IPOs and Catalysts/Events, Global Equity Research Ltd

Arun George

IPOs and Catalysts/Events

Uncompromised, Independent, Conflict-Free Research

Global Equity Research Ltd

Global Equity Research was started in 2017 by a group of experienced research professionals. It was founded on a passionate belief in the importance and the need for uncompromised, independent, conflict-free research. We aim to provide differentiated and actionable primary and bottom up fundamental research.

Event-Driven

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/raksul-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27043:1" rel="noopener">Raksul Inc (4384 JP)</a> announced that the <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldman-sachs-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:785:1" rel="noopener">Goldman Sachs Group (GS US)</a>-sponsored MBO price has increased by 11.1% from JPY1,710 to JPY1,900. The offer is final. </li>
<li>Aspex Management, which holds a 4.47% ownership stake, will tender and reinvest into a GS entity. However, the revised offer is below the recent purchases made by Keyrock and MY.Alpha.</li>
<li>GS is continuing discussions with certain institutional investors (one or more of Baillie, Keyrock, MY.Alpha) to likely follow Aspex’s lead, suggesting a divide-and-conquer strategy. </li>
</ul>



Raksul Inc (4384 JP) announced that the Goldman Sachs Group (GS US)-sponsored MBO price has increased by 11.1% from JPY1,710 to JPY1,900. The offer is final. 
Aspex Management, which holds a 4.47% ownership stake, will tender and reinvest into a GS entity. However, the revised offer is below the recent purchases made by Keyrock and MY.Alpha.
GS is continuing discussions with certain institutional investors (one or more of Baillie, Keyrock, MY.Alpha) to likely follow Aspex’s lead, suggesting a divide-and-conquer strategy. 


Raksul (4384 JP): The Success of the Final Offer Hinges on a Divide and Conquer Strategy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events, Quiddity Advisors

Travis Lundy

Pan-Asia Catalysts/Events

Quiddity Advisors

<ul>
<li>In <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/insights/japan-m-a-ceo-chairman-entice-gs-to-sponsor-an-mbo-for-recently-lackluster-raksul-4384" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="insights:214151" rel="noopener">[Japan M&amp;A] CEO &amp; Chairman Entice GS to Sponsor an MBO for Recently Lackluster Raksul (4384)</a> I wrote that this deal was at the wrong price, and "eminently block-able." </li>
<li>Day1 it traded a lot just above terms, then it went higher, then lower. Today it's up strongly after a Nikkei article saying Baillie Gifford is unhappy with the price.</li>
<li>That's about 14% of the register who is apparently <em>explicitly</em> unhappy with the price. It's still block-able. There will likely have to be a bump here.</li>
</ul>


In [Japan M&amp;A] CEO &amp; Chairman Entice GS to Sponsor an MBO for Recently Lackluster Raksul (4384) I wrote that this deal was at the wrong price, and "eminently block-able." 
Day1 it traded a lot just above terms, then it went higher, then lower. Today it's up strongly after a Nikkei article saying Baillie Gifford is unhappy with the price.
That's about 14% of the register who is apparently explicitly unhappy with the price. It's still block-able. There will likely have to be a bump here.


[Japan M&A/Activism] The Raksul MBO Is In Danger; Bump Clearly Needed

<ul>
<li>MY.Alpha <a href="https://disclosure2dl.edinet-fsa.go.jp/searchdocument/pdf/S100XI18.pdf?sv=2020-08-04&amp;st=2026-01-29T07%3A43%3A42Z&amp;se=2031-01-29T15%3A00%3A00Z&amp;sr=b&amp;sp=rl&amp;sig=kPsjKq9fK8jE14Jf9h8xjamls%2B24%2FOOVcFr9lijd1ig%3D" target="_blank" rel="noopener">reported</a> a 5.06% ownership ratio in <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/raksul-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27043:1" rel="noopener">Raksul Inc (4384 JP)</a>. The last purchase was made at JPY1,988.00, a 16.3% premium to the GS-sponsored MBO’s JPY1,710 offer.</li>
<li>The key issue the MBO faces is that potentially three substantial shareholders (Keyrock, Baillie Gifford and MY.Alpha) are seeking improved terms. The offer closes on 4 February.</li>
<li>The high volume traded at or above the offer suggests a bump is inevitable. A 10% bump to MY.Alpha's last purchase price suggests a revised offer of around JPY2,200. </li>
</ul>


MY.Alpha reported a 5.06% ownership ratio in Raksul Inc (4384 JP). The last purchase was made at JPY1,988.00, a 16.3% premium to the GS-sponsored MBO’s JPY1,710 offer.
The key issue the MBO faces is that potentially three substantial shareholders (Keyrock, Baillie Gifford and MY.Alpha) are seeking improved terms. The offer closes on 4 February.
The high volume traded at or above the offer suggests a bump is inevitable. A 10% bump to MY.Alpha's last purchase price suggests a revised offer of around JPY2,200. 


