraint and pushing customers to hedge via Samsung and Intel.</li>
<li>AI is creating a new materials bottleneck in indium phosphide, while China’s CXMT accelerates DRAM scale-up, narrowing the process gap and reshaping bargaining power.</li>
</ul>


Samsung Foundry’s utilisation is recovering on 4nm/8nm, but 2nm yields keep break-even out of reach; TSMC tightness and Tesla’s AI6 deal are the near-term demand supports.
TSMC’s 3nm is effectively sold out through 2027, turning what began as a CoWoS bottleneck into a wafer constraint and pushing customers to hedge via Samsung and Intel.
AI is creating a new materials bottleneck in indium phosphide, while China’s CXMT accelerates DRAM scale-up, narrowing the process gap and reshaping bargaining power.


[Wafer Watch] Foundry Loading, 3nm Scarcity, and New Materials Constraints

Asian Hedge Fund Manager, Long Short Equity, Macro

David Mudd

Cross Asset Strategy

<ul>
<li>Japan has intentionally stepped into the middle of the geopolitical battle between the U.S. and China with Prime Minister Takaichi's policy-changing Taiwan comments to Japan's parliament.</li>
<li>China's retaliation has been swift and tactical, issuing travel warnings, high-level diplomatic reprimands, and conducting military exercises near the Senkaku Islands.  China has promised a continuing substantial and broad-based response.</li>
<li>We expect China's response to include rare earth export and Japanese trade restrictions and targeted boycotts of Japanese goods on the mainland.</li>
</ul>


Japan has intentionally stepped into the middle of the geopolitical battle between the U.S. and China with Prime Minister Takaichi's policy-changing Taiwan comments to Japan's parliament.
China's retaliation has been swift and tactical, issuing travel warnings, high-level diplomatic reprimands, and conducting military exercises near the Senkaku Islands.  China has promised a continuing substantial and broad-based response.
We expect China's response to include rare earth export and Japanese trade restrictions and targeted boycotts of Japanese goods on the mainland.


Japan Picks a Fight with China!! What Happens Now?

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors, The Circuit

The Circuit

Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors

A Podcast On the Business of Semiconductors. With Jay Goldberg and Ben Bajarin

<ul><li>Discussion of infrastructure capex as a percentage of US GDP by era, highlighting the current rate of 1.2%</li><li>Comparison of current bubble dynamics to past bubbles, noting that the current bubble is not as excessive as previous ones</li><li>Debate over whether the current investment cycle is a bubble or a strong investment cycle, with concerns about speculative investments and emotional factors leading to potential overvaluation in the future</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Discussion of infrastructure capex as a percentage of US GDP by era, highlighting the current rate of 1.2%Comparison of current bubble dynamics to past bubbles, noting that the current bubble is not as excessive as previous onesDebate over whether the current investment cycle is a bubble or a strong investment cycle, with concerns about speculative investments and emotional factors leading to potential overvaluation in the futureThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

EP 129: Capex to the Moon 2.0! Bubble Debate, and QCOM and Arm Earnings

<ul><li>Strong quarter with big surprise on EPS and above-expectation guidance</li><li>Positive performance in PCs and automotive sectors, with design wins and partnerships</li><li>Concerns over competitive landscape and market expectations, but overall solid performance from Qualcomm and potential for growth opportunities in the future</li></ul>This content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Strong quarter with big surprise on EPS and above-expectation guidancePositive performance in PCs and automotive sectors, with design wins and partnershipsConcerns over competitive landscape and market expectations, but overall solid performance from Qualcomm and potential for growth opportunities in the futureThis content is sourced through publicly available sources and has been machine generated. Information displayed is for general informational purposes only.

Episode 104: Earnings Thoughts (QCOM, AMD, Arm) and Hypersaler CapEx Steady

Founder/CEO of ROK Advisory, ROK Advisory LLC

Ken S. Kim

Founder/CEO of ROK Advisory

ROK Advisory LLC

ROK is an independent research advisory firm. We guide you to minimize the information gap between foreign and local investors in Northeast Asia with a focus in Korea, Taiwan and Japan.

Independent Research Advisory Firm

<ul>
<li>Politics - where do we go from here and is more uncertainty ahead? </li>
<li>Changes to corporate governance for the better for minority investors? </li>
<li>Can the KOSPI perform if Samsung Electronics continues not to? </li>
</ul>


Politics - where do we go from here and is more uncertainty ahead? 
Changes to corporate governance for the better for minority investors? 
Can the KOSPI perform if Samsung Electronics continues not to? 


United States

QUALCOMM, Inc . manufactures digital wireless communications equipment.  The Company licenses its code division multiple access (CDMA) and orthogonal frequency division multiplexing access intellectual property to other companies, and produces CDMA-based integrated circuits; and produces equipment and software used to track workers and assets; and software for wireless content enablement.

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Qualcomm Inc (QCOM US)

[Wafer Watch] Foundry Loading, 3nm Scarcity, and New Materials Constraints

Samsung’s utilisation improves, TSMC’s 3nm is sold out, InP substrates tighten, and CXMT accelerates its DRAM build-out.

Mint Finance

Japan Picks a Fight with China!! What Happens Now?

Japan is deploying missiles to an island near Taiwan in an escalation of its increased militarism toward China since the PM election last month....

David Mudd

EP 129: Capex to the Moon 2.0! Bubble Debate, and QCOM and Arm Earnings

The current tech bubble in the US has some similarities to past bubbles but also unique characteristics, with infrastructure investment playing a...

The Circuit

Episode 104: Earnings Thoughts (QCOM, AMD, Arm) and Hypersaler CapEx Steady

Overall, Qualcomm had a strong quarter with a big surprise on EPS, profitability, and guidance, despite a dip in after hours trading, due to...

The Circuit

2025 Korea

What to expect in Korea for 2025 after a doldrum 2024? Korea has been one of the better performers to start 2025...can it continue?

Ken S. Kim

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