<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/raksul-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27043:1" rel="noopener">Raksul Inc (4384 JP)</a> is a business roll-up business. They do printing, and advertising, and marketing, and supply. They want to be all things to all SMEs. </li>
<li>They are pretty good at it. Revenues and EBIT have been growing at 20-30% a year for years, and are scheduled to grow 19% and 26% for several years ahead.</li>
<li>The bid is up 40% from last, but that gets them to a 30-month high. The register is very open. Lots of active institutional shareholders who have to agree. Maybe.</li>
</ul>



Raksul Inc (4384 JP) is a business roll-up business. They do printing, and advertising, and marketing, and supply. They want to be all things to all SMEs. 
They are pretty good at it. Revenues and EBIT have been growing at 20-30% a year for years, and are scheduled to grow 19% and 26% for several years ahead.
The bid is up 40% from last, but that gets them to a 30-month high. The register is very open. Lots of active institutional shareholders who have to agree. Maybe.


[Japan M&A] CEO & Chairman Entice GS to Sponsor an MBO for Recently Lackluster Raksul (4384)

<ul>
<li>
<a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/raksul-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:27043:1" rel="noopener">Raksul Inc (4384 JP)</a> has recommended a <a href="https://www.smartkarma.com/entities/goldman-sachs-group-inc" target="_blank" data-smartkarma-citation="entities:785:1" rel="noopener">Goldman Sachs Group (GS US)</a>-sponsored MBO at JPY1,710, a 39.5% premium to the last close.</li>
<li>While the process is lacking (no auction), the offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples, analyst price targets and historical trading ranges. </li>
<li>The offer aligns with the midpoint of the target IFA DCF valuation range. Barring an emergence of an activist, this should get done. </li>
</ul>



Raksul Inc (4384 JP) has recommended a Goldman Sachs Group (GS US)-sponsored MBO at JPY1,710, a 39.5% premium to the last close.
While the process is lacking (no auction), the offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples, analyst price targets and historical trading ranges. 
The offer aligns with the midpoint of the target IFA DCF valuation range. Barring an emergence of an activist, this should get done. 


Raksul (4384 JP): GS-Sponsored MBO at JPY1,710

Japan

Raksul, Inc. provides Internet based services. The Company mainly offers net printing, net transportation, and other services. Raksul provides services in Japan.

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Raksul Inc (4384 JP)

Raksul (4384 JP): The Success of the Final Offer Hinges on a Divide and Conquer Strategy

Shares are trading marginally higher than the revised and final offer. GS is continuing discussions with one or more of the activists, suggesting a...

Arun George

[Japan M&A/Activism] The Raksul MBO Is In Danger; Bump Clearly Needed

Today is the last day for the extension. It is Bump Or Walk time. A UBS customer, Keyrock, MY.Alpha, and now a Morgan Stanley MUFG account own 25%...

Travis Lundy

Raksul (4384 JP): Primed for a Bump

Keyrock has increased its holding from 8.53% to 8.74% of out. shares. Notably, on 19 December 2025, it bought 2.2 million shares (3.69% of out....

Arun George

Raksul (4384 JP): GS-Sponsored MBO at JPY1,710

While the process is lacking, the offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples, analyst price targets and historical trading ranges. Barring an...

Arun George

Price Gauge

52-week Range

Market Cap (USDm)

P/E

Dividend (Yield)

Raksul (4384 JP): The Success of the Final Offer Hinges on a Divide and Conquer Strategy

Shares are trading marginally higher than the revised and final offer. GS is continuing discussions with one or more of the activists, suggesting a...

Arun George

[Japan M&A/Activism] The Raksul MBO Is In Danger; Bump Clearly Needed

Today is the last day for the extension. It is Bump Or Walk time. A UBS customer, Keyrock, MY.Alpha, and now a Morgan Stanley MUFG account own 25%...

Travis Lundy

Raksul (4384 JP): Primed for a Bump

Keyrock has increased its holding from 8.53% to 8.74% of out. shares. Notably, on 19 December 2025, it bought 2.2 million shares (3.69% of out....

Arun George

[Japan M&A] CEO & Chairman Entice GS to Sponsor an MBO for Recently Lackluster Raksul (4384)

Since I last wrote, the stock is up a bit but there is no news. UBS AG has increased its stake. Matsumoto-san has filed another amendment to...

Travis Lundy

Raksul (4384 JP): GS-Sponsored MBO at JPY1,710

While the process is lacking, the offer is reasonable compared to peer multiples, analyst price targets and historical trading ranges. Barring an...

Arun George